How democracy in Turkey is on a decline under Erdogan
With the U.S. and Europe distracted by multiple political and economic issues, the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan saw an opportunity to eliminate his main political rival and further secure his hold on power. The Mayor of İstanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu was arrested on 19 March. While it may help Erdoğan in the short term, it accelerated Turkey’s slow decline into authoritarianism.
Erdoğan has held the reins of power continuously for twenty-two years. He became Prime Minister in 2003 following electoral success by the fledgling AK (Justice and Development) Party. As Prime Minister, he used his legislative majority to engineer constitutional changes that shifted executive power from the Prime Minister to the President. He then successfully became President in 2014. Having secured reelection in a unique runoff in 2024, he will not face the electorate again until May of 2028. His actions indicate he would like to remain in power even longer.
İmamoğlu emerged as a rival following his election as mayor of İstanbul, Turkey’s largest city, in March 2019. This was a major blow to Erdoğan and the AK Party, which had controlled the city for a quarter-century. The AK Party tried to void the election results in the city of 16 million, alleging irregularities. The challenge resulted in a repeat of the election a few months later, which İmamoğlu also won. He retained his seat following elections in 2024 where the CH (Republican Peoples’) Party made significant gains nationwide.
Since he was elected Mayor, İmamoğlu has faced multiple criminal cases designed to discredit him as a leader and diminish his popularity as a candidate. So far, all the charges appear to be at best weak and at worst fabricated. Nevertheless, if convicted, he could face prison and a political ban.
He is currently appealing a 2022 conviction for insulting members of Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Council. Additionally, İstanbul University recently discovered after 30 years that there may be some issues with credits transferred from a university in Northern Cyprus that invalidate his diploma. If upheld, the decision effectively bars him from running for president, since the position requires candidates to be university graduates. As with the other accusations, this will have to be settled in the courts.
There has been significant public outrage over the treatment of İmamoğlu both domestically and internationally. Of course, the CHP is outspoken. Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş calls it an embarrassment and CHP leader Özgür Özel compares it to “Italian mafia methods.” Other opposition groups within Turkey have made similar comments.
More significant has been the international reaction. It appears that no government has issued a statement supporting Erdoğan’s actions. The U.S. government has remained silent, which could be interpreted as tacit support for Erdoğan. In contrast, support for İmamoğlu has been extensive. The EU has sent a delegation to meet with him in prison and most individual EU member countries as well as other bodies have expressed support. The Council of Europe, which focuses on promoting human rights and democracy, demanded İmamoğlu’s immediate release while Soner Çağaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (and an Erdoğan biographer) characterized Erdoğan’s actions as exclusively focused on removing a political rival.
Of course this is a disturbing event in isolation, but it needs to be put into context to be fully appreciated. When he first came to power in 2003, Erdoğan said all the right things. He appeared to work toward EU membership. Riding a wave of global economic prosperity, he embarked on a massive infrastructure program focused on airports, roads, and urban development. He has remained on this course regardless of the costs. The results are certainly impressive for foreign visitors, but they do not appear to have had an appropriate impact on the economy. The overall and per capita GDP have not grown at a rate commiserate with such an investment. Granted, due to Erdoğan’s adherence to fringe economic theories, inflation has been devastating. It is currently at 39%, down from a high of 78%. Taken together, Inflation, an excessive reliance on imports, and to a lesser extent foreign denominated debt have combined to suppress the economy. In response to the public outcry against this mishandling and other grievances, there are currently thousands of political prisoners and hundreds of jailed journalists across Turkey.
This sort of behavior has frequently been overlooked, and Turkey has been euphemistically referred to as a “competitive” authoritarian state, where different parties retained the ability to occasionally win elections. Recent events, not just the imprisonment of İmamoğlu, but also the brutal suppression and imprisonment of thousands of protestors and journalists, have pulled down this façade. Erdoğan does not adhere to the democratic and secularist foundations of the Republic of Turkey. He is an Islamist and is socially conservative, drawing support from rural, conservative, and religious groups. He has never shown commitment to the democratic process, unless that process appears to be working in his favor.
Authoritarianism is a bankrupt form of government. Authoritarian regimes seldom last more than a few decades and never produce sustainable wealth and prosperity for their citizens. It is past time to recognize this reality and take more aggressive steps to encourage Turkey back onto a viable path.
Martin A. Perryman, a retired U.S. Army Colonel, is a defense and foreign policy expert.