UFC Kansas City predictions
Ian Machado Garry has long been the one taking aim at the top of the welterweight rankings. Now, he finds himself defending his spot against one of the hottest fighters in the division.
Carlos Prates has won four straight fights, recorded four straight knockouts, and won five straight $50,000 bonuses, and he looks to extend all those streaks when he takes on Garry- - No. 6 in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings - in the UFC Kansas City main event on Saturday. It’s a step up for Prates, who is coming off of highlight-reel victories against veterans Neil Magny and Li Jingliang.
The buzz atop their division currently revolves around champion Belal Muhammad defending against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315 on May 10, and the possibility that Muhammad’s close friend, UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, could move to 170 pounds should Della Maddalena emerge victorious. That possibility muddles the contender picture, not to mention the presence of other viable challengers such as Sean Brady, Shavkat Rakhmonov (currently sidelined with an injury), and the winner of the just-announced UFC Atlanta main event between former champion Kamaru Usman and Joaquin Buckley.
One thing is for sure, whoever impresses in Saturday’s headliner won’t be far from a title shot regardless of how the rest of the division shakes out over the next few months.
In other main card action, one-time light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith makes his final walk to the octagon when he takes on Zhang Mingyang, Giga Chikadze defends his tenuous hold on the featherweight from David Onama, Michel Pereira looks to bounce back from a disappointing loss when he meets Abus Magomedov in a middleweight bout, and more.
What: UFC Kansas City
Where: T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo.
When: Saturday, April 26. The eight-fight preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Ian Machado Garry (6) vs. Carlos Prates
It might not be the sexiest aspect of combat sports, but Saturday’s main event is all about distance control.
Ian Machado Garry fancies himself an elite technical striker and he’s certainly backed that up. He’s excellent at avoiding damage, which is somewhat important when you’re dealing with Carlos Prates, whose knockout power I would describe as “insane” to use a technical term. Prates has as deadly a left hand as any fighter in recent memory and it won’t take many to put Garry down.
So it falls upon Garry to mix things up and spend as little time in the pocket with Prates as possible. Not only can Prates score from range, he’s also great at slipping shots inside and setting up his own power strikes (did I mention his left hand?). Garry can absolutely win a striking battle, but every minute on the feet is playing with fire.
Garry needs to go to his grappling when the openings present themselves. This is a five-round fight and he should have the edge in cardio, having gone a hard 25 minutes twice in his career. Prates has zero experience fighting past Round 3.
In a war of attrition (assuming Garry avoids the big kibosh early), Garry wears Prates down and submits him in the fourth.
Pick: Garry
Anthony Smith vs. Zhang Mingyang
Anthony Smith, whatever happens next, we salute you.
Never a world beater or a blue-chip prospect by any stretch of the imagination, Smith not only established himself as a light heavyweight contender in the UFC, he fought for the title and was one moral quandary away from taking the title from Jon Jones via disqualification. Keep in mind, Smith was 27 fights into his pro career when he made the move over from Strikeforce and 36 fights in when he started his second UFC run that has lasted for almost a decade.
Full disclosure, I’ll always have a fondness for Smith as he was the first interview I ever did as part of the MMA Fighting team. He was still a middleweight and barely a blip on the casual fan’s radar, so seeing him blossom into a headlining fighter and a mainstay of UFC broadcasts has been a joy to watch. I salute you, “Lionheart.”
I’m also picking against you.
Win or lose, Smith is going out on his own terms and we should all respect that. I’m just going with the obvious choice in the younger, less battle-worn Zhang. A Smith win should shock no one as it wasn’t that long ago Zhang was facing far inferior competition and this could be a bridge too far for the 26-year-old. I’m guessing his raw ability gets him through and leads to an knockout in the first.
Pick: Zhang
Giga Chikadze (14) vs. David Onama
I imagine the biggest question about this matchup you all have is this: “Giga Chikadze is still ranked?”
Yes, it’s been a while since Chikadze has looked truly worthy of a top 15 ranking (his knockout of Edson Barboza? August 2021!), but his only UFC losses are to Arnold Allen and Calvin Kattar, so there’s no shame in that and I’d argue few featherweights have broken out of a dense middle of the pack to take his spot. I could be wrong, but that’s my take.
Regardless, the truth shall be known tonight as he fights the dangerous David Onama. We’re still waiting for Onama to put it all together, but he’s starting to figure out who he is: A fast fighter with improving boxing and quality takedown defense. He’ll have to work hard to get past Chikadze’s more seasoned striking. Fortunately for Onama, output is not an issue and he presents plenty of problems for Chikadze in his own right.
Even though I’m going with Onama by decision, I still expect this to be a close one.
Pick: Onama
Michel Pereira (15) vs. Abus Magomedov
We got a better idea of Michel Pereira’s ceiling in his loss to Anthony Hernandez. Pereira has never been known for his outstanding cardio, so “Fluffy” was his kryptonite and it became evident that Pereira might not be built for MMA marathons.
That deficiency could rear its ugly head against Abus Magomedov, who is comfortable going the distance to win a fight. He has a lot of defensive weaknesses that Pereira can exploit, so Magomedov has to be at his conservative best if he wants to avoid being on the wrong end of a highlight here.
With respect to Magomedov, he’s exactly the kind of opponent that Pereira is built to style on. Not a threat to push the pace, hittable, and a step slower in the standup. I like Pereira to put on a vintage performance here, snatching the win and keeping his dim title hopes alive.
Pick: Pereira
Randy Brown vs. Nicolas Dalby
This battle of seasoned welterweights has splitty city written all over it.
There’s not a lot separating Randy Brown and Nicolas Dalby, two veterans who have seen it all and are models for the modern MMA fighter. Striking? They do that. Wrestling? They do that. Grappling? They do that. Cardio? They’ve got it. This is excellent matchmaking, just don’t expect it to be guaranteed sparks, since both fighters are so well-rounded they’ll be stifling each other’s attempts to pull away on the scorecards at every turn.
Brown’s creativity and size are enough to put him over the top in this matchup, though Dalby will do everything he can to make the fight uncomfortable. Look for Brown to be a step ahead for three rounds, scoring just enough to win over a couple of judges and get back on the winning track.
Pick: Brown
Ikram Aliskerov vs. Andre Muniz
Our main card opener should end in a finish with Ikram Aliskerov showing off his knockout prowess or Andre Muniz breaking out his incredible grappling game. On the other hand, this could get real middleweighty.
Just picture a scenario where Aliskerov is standoffish due to the fear of a takedown and where Muniz is endlessly feinting and changing levels in fear of an Aliskerov KO blow. You can see it, can’t you? Isn’t it wonderful?
With that jinx out of the way, I’m going with Aliskerov to put hands (and kicks and possibly knees) on Muniz. Aliskerov moves amazingly well for a 185er and he generates power power quickly. As much as it sucks to point this out, Muniz hasn’t fought in over 500 days and he turned 35 this past February, so whatever athletic shortcomings he had in the past will only be further emphasized now.
Aliskerov by first-round knockout.
Pick: Aliskerov
Preliminaries
Matt Schnell def. Jimmy Flick
Evan Elder def. Gauge Young
Chris Gutierrez def. John Castaneda
Da’Mon Blackshear def. Alatengheili
Malcolm Wellmaker def. Cameron Saaiman
Jaqueline Amorim def. Polyana Viana