NBA Playoffs overreactions for every series after 1 game of 2025 first round

Let’s overreact to every first-round series of the 2025 NBA Playoffs after one game.

The 2025 NBA Playoffs are underway, and some of the biggest storylines of the postseason are already coming into focus after one game in every first round series. The Oklahoma City Thunder showed why they are the favorites in the Western Conference by pulling off one of the biggest blowouts in playoff history in Game 1 against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers showed why they’re widely expected to eventually face-off in the conference finals by winning in blow outs to start their playoff runs.

The first round in the West is going to be thrilling. The Timberwolves thumped the Lakers, the Nuggets won an overtime thriller against the Clippers, and the Warriors outclassed the Rockets. Don’t be surprised if all three of those matchups produce long and grueling series while the Thunder coast.

With one game of every series in the book, let’s overreact to each matchup in the first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs.

The New York Knicks need their depth to deliver

Tom Thibodeau isn’t changing with age. The New York Knicks coach once again rode his starters harder during the regular season than any coach in the NBA, with his starting five averaging 179 minutes per game, more than 10 minutes higher than the next highest playoff team. Mikal Bridges played more total minutes than anyone since 2016 James Harden, while Josh Hart (No. 2) and OG Anunoby (No. 9) also finished top-10 among this year’s total minutes leaders.

Thibs has to be facing desperation to turn to his bench, but that’s where he found himself with the Knicks down nine to the Detroit Pistons to start the fourth quarter in their Game 1 of their first round series. Backup guard Cam Payne had only played 4:38 before the fourth quarter, but when he got his chance in the final period, he delivered with 11 points on 4-of-5 shooting. Payne’s hot hand helped the Knicks go on a 21-0 run that changed the tenor of the game and secured the win. The Knicks needed an extra boost from the bench on a night when Mikal Bridges just didn’t have it, and Jalen Brunson again tweaked his ankle before returning.

Whether it’s Payne or Deuce McBride or Mitchell Robinson, Thibs needs to get something out of his reserves to outlast a younger and more athletic Pistons team. The Knicks broke down physically in last year’s playoffs, and a little bench help would go a long way to helping them avoid a similar fate this year.

The Lakers’ lack of rim protection is a fatal flaw

The Lakers’ defense figured to drop off after the Earth-shattering Anthony Davis for Luka Doncic swap, but in reality it was at about the same level after Doncic’s Feb. 11 debut (17th in defensive rating) as it was before (16th in defensive rating). Head coach JJ Redick did a phenomenal job figuring out creative ways to minimize LA’s lack of a dependable starting center and rim protection despite also having some shaky perimeter defenders in the lineup.

The Lakers’ apparent defensive strategy in Game 1 against the Minnesota Timberwolves was to pack the paint to deter drives to the rim from Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle. That came back to burn them: Edwards (nine assists) and Randle (five assists) consistently moved the ball to the open shooter, and the Lakers weren’t fast enough on their closeouts. Minnesota shot a scalding 21-of-42 from deep in Game 1 on their way to an easy win. Even if they don’t shoot that well every game, the Lakers defense needing to shade to the paint because they lack reliable shot blocking will be huge obstacle to overcome. The Wolves were wide open on so many of their outside looks.

Minnesota scored 136.1 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning The Glass. Meanwhile, the Lakers scored just 106 points per 100. Rudy Gobert was highly impactful despite finishing with only two points. This Lakers roster has had apparent flaws since the trade, and it really showed in Game 1.

Clippers/Nuggets will be an instant classic series

The Los Angeles Clippers were rolling into the playoffs, integrating Kawhi Leonard back into the lineup for big minutes while ripping off 18 wins in their last 21 games to end the regular season. The Nuggets’ three-game winning streak since firing head coach Mike Malone at the end of the regular season looks modest in comparison, but having the best player in the world on the roster tends to give a team confidence. This always felt like the most competitive series of the first round this year, and Game 1 delivered.

The Nuggets beat the Clippers, 112-110, in an overtime classic that was a rollercoaster of emotions down the stretch. The Clippers led for most of the game before a fourth quarter push by Denver where Russell Westbrook was leaving his mark everywhere in both good ways and bad ways. Westbrook’s clutch three at the end of regulation and forced turnover on the Clippers’ most important possession of overtime will be remembered, but so much happened in between.

The game had 11 lead changes, seven ties, with the Nuggets down by as many as 15 points in the first half. Denver kept playing its game, and it sure helps when Nikola Jokic is creating good scoring looks almost every time he touches the ball. Denver had nine offensive rebounds in the final nine minutes of the game. This is going to be a tough, physical series between two battle-tested teams, and the winner figures to come out exhausted. The basketball is going to be very good along the way.

The Pacers’ conference finals run was no fluke

The Pacers felt like a little bit of a gimmick at the start of last year with the NBA’s fastest offense consistently running into easy baskets while the defense ranked near the bottom of the league. The Pascal Siakam trade changed all that. Siakam added size, defense, and a more methodical form of shot creation to Indiana, and it was enough to reach the 2024 Eastern Conference finals as the 76ers and Knicks broke down physically. The Pacers may not be quite as talented as the best teams in the league again this year, but this is suddenly a very solid group on both ends with a sky-high offensive ceiling and raised defensive floor.

The Pacers left no doubt in Game 1 against the Damian Lillard-less Milwaukee Bucks, taking a 24-point halftime lead and coasting to a 117-98 victory. Giannis Antetokounmpo got his (36 points, 12 rebounds on 14-of-23 shooting), but that was just fine with the Pacers on a night when all of his teammates struggled. The Pacers just looked so much deeper and more competent, presenting very real problems the Bucks can’t work through without Lillard.

It’s wild to think the Pacers won in a rout on a night when star guard Tyrese Hailburton finished with 10 points on 3-of-13 shooting from the floor while goin 0-of-7 from three-point range. Haliburton still did well to get his teammates going (12 assists), in the process showing just how many useful players Indiana has in the rotation. Siakam (25 points), Myles Turner (19 points), and Andrew Nembhard (17 points) did the heavy lifting, while Bennedict Mathurin and TJ McConnell each contributed scoring off the bench. Lillard better look great immediately upon coming back, otherwise Indiana’s talent advantage is evident.

The Thunder are a wagon

Congrats to the Memphis Grizzlies for making it through the NBA play-in tournament! Your grand prize is a showdown with a No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder team that just won 68 games while posting the second-best net-rating in NBA history.

The Thunder blasted Memphis 130-80 for the largest margin of victory ever in a Game 1 of an NBA Playoffs series. It’s the fifth-biggest margin of victory in the history of the NBA Playoffs. The Thunder have done it with defense all year, and this game was no exception. Memphis was forced into 22 turnovers, with the Thunder out-scoring the Grizzlies 27-5 in fastbreak points. MVP front-runner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t do much (15 points on 4-of-13 shooting), but it didn’t matter because OKC’s well-oiled machine was rolling in full force.

What’s changed since Ja Morant said he was “fine in the West” just three short years ago? Well, the Thunder have emerged as a rising powerhouse with real dynasty potential. This was a good way to start this core’s most important playoff run yet.

The Celtics can have a new hero every night

Jayson Tatum shot 8-of-22 from the floor, Kristaps Porzingis shot 1-of-8, and the Boston Celtics still beat the Orlando Magic by 17 points in Game 1 of their first round series. The Celtics have so much offensive firepower that they can still rout a decent team when their best player and another key starter have an off-game. Boston coasted to the championship last year with Porzingis sidelined for most of the run. The Celtics are one of the best teams in the NBA even they don’t play their best game.

Derrick White was the hero for Boston in Game 1, popping off for 30 points on 7-of-12 three-point shooting. White is an All-Star caliber player, and would be averaging 20+ points per game almost anywhere else. On the Celtics, he’s often the fourth option on any given night. Boston can deliver a knockout punch at any given time because it plays with an eternal green light from three-point range. On Sunday, getting Jrue Holiday and Payton Pritchard both hot from deep was enough to crush Orlando. It’s so impressive that the Celtics run out so many potential takeover scorers while still not having an obvious weak link to attack defensively. The Celtics are absolutely capable of winning back-to-back championships, and this was a good example of their force.

The Cavs’ offense is ready for prime-time

The Miami Heat were no great shakes this year, but they did develop a highly competent defense that ranked No. 9 in the NBA this season. All Cleveland did in Game 1 of their first round series is score 139.1 points per 100 possessions on Miami, a number that easily out-paced Cleveland’s No. 1 offense during the regular season (121 points per 100). The Cavs had the best offense in the NBA all year, and it is already showing it’s built for playoff success.

The Cavs just have so much shooting. Cleveland attempted a three-pointer on 48.8 percent of its field goal attempts on Sunday, ripping those shots at a fantastic 41.9 percent clip. Ty Jerome had a breakout year for the Cavs this year as a super-efficient scorer (64.3 percent true shooting), and he took over Game 1 with 28 points on 10-of-15 shooting and a huge flurry in the fourth. When Donovan Mitchell (30 points on 19 field goal attempts) and Darius Garland (27 points on 17 field goal attempts) also have it going, good luck stopping Cleveland’s offense. The Cavs’ championship dreams rest on being able to continue to out-score any opponent, and their playoff debut was a positive indicator that they can.

The Warriors’ defense is more trustworthy than the Rockets’ offense

The young Rockets surged to the No. 2 seed in the West this year with a top-five defense and the league’s best offensive rebounding team. Houston has elite athletes everywhere and tons of lineup versatility, but the rebuilt and reloaded Rockets are still no match for their eternal playoff nemesis, Stephen Curry. Curry reminded Houston it has a lot of nice pieces, but it doesn’t have anyone like him during a convincing Game 1 victory. Curry popped off for 31 points, while new co-star Jimmy Butler added 25 points in his Warriors playoff debut. Curry and Butler carried the Warriors offense for long stretches, and the Rockets still don’t have a single player who can do that in their post-James Harden build.

The Warriors were a much better defensive team (No. 7 in efficiency) than offensive team (No. 16 in efficiency) this year. The Rockets got most of their offense by forcing turnovers and crushing team on the glass, but their ability to manufacture good looks in the halfcourt was a huge question mark coming into this series. Game 1 showed that Golden State’s defense is much more ready for prime-time than Houston’s offense, while the stars can carry the Warriors across the finish line on the other end. So much has changed for this latest version of the Warriors-Rockets rivalry, but Houston still doesn’t have anyone like Steph.