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[Vantage Point] How prepared are we to survive the ‘big one’?

The heart-wrenching devastation wrought by the 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar on March 28 this year reminded me of a catastrophic tremor which up to now, when triggered, remains current in my thoughts: the collapse of the Ruby Tower building in Binondo, Manila, before sunrise on August 2, 1968.

I was five when the Ruby Tower fell. My late father, who was then one of the district engineers of the Department of Public Works, Transportation and Communications (now Department of Public Works and Highways), brought me with him to ground zero, to the consternation of my late mother. [READ: Looking back: The 1968 Casiguran earthquake]

My father, who was often detailed far from home overseeing the construction of several government infrastructure projects all over the country, wanted to make up for lost time with me. He saw the opportunity on that fateful day. He was one of the multitude of volunteers who, with their bare hands, dug into the rubble and piles of metals protruding from concrete slabs to rescue survivors and attend to the dead.

At the site, he entrusted me to one of his friends who was the driver of the ABS-CBN Radyo Patrol van. Manila was in total backout and everyone was glued to the voice of the late John William Xeres-Burgos, Jr. — also known as the famous radio and television host Johnny Midnight — who was broadcasting live on Radyo Patrol, the only one available at that time.

Even from a fairly safe distance where the van was parked, my father’s friend and I were not spared from the wafting stench of death and the palpable gloom blanketing the air. At my young age, I experienced what it was to feel fear, helplessness, and despair.

Located at the corner of Doroteo Jose and Teodora Alonzo Streets in the district of Santa Cruz, the posh, six-storey Ruby Tower was a mixed residential and commercial building that completely collapsed during an earthquake that recorded a moment magnitude of 7.6 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of IX, according to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs). The earthquake’s epicenter was in Casiguran, Quezon (Aurora), and resulted in the death of 268 people and injuries to 260 others. 

The company which built the Ruby Tower was Solid Tower Incorporated, according to the architectural plans created by Tito Plamenco, who refused to sign the documents. Plamenco was told his plans were for marketing purposes, and another architect, Raymond Garcia, ended up signing them over Plamenco’s printed name. 

Aside from the Ruby Tower, the 1968 Casiguran earthquake wrought varying levels of structural damage to several other buildings in Manila, including the Philippine Bar Association Building, Aloha Theater, and Tuason Building.

Thai building collapse blamed on banned steel bars

The official death toll in the earthquake that rocked Myanmar stood at more than 3,000, with more than 4,700 people injured and at least 341 missing. The US Geological Survey’s modelling estimates Myanmar’s death toll could exceed 10,000, with losses surpassing annual economic output. 

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In Thailand, the powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake that rocked Myanmar, also caused the collapse of a 30-storey building in Bangkok. As of April 19, there have been 47 confirmed worker deaths and nine injuries, while 50 remained unaccounted for. The building contractor has been under investigation by Thai authorities for its involvement in the collapse of the State Audit Office (SAO) building in Bangkok’s Chatuchak district. The allegation is that the company used rebars which have been banned in China in 2017, but which nonetheless found their way to ASEAN countries, including the Philippines. 

Thai authorities have arrested Zhang Chuanling, an executive of China Railway No.10 Engineering Group, a subsidiary of China Railway Engineering Corporation (CREC), as part of a widening investigation into the collapse of the Bangkok skyscraper. 

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Thai watchdog had flagged concerns on building that collapsed in earthquake

Test results from the Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand indicated that SKY’s 32mm and 20mm deformed steel bars, used in the collapsed SAO building, did not meet safety standards and that new steel samples collected from SKY’s factory. Thailand’s Industry Ministry is now pushing ahead with plans to scrap certification for steel produced using outdated Induction Furnace (IF) technology, citing persistent difficulties in quality control and significant environmental concerns.

The move follows investigations linking IF steel to substandard products and criticism from the SAO. On April 4, the ministry’s task force searched SKY’s factory in Ban Khai district, Rayong province, and confiscated 43,000 tons of hazardous red dust worth 1.7 billion baht. The factory had been ordered to shut down in December 2024 for producing substandard steel.

Structural safety concerns in the Philippines

In the aftermath of the Thai-Myanmar earthquake, local scientists are predicting that the ‘big one’ that would strike the Philippines could cause colossal events never seen before.  Right after the Thai-Myanmar earthquake, a tremor with a magnitude of 5 already struck Calatagan, Batangas at 5:25 pm on April 1. The epicenter was located 22 kilometers southwest of Calatagan with a depth of focus of 133 km, according to the Phivolcs. [READ: How prepared is Metro Manila for a strong quake?]

A World Risk Report in September 2024, placed the Philippines number one with the highest risk (46.91 points). Indonesia is in second place (41.13), with India (40.96), Colombia (37.81), Mexico in 3rd, 4th and 5th, respectively. It is no surprise that we are on top of the list, with the country being a part of the so-called “Ring of Fire.”

To better prepare the country’s skyscrapers, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and the Philippine Iron and Steel Institute (PISI) have been investigating and addressing the issue of substandard steel bars particularly focusing on reinforced bars (rebars) used in construction. [READ: PH stops import of 20,000 MT Chinese steel bars]

Their efforts, however, remain unproductive. Without aggressive police action, the proliferation of substandard steel bars would remain to be a public safety concern.

To be fair, the Philippine government has been conducting surprise factory audits, test purchases, and surveillance audits to identify and remove substandard products from the market, but its efforts are simply not enough.

Substandard steel bars remain in circulation in various provinces in northern Luzon. PISI found such products while conducting test buys in the provinces of Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, Isabela ,and Nueva Vizcaya. 

As early as 2017, PISI had discovered substandard steel bars in the damaged structures in Leyte and Samar in the aftermath of the 6.5 magnitude earthquake that hit the area. 

In a letter addressed to the DTI dated July 28, 2017, PISI said its team visited Kananga, Palo, Ormoc City, and Tacloban City in Leyte, and the town of Basey in Samar and found that the rebars used had “marginal tensile strength” during the random test buy operation. It also found that rebars with a nine millimeter diameter, which was outside the specifications of the government-prescribed mandatory standards, were being sold in the market.

The uncertified products that were found in the damaged structures and in the market were most likely imported and did not follow the Import Commodity Clearance procedures of the of the DTI. Worse, the rebars passed through the Bureau of Customs, most likely the Cebu Port, without the benefit of being inspected and tested. 

The investigations have revealed that rebars, particularly those manufactured using induction furnaces, may not meet minimum standards for weight and may be brittle. Some rebars also fail to meet the Philippine National Standard (PNS) for steel bars for concrete reinforcement. 

The use of inferior rebars in building construction has raised concerns about the safety and durability of buildings, especially in areas prone to earthquakes. 

The recent devastation which occurred in Myanmar and Thailand should serve as a dire warning. Since the 1960s, the Philippines has experienced several catastrophic earthquakes, including the 1968 Casiguran earthquake, the 1976 Moro Gulf earthquake, and the 1990 Luzon earthquake. These events have resulted in a significant casualty count and widespread damage, highlighting the vulnerability of the Philippines to earthquakes due to its location within the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” a region known for high seismic activities.

Traumatic experiences due to natural disasters can lead to lasting physical, emotional, and mental effects. Lives may be cut short. Victims may suffer from temporary or permanent injury. When livelihoods are shattered, commerce grounds to a halt. 

According to a 2023 study, 6,158 people lost their lives from earthquakes occurring between 1599 and 2020. “The Big One” is believed to strike with a 7.2 magnitude on the West Valley Fault (WVF) which is predicted to kill at least 34,000 people. In the last 1,400 years, a total of four major earthquakes have occurred on the WVF.

While an earthquake can be considered an “act of God” and beyond human control and prevention, ensuring that buildings have seismic resilience is a logical step in preparing for the “big one.” Without a multifaceted approach to seismic resilience that focuses on structural design, material selection, and construction practices, all guided by building codes and regulations that are untainted by greed and corruption, our country will remain vulnerable to earthquake damage. – Rappler.com

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