‘The Last of Us’ Season 2 Emmys update: How will Joel’s shocking death impact the race?

The following post contains spoilers about The Last of Us Season 2

Every path has a price, but only one leads to the Emmy Awards.

HBO’s hit series The Last of Us pulled off its biggest swing yet this week by killing off Joel Miller, the show’s lead character played by Emmy Award nominee Pedro Pascal. The twist has been long anticipated by fans of the video game franchise on which the show is based and was handled with thought and care by the creative team. 

“When we get to the moment where Abby does what she does, it was as hard for us to write and to shoot as it was, I think probably, for a lot of people to watch it,” co-creator Craig Mazin said after the episode aired on Sunday. “But this story is about how we all deal with those moments which do confront us in life. We all think, ‘I could deal with this much stuff,’ and then life says [here’s more]. Then we find out what we can put up with.”

Thus far, the response to the twist has been one of acclaim: several reviews singled out Episode 2, “Through the Valley,” as one of the best of the entire season (critics were able to screen all the episodes before writing their reviews), and viewers have rated the episode as the best ever for the series on IMDb. The question as The Last of Us moves forward from here becomes: How will Joel’s shocking death impact the Emmys race?

Best Drama Series

The Last of Us always seemed secure as a Best Drama nominee — the first season landed 24 overall nominations, including Best Drama Series — and nothing in the season thus far should disabuse that notion. In the Gold Derby odds, The Last of Us remains in second place, just behind frontrunner Severance and ahead of fellow HBO/Max properties The White Lotus and The Pitt. The network and its streaming platform may split the vote among its three contenders, allowing Severance to cruise to that expected victory. However, The Last of Us has captured the zeitgeist in a significant way with its twist. It should have a slight advantage over its brand cohorts that could help drive it past Severance, especially if the emotional response to Joel’s death carries through to the rest of the season.

Best Drama Actor

Here’s where things get interesting: Joel’s death means Pascal’s presence on the show is greatly diminished going forward. We know for sure that Joel will appear in a flashback episode later this season — early reviews praised the emotional episode as comparable to “Long, Long Time,” aka the Bill and Frank episode from Season 1 that won raves — but otherwise Pascal will not be a significant part of the season moving forward. That means the actor has a choice: He can campaign as a lead actor, where he was nominated for Season 1, or shift to the supporting category, where he’d likely compete against costar Young Mazino (who appears as Jesse on the show) and potentially Jeffrey Wright and Gabriel Luna (both of whom could compete as guest-acting nominees). In the aftermath of Sunday’s episode, Variety reported Pascal was leaning toward sticking in the Best Drama Actor category — and that makes the most sense: After Logan Roy died during the early stages of the final season of Succession, star Brian Cox remained in the lead category and received a nomination for his work. The Gold Derby odds predict Pascal will do the same — his status as a predicted nominee has barely moved since Joel’s death — and he remains win-competitve despite the limited screentime, especially if the flashback episode is as heartrending as advertised.

Best Drama Actress

With Pascal taking a backseat in future Season 2 episodes, The Last of Us becomes Bella Ramsey’s show. The actor, who is nonbinary but will be submitted in the Best Drama Actress field, was a nominee for Season 1 and has long been predicted to score another bid for Season 2. Future episodes of the show will focus on Ramsey’s Ellie traveling to Seattle with Dina (Isabela Merced; more on her below), providing Ramsey with the chance to show a more vulnerable side than they have previously. Right now, Ramsey is second in the odds behind Kathy Bates, who could score her first Emmy in more than a decade for Matlock. However, the star of a network show hasn’t won in this category since Viola Davis for How to Get Away with Murder in 2015. While Ramsey would be the youngest Best Drama Actress winner ever (they’re younger than current record-holder Zendaya), it’s possible the network bias within the Television Academy supersedes the age bias. Stay tuned, but don’t think for a second Ramsey doesn’t have the material with which to win.

Best Drama Supporting Actress

For months, Kaitlyn Dever has held firm among the Best Drama Supporting Actress predictions among multiple The White Lotus actresses and The Diplomat star and seven-time Emmy winner Alison Janney. However, as with Pascal, Dever might not end up in her expected category. As Variety reported, Dever will also be eligible as a guest actress nominee if she chooses to submit there (meaning Dever’s Abby only appears in one other episode this season). It’s unclear if Dever will decide to run in that category. Still, if she does, she becomes an immediate favorite: Abby is a polarizing figure for The Last of Us fans, and she murdered Joel, which isn’t going to win her any supporters. However, showrunners Craig Mazin and Neil Druckmann smartly focused on Abby in the early episodes and provided audiences with an understanding of her motivations to kill Joel. Besides, suppose Dever departs the category for guest consideration. In that case, it’s not like The Last of Us is lacking another viable contender: Merced was singled out in several reviews for her performance as Dina, and the actress becomes a co-lead with Ramsey during the next two episodes as Ellie and Dina head to Seattle to find Abby and seek revenge for Joel. It’s a tiny sample size, but Ramsey’s key scene partners have historically done well with the voters: Pascal and Season 1 guest star Storm Reid were both nominated, with Reid winning Best Drama Guest Actress. Merced probably won’t follow Reid to the winner’s circle with all those The White Lotus stars vying for top honors, but her nomination should be taken more seriously as the season moves forward. Right now, she’s ninth in the odds and rising.

Writing, Directing, and Crafts

Season 1 of The Last of Us won eight Emmys — including both guest acting categories, sound, visual effects, and editing. Just based on “Through the Valley” alone, it could repeat in several of those spots — including visual effects, makeup, editing from previous The Last of Us winner Timothy A. Good, and cinematography. The episode should also be in serious contention for writing for Mazin and directing for Emmy winner Mark Mylod. The director was widely praised for his efforts at balancing the story of Joel’s death with a massive attack of infected on the town where Joel and Ellie settled. That Mylod won an Emmy for directing Logan’s death episode for Succession is a nice bit of symmetry at worst, and shows the voters are familiar with his game at best.