California’s hiring rate falls to lowest since 2010

The weakness in California’s job market is not what you might think.

In 2024, California bosses grew staffing by 131,000 workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was 15% slower than 2023’s job creation.

Minus the pandemic era’s gyrations, it was the worst year for California employment since the post-Great Recession’s 115,600 decline in 2010. And, historically speaking, job growth was 15% below the average employment boost since 2000.

The bureau also tracks moves by bosses and workers that contribute to swings in statewide employment. My trusty spreadsheet looked at California’s “JOLTS” report – formally the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey – back to its initial tallies for 2001. Statistically speaking, 2024 was largely a return to normal.

For perspective’s sake, remember the pandemic-era workplace challenges, from staff cuts during 2020’s coronavirus-linked business restrictions to a rush to rehire in 2021 and 2022 once the economy reopened. And don’t forget the depth of the Great Recession’s employment pain in 2008-09.

But your paycheck is definitely a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately issue. So recent job swings, even if modest, have an emotional punch.

Cautious cuts

You may be surprised to learn that California’s “layoffs and discharges” declined last year.

Yes, despite all the headlines about job cuts and store closings and headquarters relocations, 2024 was a relatively average year for California layoffs.

Job cuts in 2024 were the sixth-lowest level in the 24-year history of this statistic, 1% below 2023 and 14% below average.

And as a share of all California jobs, getting a pink slip in 2024 equaled 1% of workers statewide, the third-lowest level on record. It’s flat with 2023 and below the 1.3% 24-year average. The rate’s peak was 2.5% in 2020. And the low, 0.9% came in 2022.

Adding slowly

What is truly troubling in California’s job market is the reluctance of bosses to add new workers.

Last year, the number of hires fell 8% from 2023 and were 3% below average. But the cooldown in California hiring is clearly seen in its share of all jobs.

The hiring rate was 2.9% last year, the third-lowest on record and the slowest pace since 2010.

Hiring’s slice of all California jobs is down from 2023’s 3.1% and it’s below the 3.4% 24-year average. Hiring’s extremes swing from 4.1% in 2020 to 2.7% in 2009.

What’s available?

California workers seeking new jobs may be the most frustrated.

Workplace angst may be up because “help wanted” is down 23% from 2023 – even if it’s 18% above average.

Look at the meager opportunities as a share of the California job market. Last year it was 3.7% – the lowest since 2015 – and down from 2023’s 4.8%. Yes, it’s higher than the 3.5% 24-year average. This staffing metric has ranged from 6.6% in 2022 to 1.8% in 2009.

Who quit?

Some gurus say the job market’s psyche is best watched through how many workers are willing to say “goodbye” to the boss.

California employees in 2024 sensed fewer opportunities and stayed put. Total quits were 10% below 2023 yet remained 7% above average. And as a slice of all jobs, leaving on your own is roughly back to normal.

Last year, 1.7% of California workers voluntarily departed – the slowest pace since 2014. It was below 2023’s 1.9% but just above the 1.8% 24-year average.

This measure of worker dissatisfaction has gyrated from 2.4% in 2022’s “great resignation” days to 1.2% amid the Great Recession in 2009.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com