Inside the Tariff Turbulence From the Epicenter of American Agriculture

In the fields of the Midwest, the real impact of geopolitical maneuvering plays out in the price of corn, the strain on lending, and the razor-thin margins of America’s farmers. But before 2025’s tariffs ever became the flashpoint, American farmers were already steeling themselves for a hard year.

“Crop prices have been challenged over the last year, not just in the last few months,” Jake Joraanstad, CEO at Bushel, a digital platform serving over 100,000 grain producers across North America, told PYMNTS Karen Webster. “Very late last year and into the beginning of this year, there was no price in which you could sell corn and be profitable.”

In that environment, forward contracting, the act of locking in prices for future delivery, became rare. It simply wasn’t worth the risk. And although some short-term market volatility has nudged prices upward, that’s little more than noise in an otherwise bearish market.

“We have not had great corn prices, have not had great soybean prices … that’s the driver of farm profitability in some respects here in the U.S.,” Joraanstad said.

Still, if agribusinesses admittedly can’t control global policy, they can at least control how they operate. If there’s one message Joraanstad wants the world to hear, it’s this: American farmers are resilient — but they need tools, transparency and time.

Bushel itself is banking on that agency, and not just from farmers but from the co-ops, processors and retailers that also make up the broader agri-commerce ecosystem.

“We’ve solved the timing problem,” Joraanstad said. “Over half of the grain offers made through our platform are submitted outside of regular business hours. A farmer hears the market news at 6 a.m., and the office isn’t open. But Bushel is.”

Braced for a Downturn

While headlines often focus on macro trends such as tariffs, trade wars and political sparring, agribusinesses players are more focused on the granular realities. Often, getting granular can be taken quite literally, for farmers and their buyers, as it relates to key grains and kernels.

“Our big markets for export are in Asia. Not just China, but other parts … where we supply feed for animals,” Joraanstad said. “If tariffs remain on this trajectory … that’s a challenge.”

In China specifically, the U.S. agriculture system has nurtured a long-standing mutual dependence.

“China cannot buy enough soybeans from anywhere else in the world without also including the United States — or they will starve. They can delay, but over time there will be a forcing function. They’ll have to buy from us,” Joraanstad added, while at the same time cautioning against overconfidence, noting China’s ongoing investment in Brazil as a strategic alternative.

Beyond commodity prices, the real kicker for farmers has been skyrocketing input costs.

“Inflation has created higher input costs across the board for the farmer. That’s not been corrected with any of this pullback,” Joraanstad said. “The truth is, the family farm has been the most pressured over the last 20 years. Whether tariffs or not are really the reason for why the family farm is challenged … it’s just a difficult business if you’re small.”

Read also: World’s Newest Innovation Transforms Age-Old Industry of Agriculture

Rewiring Agribusiness

In a sector that still often runs on phone calls, paper checks and legacy systems, adapting in real time to geopolitical chess moves can be challenging. While the White House navigates geopolitics, Bushel is building practical solutions. In March, the company launched a new banking integration through its Bushel Wallet, offering U.S. farmers FDIC-insured accounts with interest rates over 3.4%.

“If a farmer earns 3.4% on parked cash, that’s in the ballpark of what a decent year on the farm looks like. It’s meaningful,” Joraanstad said.

Access to credit and capital is another growing concern. Most farmers rely on operating lines during the first half of the year to cover expenses before harvest income rolls in.

“They live on credit,” Joraanstad said. “Now we’re talking about 7-10% interest rates — up from 3%. That becomes part of your input costs, and it’s brutal.”

Looking forward, Joraanstad is hopeful that policy can align with innovation. He’s particularly bullish on ethanol.

“It would be a smart move for the administration to push E15 — going from 10% to 15% ethanol in our fuel. That would create massive corn demand and help stabilize the market.” 

Joraanstad is optimistic that officials are listening and understanding the implications of policies like the controversial “Section 301” shipping tariffs that could cripple U.S. ag exports.

“Million dollars per port point would be terrible,” he warned. “In the ag world, they’ll hit four ports up the coast. That’s $4 million. You have no chance to be able to make that work.”

Despite all the uncertainty, one thing is clear: Agribusiness is no longer just about dirt and diesel. It’s about data. And with the bevy of solutions at hand, American farmers are entering a new era of digitized decision-making.

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