Where will the next Pope come from? Analysts say it could be Africa’s time

JOHANNESBURG: The next Pope could, and some analysts say should, come from Africa. Christianity is booming here. More people are becoming Catholics on the continent than anywhere else in the world, and millions of Africans proudly stay true to their faith despite persecution and death.

"As in previous years, increases (in the number of Catholics) were registered above all in Africa," the Vatican said in October 2024, stating that 7,271,000 Africans joined the faith last year.

In 2023, the National Catholic Register reported "Home to fewer than 1 million Catholics in 1910, the Catholic population of Africa is now 265 million."

Fox News Digital understands there are three leading African papabile – "pope-able" candidates - Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, 76, from Ghana, and Guinea’s Cardinal Robert Sarah, who is viewed as an outsider due his being 80-years-old.

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"Is it time? Certainly, it is an appropriate time for the leader of the Catholic Church to come from Africa for reasons that would capture the world’s imagination," Greg Tobin, author of the novels "Conclave" and "Council," and the biography of "Pope John XXIII, the Good Pope," told Fox News Digital. 

He added, "The Church has been growing at an amazingly rapid rate over the past few decades in the face of government opposition in many African nations, overt persecution of Christians and Catholics in many of the same nations, and violent opposition. Further, the leaders who have been appointed bishops and raised up as cardinals are generally highly educated, often in the West."

Theologian and executive coach Jonathan Morris was also positive about the idea of a new Pope coming from Africa, telling Fox News Digital, "An African candidate for pope is not only interesting from the perspective of representation of the fastest-growing region of the Church, but also because an African candidate could bring together divergent ideological groups of cardinals."

Morris, a Fox News contributor, added, "The African Church is, as a whole, more conservative than the European and American Church. But wouldn’t these Europeans and Americans love to be part of making history!" 

While this largely conservative approach from Africa’s papal candidates is a positive factor among traditional Catholics, many still don’t want a hardline pope, Gregory Tobin said. Tobin is right on topic, as he is currently writing a new book, "The Mysteries of the Conclave." The Conclave is the meeting in the Vatican where the new pope is chosen. Tobin said "the (African) Church and its leaders can come across as either ambivalent or very hard conservatives—a mixed bag that is a "turnoff" for cardinal-electors who seek more highly defined, clear theology and pastoral "style" from the one whom they will elect."

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Some analysts recommend it’s the right moment, with a pope from Africa, to reward Christians for their strength despite often horrific persecution. It’s easy to openly be a Christian in Texas. But recently in the DRC, where 95% of the population are Christian, no-one stopped Islamist rebels from forcing 70 Christians into a church where they were butchered, beheaded with machetes.

In 2023, Fox News Digital was told that more than 52,000 Christians "have been butchered or hacked to death for being Christians" since 2009 in Nigeria, according to Intersociety, a civil society group based in Onitsha.

Yet Nigeria in 2023 was shown to have the largest number of practicing Catholics in the world – worshipers who attend mass – by a long way, followed by another African country, Kenya. This is according to Georgetown University’s Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA), which reported "weekly or more frequent Mass attendance is highest among adult self-identified Catholics in Nigeria at 94% followed by Kenya at 73%."

Greg Tobin offered his take on the preferred candidates. First, "Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, DRC, Archbishop of Kinshasa, is a leading African candidate, though he is not considered strong or consistent in his theological teachings, (and) he is a vocal opponent of the dictatorial leadership of his country."

And "Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appia Turkson, from Ghana, [from] 2020 onward served Pope Francis as head of a multi-group task force to monitor widespread effects of (the) coronavirus pandemic on churches and Catholic institutions. Turkson is a viable choice, widely respected, liked by Pope Francis, and theologically and "politically" palatable to Western prelates, but his visibility has dimmed in recent years. His election would be a major surprise along the same line that Bergolio’s (Pope Francis) was in 2013."

Tobin pointed out that Guinea’s Cardinal Robert Sarah, being 80, is "ineligible to vote in the conclave due to age. A distinct long-shot, due to age and sense his time has passed." 

One final note: Should the next Pope come from Africa, he won’t be the first. Victor 1, from North Africa, served as the Pontiff between 189-199, and was closely followed by Miltiades and Gelasius 1.