Conservative Poilievre seemed poised to be Canada’s next leader. Then Trump declared economic war
TORONTO (AP) — Until a few months ago, Pierre Poilievre was seen as a shoo-in to become Canada’s next prime minister and shepherd his Conservative Party back into power for the first time in a decade. Then President Donald Trump declared economic war on the U.S.’s neighbor to the north and even threatened to make Canada the 51st state.
Poilievre, a career politician and firebrand populist, has campaigned with Trump-like braggadocio, even taking a page from the “America First” president by adopting the slogan “Canada First.” But his similarities to Trump might cost him the chance to become prime minister when Canadians head to the polls on April 28.
Trump’s frequent attacks on Canada’s economy and sovereignty have infuriated Canadians and led to a surge in nationalism that has bolstered Liberal Party poll numbers.
Like Trump, Poilievre brags about the size of the crowd at his campaign rallies and attacks the mainstream media, recently calling a female journalist a protester. In response to the changes in public opinion, some Poilievre supporters wore hoodies to a recent rally with the slogan, “Do you believe the polls?”
The change in the polls has been dramatic. In a mid-January poll by Nanos, the Liberals trailed the Conservatives by 47% to 20%. In the latest Nanos poll, which was conducted during a three-day period that ended April 19, the Liberals led by six percentage points. The January poll had a margin of error 3.1 points while the latest poll had a 2.7-point margin.
“The Trumpy hectoring of people, the slogans, the big rallies — like it all just seems like so Trump. And people are not loving Trump right now in Canada,” said Kory Teneycke, a key figure in conservative Canadian politics who directs campaigns.
“(Poilievre’s) style and his approach to politics certainly channels a lot of Trump. It’s like a cheap karaoke version of Trump.”
Poilievre is imploring Canadians not to give the Liberals a fourth term after “a lost Liberal decade.” He hoped to make the election a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity declined toward the end of his decade in power as food and housing prices rose and immigration surged.
But Trump attacked, Trudeau resigned and Mark Carney, a two-time central banker, became Liberal party leader and prime minister. After decades of bilateral stability, the vote is now expected to focus on who is best equipped to deal with Trump.
Who is Poilievre?
Poilievre is best known for his populist slogans and attacks on Trudeau, whom he blamed for high inflation. He was a Cabinet minister in former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government and has led the opposition Conservatives since 2022.
Teneycke said Poilievre’s skill as a “political attack dog” is what led him to great heights.
“When that ire was focused on a very unpopular prime minister in Justin Trudeau, that was working for him,” Teneycke said. “Exit Trudeau, enter Trump and it’s a totally changed game. He hasn’t brought that level of ferocity to Trump.”
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, said Poilievre is different from Trump in quite a few ways but, stylistically, their rhetoric is often similar.
“Sounding like someone many of your fellow citizens perceive as their country’s public enemy No. 1 can’t be a good thing in politics,” Béland said.
A married 45-year-old father of two, Poilievre represents a district outside the capital, Ottawa, but he grew up in Alberta, Canada’s most conservative province. He has been a member of Parliament since age 25.
Poilievre volunteered on conservative campaigns during his teenage years, joined the campus conservative club at the University of Calgary and was a finalist for an essay-writing contest about what he would do if he were prime minister.
What would a Poilievre victory mean for Canada-US relations?
Trump has said he isn’t concerned that his trade war with Canada was boosting the Liberal Party ahead of the parliamentary elections. And although he said Poilievre’s views are more aligned than Carney’s with his own, he’s not a fan of Poilievre.
“The conservative that’s running is stupidly no friend of mine,” Trump has said, criticizing Poilievre for “saying negative things.”
Poilievre, like Carney, said that if he’s elected, he would accelerate renegotiations of the free trade deal with the U.S. He also wants Trump to suspend U.S. tariffs during the talks. He said Trump should “knock off” his attacks on Canada, but that, “nobody can control this president.”
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a conservative ally of Poilievre, said Poilievre would be “very much in sync” with the “new direction in America.”
Poilievre has vowed to defund the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, the public broadcaster and a cultural institution in Canada. He wants to cut taxes and hopes to approve pipelines that would diversify oil exports. He has also promised to be tough on crime and has denounced “woke-ism.”
“Who’s ready for change in Canada? Who’s ready to ax some taxes? Who’s ready to build some homes? Who’s ready for some pipelines to make us independent from the Americans? And who’s ready to put Canada first for a change?” Poilievre said at a recent rally.