UFC Kansas City Gambling Preview: Will Carlos Prates keep the Fighting Nerds magic alive?
Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates are set to get after it.
On Saturday, Garry and Prates face off in the main event of UFC Kansas City, in a welterweight headliner with serious title implications. Should Garry win, he’s right back in the mix at 170 pounds following his narrow loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov, while if Prates wins, that’s five in a row for the Fighting Nerds representative who was an overnight sensation in 2024.
Who gets it done this weekend, and what about the rest of the action? Let’s dive into the best bets.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Single Plays
Ian Machado Garry (-138)
This pick hurts my soul, because Prates is a joy to watch and root for, but I think the Fighting Nerds momentum is about to face its first real setback.
Fans knock on Garry for a number of reasons — both reasonable and silly — but you can’t deny he’s an extremely talented young man. The Shavkat fight showed us just how talented as he very nearly took the 0 from the guy many people believe is a future champion. Some of that can come down to Rakhmonov being injured heading into the fight, but just as much of it is because Garry is very well-rounded and presents problems in all phases. That’s the concern for Prates.
“The Marlboro Man” — I’m coining this nickname — is the more dynamic and dangerous striker but he can be reckless, and Garry is dangerous in his own right on the feet. Moreover, Garry has the better grappling game, and probably the better cardio considering he doesn’t smoke all that often. That’s a lot of small advantages that add up to a Garry W on Saturday.
Andre Muniz (+395)
Muniz faces Ikram Aliskerov, and while Aliskerov is a rightful favorite, this is too big. Muniz has had some setbacks, but he remains a dangerous grappler, and Aliskerov is a good wrestler, but not an elite one. If Muniz can get ahold of Aliskerov, he’s going to have a decent shot at making something happen.
Chelsea Chandler (+245)
Chandler takes on Joselyne Edwards in the opening bout of the evening and these odds are way off. Edwards is not some world-beater, and she’s also not a great defensive wrestler. While Chandler has flaws, she can get takedowns and make this a gritty fight. Chandler has only lost to established names at 135, and while Edwards should maybe be the favorite, she shouldn’t be so by this much.
Prop Bets
Zhang Mingyang KO/TKO in Round 1 (+120)
I also take not joy in writing this, but it must be done. On Saturday, Anthony Smith makes his final walk to the cage, and I don’t think it’s going to go well for him. Smith isn’t that old in real life, but he’s got a lot of miles on him and his chin — which was never legendary or anything — isn’t what it used to be.
Zhang is a big-time hitter who doesn’t get paid by the round. In fact, his past 15 fights have ell ended in the first frame of action. I expect nothing different this time around.
Randy Brown by Points (+110)
This is a simple math equation: Randy Brown is the better all-around fighter + Nicolas Dalby doesn’t get finished = Randy Brown by Points. Dalby is on a good run a form lately, but he’s old, and Brown is the more dynamic fighter. Should be a simple enough decision victory for “Rude Boy.”
Wrap Up
Sadly, FanDuel does not have lines up on the KSW fight between Mariusz Pudzianowski and Eddie Hall, but if they did, I’d be heavy on Eddie. Pudzianowski is obviously the real MMA fighter, but he’s also nearly 50 and giving up like 80 pounds.
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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