Taiwan on edge after Pope Francis's death, closely watching Vatican-China relations

KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan - Some in Taiwan are watching with growing unease as the Catholic Church prepares to elect a new leader following the death of Pope Francis. The Holy See is the only European state that maintains diplomatic relations with Taipei, but some fear the growing ties between the Vatican and Beijing could change things.

Taiwan is home to fewer than 300,000 Catholics. By contrast, estimates put the number of Catholics in communist China at anywhere between eight and 12 million, with another 390,000 in Chinese-ruled Hong Kong. Despite these figures, the Holy See continues to recognize Taiwan as the sole "China."

After Pope Francis’ death, Taiwan’s President William Lai quickly said he planned to attend the funeral. A short time later, however, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that former Vice President and devout Catholic Chen Chien-jen will be Taiwan’s envoy. 

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According to Taipei-based lawyer and political risk analyst Ross Feingold, Taiwan will be disappointed that President Lai will miss this gathering of world leaders. "The precedent exists for Taiwan’s president to attend a pope’s funeral. In 2005, then-President Chen Shui-bian attended John Paul II’s funeral, so," he claimed, "it’s safe to assume President Lai’s team inquired whether Lai could attend Francis’ funeral, and equally safe to assume the Holy See’s response was a negative one."

After Pope Francis took office in 2013, the Vatican began to build ties with Beijing. In 2018, it signed a controversial agreement with China on the appointment of bishops. The deal—renewed and extended several times—gives both sides input on bishop selection, an attempt to bridge the divide between China’s state-run Catholic Church and an underground church loyal to Rome. Vatican officials insist the agreement is pastoral, not political. Still, for Taiwan, it is seen as a warning sign.

China, which cut ties with the Holy See in 1951, demands that all countries end diplomatic relations with Taiwan before establishing relations with Beijing. Taiwan’s official allies now number but 12, and the Holy See is its most symbolically significant diplomatic partner.

But Thomas Tu, a Vatican diplomacy expert at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, told Fox News Digital that fears of an imminent switch are overblown. "This isn’t just about politics—it’s about the global Catholic mission," Tu said. "The Vatican has survived empires. It’s patient." Tu cited the Vatican’s relationship with Vietnam as evidence of pragmatic patience. China and Vietnam do not have formal ties, but the Vatican maintains a high-level religious representative there.

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Pope Francis believed that engagement with China, however imperfect, is preferable to nothing. Francis was the first pope to fly through Chinese airspace and famously sent greetings to President Xi Jinping in 2014. On his visit to Mongolia in 2023, the pontiff also sent a "warm greeting to the noble Chinese people."

Each overture to Beijing has drawn criticism from within the Church, particularly from outspoken China critics, such as 93-year-old retired Cardinal Joseph Zen of Hong Kong, who was arrested in 2022 after China imposed a National Security Law that criminalized almost every form of dissent in that supposedly autonomous special administrative region. Zen's passport was recently returned to him by authorities so he could attend the pope's funeral.

Zen and others view any warming of ties with Beijing as kowtowing to an officially atheist regime.

Since 1957, Beijing, via its Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association, has kept a tight leash on millions of Chinese Catholics. Pope Francis accepted some compromises with China, but the Vatican wants autonomy in spiritual matters, which may require a miracle to accomplish under China’s one-party dictatorship.

Some observers suggest that Beijing may eventually allow more space for the Vatican, but any formal deal would require the Holy See to sever ties with Taiwan, a non-negotiable prerequisite for China. 

With a new pope being elected in the next month, some in Taiwan are worried about a shift, but few experts believe the next pontiff will make any hasty decisions. "There’s no rush," said Dr. Chang Ching, a Senior Research Fellow of the ROC Society for Strategic Studies, "The Vatican knows how to wait, and China isn’t willing yet to grant the Chinese Catholic community the same privileges Catholics enjoy in most other nations. This seventy-plus-year rift is just a tiny moment in the long history of the Church and the even longer history of Chinese civilization."