Series Preview: Mets Look to Bounce Back Against Dodgers

For the first time this season, the New York Mets (30-20) have endured a rough stretch. Back-to-back series defeats at the hands of the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox have dropped them to second place in the National League East. The offense has really dried up, scoring 1.87 runs per game over their last eight. However, they were able to muster up five runs in their lone win against the Red Sox on Wednesday. Brett Baty continued his recent hot stretch, collecting two hits and three runs batted in.

The Mets will look to pick things up against the Los Angeles Dodgers (31-19), who are missing plenty of important players due to injury. Some of the notable absences include Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow. Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups.

• Friday: Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 11.25 ERA) vs. Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.47 ERA): Kershaw has spent quite some time on the injured list in recent years. Since the start of last season, he has made a total of eight starts. A toe injury and a torn meniscus cut his 2024 campaign short, with the recovery carrying over to the start of this season. Kershaw made his season debut against the Los Angeles Angels last Saturday, allowing five earned runs in four innings. Canning is enjoying the best stretch of his career. He has made six consecutive starts in which he’s allowed two earned runs or less, dating back to April 17. He is a remarkable 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in four home starts. Canning will look to continue his strong form against the Dodgers, who he has faced four times in his career.
• Saturday: Tony Gonsolin (2-0, 4.05 ERA) vs. David Peterson (2-2, 2.86 ERA): Gonsolin really established himself in 2022 at the age of 28, going 16-1 with 2.14 ERA en route to an All-Star nod. Like Kershaw, the years since have included all kinds of injuries. Gonsolin was forced to miss all of the 2024 campaign due to Tommy John surgery. He threw a season-high 97 pitches last time out against the Angels. One can argue Peterson has been the most consistent arm in the Mets’ rotation. Over his first nine starts, he has given up two earned runs or less in eight of them. His ability to limit damage in critical spots has played a big part in his success. Opponents are hitting .174 with a .495 OPS when there’s runners in scoring position and two outs against Peterson.
• Sunday: Landon Knack (2-1, 6.17 ERA) vs. Kodai Senga (4-3, 1.43 ERA): Knack has been given an extended opportunity in the Dodgers’ rotation. So far, he has yet to take advantage. Over his last 9 2/3 innings, Knack has allowed nine runs and four home runs. His only career appearance against the Mets came in Game 2 of the NLCS, giving up five runs in two innings of relief. Start after start, Senga continues to gain rhythm and show why he is an ace. His 1.43 ERA is pacing the National League and trails only Max Fried of the New York Yankees for the MLB lead. Importantly, Senga has allowed just one home run this season. He is 2-1 with a 0.44 ERA in four starts at home.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

A rematch of the 2024 NLCS is the focus this weekend. The Mets’ improbable postseason run ended at the hands of the Dodgers, who went on to beat the Yankees in the World Series. These two teams could very well meet in October again. Some would even expect them to. This series will serve as a potential tease for what could happen down the line.

PREDICTION 

The Mets have been fantastic at Citi Field, owning a 17-5 record at home. After a disappointing road trip, they will be happy to return to Queens. The Dodgers at full-strength would likely be favored to win this series, but as currently constructed, the same cannot be said. I like the Mets to answer the call, coming home to take two of three from the defending champions.

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