Posthaste: Canadian travel boycott hits American economy in realtime Fed snapshot
Canadians’ ongoing boycott of travelling to the United States is showing up in the U.S. Federal Reserve ‘s real-time snapshot of the American economy , which one economist called a “really big deal.”
The Fed’s Beige Book, released on Wednesday, includes reports from cities across the U.S. that say Canadian travel has noticeably fallen off in many regions across the country.
“I’ve been doing this for 40 years, and it’s the first time I’ve ever seen a Beige Book replete with so many comments about not just a Canadian boycott, but an international boycott against travel to the United States,” David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., said.
The Beige Book, which he called “the most comprehensive qualitative analysis on the U.S. economy,” provides a snapshot of the 12 Fed districts. The information is anecdotal, gathered from businesses and community leaders, and provides a way to keep an eye on the economy from the ground up. It also provides insights into emerging trends ahead of incoming data that can be backward-looking.
“Both leisure and business travel were down, on balance, and several districts noted a decline in international visitors,” the Beige Book’s national summary said.
Tourism operators in nine of the districts reported a noticeable decline in travel by Canadians.
“Travel from Canada declined noticeably, and contacts feared that summer travel from Europe and China could suffer as well because of negative reactions to U.S. tariff policies,” the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston said. “More broadly, tourism contacts expressed concerns that declining consumer confidence could hurt leisure spending.”
The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis said: “Tourism contacts also reported declines in Canadian travellers and related spending; a North Dakota retailer saw a ‘deep impact’ starting in mid-February, pushing first-quarter revenues down seven percent.”
Those are just a couple of comments in the Beige Book, which also contained similar remarks from the New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas and San Francisco districts.
“Canadians have taken matters into their own hands in the form of switching to Canadian-made products wherever they can and by choosing to vacation at home instead of heading south,” Rosenberg said.
Data from Canada bears that latter point out.
The number of Canadians travelling to the U.S. in March, the most recent data available from Statistics Canada, fell by 13.5 per cent for air travel and 32 per cent for land travel from the same time last year.
Experts are attributing the decline to anger regarding U.S. tariffs and Donald Trump’s threats on Canada’s sovereignty , as well as a rising Canadian dollar versus the greenback and an increase in the number of travellers being detained at the U.S. border.
The U.S. travel industry is worth billions of dollars to the American economy, with Rosenberg estimating it accounts for 10 per cent of gross domestic product because it is a “multiplier” sector, meaning it touches all kinds of industries.
“People will shrug their shoulders and say, ‘Oh, travel and tourism, big deal.’ Yeah, well, guess what? It is a big deal,” he said. “Because when you look at travel and tourism and everything it touches, it’s bigger. It’s a bigger deal than the auto sector, which does grab the front pages of the newspapers.”
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With peak travel season fast approaching and many Canadians expected to spend their summer vacations close to home, paying less at the gas pumps would be a welcome relief. Fortunately, gas prices dropped after Prime Minister Mark Carney signed a directive to remove the consumer carbon charge effective April 1, and they’re expected to stay down over the next few months. — Jane Switzer, Financial Post
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Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.
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