Halfway through his term, is Marcos close to fulfilling rice promise?

Two weeks before the elections, and right after a survey showing measly approval of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the administration announced a P20-kilo rice program in the Visayas region.

This comes midway through Marcos’ term, three years after he promised cheap rice for Filipino voters.

But before this, a spate of efforts to reduce rice prices came: setting a price cap and then lifting it, lowering tariffs for imported rice, declaring a food security emergency, and setting a maximum suggested retail price.

In the Philippines, rice is life, politics, economics, culture. It is the stuff that electoral promises are made of. It is also a measure of good governance and a functioning economy, Jayson Cainglet of agricultural group Sinag told Rappler.

“Tumaas o bumaba, ‘yung presyo ng bigas would impact ‘yung savings [ng pamilya] o lalo pang pagkalugi ng isang pamilya,” Cainglet told Rappler.

(Whether rice prices increase or drop, they would impact a family’s savings or worsen a family’s budget deficit.)

If rice is a metric for good governance, how does the Marcos administration fare? Cainglet said their group’s assessment is mixed. “The problem now is that consumers are being satisfied, but producers are left behind,” Cainglet told Rappler.

Filipinos’ top concern that resulted in Marcos’ drop in approval ratings is how the administration has been controlling prices.

Administration bets defended the timing of the rice program. Former Senate president Vicente “Tito” Sotto III echoed the oft-repeated phrase “better late than never.”

“Ganoon talaga, whatever timing it is, kahit last year pa ‘yan sasabihin n’yan konektado sa eleksiyon ‘yan,” Sotto told reporters in Pangasinan on Friday, April 25. (That’s how it goes, whatever timing, even if this was done last year, they will say this is connected to the elections.)

Meanwhile, Makati Mayor Abby Binay said, “It’s only been three years.”

“Kung maibibigay mo na ngayon, ibigay mo na,” Binay said. “Hindi mo puwedeng sabihin na maghihintay ako ng magandang timing.” (If you can give it now, give it. You can’t say you’re waiting for better timing.)

Woes of local farmers

When the Department of Agriculture declared a food security emergency on rice back in February, it hoped for two things: that the release of National Food Authority stocks in the market will lead to a drop in prices, and that warehouses would be free from stocks before the harvest season starts.

Rice prices in the global market had been dropping in recent months. Prices in the Philippines were bound to follow. However, the government’s hope that local governments would flock to avail of cheap NFA rice didn’t happen.

“Hindi ramdam dito sa baba, sa diyaryo lang, sa media,” Oftociano Manalo, president of farmers’ group Pambansang Mannalon, Maguuma, Magbabaul Magsasaka ng Pilipinas told Rappler when asked about the impact of the food emergency in their area.

(It’s not felt here on the ground, only in the newspapers, in the media.)

“[N]angangahulugan na hindi tama ‘yung ginawa nilang reduction ng taripa para bumaba ang presyo so nag-declare sila ng emergency,” added Manalo.

(What this implies is that their tariff reduction did not lower prices so they had to declare an emergency.)

Manalo’s main concern is that local producers are having a hard time struggling with high production cost and dealing with late farm inputs such as seedlings and fertilizers from the government.

He said that if farm inputs came before they actually harvest, this can dramatically cut their costs.

After doing rounds in their area in Pangasinan, Manalo said rice farmers are selling fresh palay at P15 per kilo and dry palay at P16.50 to P18 per kilo.

Reducing tariffs facilitates cheaper imported rice for Filipino consumers. But this could also make it harder for local farmers to keep prices competitive.

Lowering retail prices must mean lowering farm gate prices and production costs (and if possible, even increasing yield). Why should farmers be burdened by others’ electoral promises?

Consumers and farmers are “two competing priorities” that the government is hard put to balance, according to a policy brief published in March 2025 by the University of Melbourne.

Reducing tariffs and rice prices “is a popular move as elections near,” the brief read.

Further, it said: “Successive governments have consistently prioritized rice self-sufficiency, as shortages and price hikes often lead to public unrest, prompting state intervention in production, pricing, and distribution. Rice is thus more than just a crop — it is a savory political commodity that impacts the national discourse and public policy.”

Beyond election gimmickry

The timing of the P20/kilo rice program in the Visayas has made some camps skeptical.

“Hindi ito ang katuparan ng ipinangako ni Marcos noong 2022 elections,” labor leader and senatorial bet Leody de Guzman said in response. (This is not a fulfillment of Marcos’ promise during the 2022 elections.)

Peasant groups Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas and Amihan called the move “a desperate ploy to salvage crumbling public trust.”

“It is a thinly veiled electoral gimmick, aimed at deflecting criticism and pacifying growing unrest and discontent from the public and among Duterte loyalists in the region,” the groups said.

Progressive camps took this opportunity to criticize the Rice Tariffication Law, which liberalized rice imports. The Philippines is dependent on rice imports to augment demand. To be fair, criticisms of the law are not coming exclusively from opposition groups. The Palace and the agriculture department had been pushing for reforms — if only to give the NFA capacity to intervene in the market when need be.

But for the Philippines to stop its reliance on imports, it has to reimagine the way it produces rice.

Economist Roehlano Briones said the only way local rice farmers can compete with the low prices of imported rice — and prevail over foreign farmers — is to increase yield while maintaining lower production costs.

Currently, the average rice yield in the Philippines is four metric tons per hectare, according to data from the Philippine Rice Research Institute. This is lower than Nueva Ecija’s yield which is at six metric tons per hectare.

“If you can raise the yield without dramatically raising cost and match the six tons per hectare of Nueva Ecija, we will not need to import anymore,” Briones told Rappler.

“That’s like a 50% increase in production of rice at the same cost.”

However, this is easier said than done, said Briones. The economist said supporting farmers goes beyond subsidizing farm inputs.

A restructuring of rice production requires modern machineries, sophisticated farmers who can operate these, and consolidated farmlands to achieve economies of scale.

At some point, modern agriculture will need less farmers too.

“Agriculture, as a share of employment, tends to decline over time,” said Briones. “Interestingly, you can cultivate large tracts of land with very much fewer people.”

The Philippines recorded a total agricultural population of 19.68 million individuals in 2022. Individuals who own or have rights over their farmland number about 4.3 million.

Promises, promises

The one who promised P20/kilo of rice lied, said Vice President Sara Duterte.

“He knows it can’t be achieved,” Duterte said in Filipino. “But he raised people’s hopes that it will be granted.”

The Vice President insinuated questionable rice quality when she said it should be consumed by humans and that Filipinos are not animals.

Malacañang and Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. defended the President’s promise against Duterte’s criticism.

“Huwag sanang pairalin ang crab mentality at huwag maging anay sa lipunan,” Presidential Communications Office Undersecretary Claire Castro told reporters Thursday, April 24. (Let’s not enable crab mentality and let’s not be termites in society.)

As far as the Palace is concerned, what was once mere aspiration is slowly becoming reality.

But reality, similar to what rice farmer Manalo had said, could be different on the ground compared to what’s projected in media pronouncements.

Tariff reduction continues to be contested by groups, with some lobbying for a return to a 35% tariff rate to protect local farmers. Others are advocating for a 15% status quo arguing that higher tariffs make rice unaffordable.

When the price cap failed in 2023, the government opted to simply suggest a maximum retail price. Three months after the food security emergency declaration, the bulk of NFA rice stocks are yet to be released. The NFA is now planning to auction off stocks as well.

They say promises are made to be broken.

Yet the Marcos administration is pressured to keep this one, at the very least to tide over the midterm polls and boost public confidence until the end of his term, as the sheen of another Marcos rule fades.

It’s a tough pill to swallow, but promises to a hungry nation should not be made lightly. – Rappler.com