Trouble signs emerge for Trump in DDHQ/The Hill polling average

President Trump has seen his favorability ratings start to take a hit in the first three months of his presidency amid growing criticism of his handling of the economy and various controversies, according to the initial polling averages from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill. 

The averages show Trump is currently underwater after starting his term in January with a net positive approval rating. DDHQ/The Hill’s average had his approval rating above 50 percent for the first days of his presidency. By late April, his average approval rating had fallen under 45 percent.

The averages suggest Trump could fall deeper underwater as he reaches the 100-day mark next week. 

"The Democrats should be cautiously optimistic,” said Scott Tranter, the director of data science for DDHQ. “They're having a very good batting practice, but we haven't reached the first inning of the game yet. 

“The Republicans, they're not having the greatest start,” he added. “It's not as bad as the first quarter was, in terms of this favorability, approval rating from the first term. So he's doing better than the first term. And there's quite a bit to play out in over the next 18 months.” 

DDHQ is maintaining six polling averages measuring Trump’s approval rating and favorability rating, Vice President Vance’s favorability rating, Elon Musk’s favorability rating, the generic congressional ballot and whether voters feel the country is on the right track or wrong track. 

As a whole, the numbers point to some troubling signs for Trump and the GOP as an early indicator of what to expect for next year’s midterm elections. 

Trump was almost never above water during his first term in office, but he seemed to be initially in his second term. 

That hasn’t lasted. 

The average on Wednesday showed Trump with a disapproval rating of 51.7 percent, the highest of his second term so far.

On personal favorability, Trump also started out above water in DDHQ’s average but has mostly been in the net negative since early February. The average shows 53 percent view Trump unfavorably and 44.5 percent view him favorably, both also setting the mark for his second term so far. 

The most prominent aspect likely driving the decline may be the economy, an issue that has been one of the president’s greatest strengths since his first run for president in 2016. But recent polling has shown more voters viewing Trump’s handling of the economy unfavorably than favorably, or breaking even at best, as he has carried out his wide-ranging tariff policy. 

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Wednesday found Trump’s approval on the economy at 37 percent, the lowest rating of either of his terms. The poll came after significant economic turmoil, particularly in the stock and bond markets, before Trump announced a 90-day pause on what would have been his steepest tariffs yet. 

Several polls have shown that Trump’s trade policy and use of tariffs is unpopular outside of his Republican base, and many expect they could harm the economy. 

The Hill’s Chris Stirewalt noted in his column last week that most presidents experience a “honeymoon phase” that lasts for several months before political reality sets in. But he argued Trump’s position is less fluid than most of his predecessors because he’s been in the Oval Office before. 

Presidents have historically had weaker approval ratings in their second terms than their first. 

“So, it’s a pretty straightforward story. The second-term president who had developed a strong brand on economic performance undertakes a program of economic pain he promises will deliver long-term gain,” Stirewalt wrote. “If the neighborhood pizza place your family had been visiting every week started putting kale in the crust, you’d expect to see some customer dissatisfaction.” 

Tranter said he would have expected Trump’s approval rating to be lower than it is given how chaotically the market has reacted to Trump’s moves on the economy, suggesting continued solid support among Republicans is buoying him. 

“The markets probably had a more violent reaction than his approval rating has on some of these policies,” he said. “So what that tells me is, the electorate, specifically his core base, is giving him some breathing room to see how this all plays out.” 

In Stirewalt’s average of various polls, Trump’s approval stands at 43.6 percent and disapproval at 51.6 percent, a net approval of negative 8 points. That’s down about 1 point from last week and 2 points from last month. 

Meanwhile, other polling on those around Trump may also raise concern. 

The favorability rating for Musk, whom Democrats have sought to home in on as a target in building backlash to the administration, is worse than Trump's, with 53.6 percent viewing him unfavorably and 40.3 percent viewing him favorably. 

Tranter said Musk is “equally as toxic” to Democratic voters as Trump, which gives the party another “punching bag” to use to raise money and enthuse the base. He said if their unfavorable rating gets above the roughly 53 percent it’s at now, then it could be more harmful to the GOP’s prospects for the midterms. 

“Then I think it gets real interesting because that means that he's really pissing off independents, which are the swing voters that the Republicans need to keep some of these House seats,” he said. 

Vance is in a slightly better spot but still underwater by about 9 points. 

A plurality in the average briefly said the country was heading in the right direction in mid-February, but a majority has said it’s heading in the wrong direction since early last month. For the past two decades, a majority of voters have almost without interruption said the country is on the wrong track, through multiple presidential administrations from different parties. 

Republicans enjoyed an advantage in the generic congressional ballot, a broad indicator of how the next congressional elections may go, for the first two months of Trump’s term, but Democrats have taken a slight lead since then. But Tranter urged caution about taking too much away for what this means for the midterms 

“If you're playing a baseball game, this is [Democrats] having a really good batting practice right before the game starts,” he said.