Investors think the S&P 500 has already peaked for the year, JPMorgan survey says

• Investors surveyed by JPMorgan expect the S&P 500 to remain under 6,000 for the next 12 months.
• Most respondents expect the US economy to enter a period of stagflation.
• A large cohort remains committed to buying shares of the Magnificent Seven mega-cap tech stocks.

The S&P 500 has already peaked this year and won't reclaim its 2025 high in the next 12 months, according to investors surveyed by JPMorgan.

"An overwhelming 93% see the S&P 500 at 6,000 or below over the next 12 months, with 40% expecting the S&P 500 to stay in the current range of 5,000 to 5,500," the bank wrote on Friday, summarizing an April survey of 495 investors.

The group agreed that it's highly unlikely for the benchmark index to reach its February record of 6,144. Close to a third expect it to fall below the 5,000 mark this year.

The results are a far cry from the bullish projections that preceded Donald Trump's presidential victory in the fall. Some saw the S&P climbing as high as 6,500 in 2025, and that path looked plausible until tariffs dashed hopes for another year of stellar gains.

The bull run petered out as Trump's protectionist trade policies slowed market momentum and raised recession fears. After the White House announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on April 2, the S&P 500 briefly plunged into bear market territory.

JPMorgan respondents agree that trade wars and tariff uncertainties will trigger economic consequences, with 20% of survey respondens bracing for a hard landing recession. A broader 61% anticipate stagflation to hit the US economy in the next 12 months.

That scenario, in which inflation keeps rising amid slowing economic growth, is supported by expectations of 3% US core PCE inflation by the end of this year.

Investors also forecast more dollar weakness in 2025, expanding a trend sparked by Trump's tariffs. The greenback's decline is considered a signal that investors are losing faith in US assets, helping explain a recent sell-off in US Treasurys.

Despite market pessimism sweeping across the survey, stock market respondents haven't given up bullish hopes for the Magnificent 7 mega-cap tech stocks.

"Despite the lack of conviction on the outlook for the S&P 500, 41% still view the Mag-7/GenAI theme as a multi-year investment opportunity, preferring to buy on dips, and another 9% prefer to ignore the noise and will continue to increase their allocation," the note said.