President AOC? Plus, Americans are waking up to climate change threat
Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about. You’ll also find data-based updates on past Daily Kos reporting, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.
2028 favorites: Harris slips, Booker booms, but what about AOC?
It’s April 2025, five months after an enormously depressing presidential election, so you know what that means: It’s time to talk about the 2028 presidential race.
Since last year’s election, Echelon Insights has conducted four polls asking voters who they’d support if their party’s 2028 presidential primaries were held today. And in its first poll, fielded mere days after the 2024 election, 41% of Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents supported Kamala Harris to be their next presidential nominee.
But now, three months into President Donald Trump’s fresh hell, only 28% would back Harris if the 2028 Democratic primary were held today, according to new data from the same pollster.
While Harris still leads the survey’s field of 20 potential candidates, her support has fallen in each survey the pollster has run.
Who else are Democrats eyeing, then?
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker has leapt into second place. In March, only 2% of Democratic voters wanted him to be the next nominee, but now, coming off his fiery, marathon anti-Trump speech on the Senate floor, his support has jumped to 11%.
After him are New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (7%), former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (7%), and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (5%). No other name got more than 5% support. (Buttigieg, Booker, and Ocasio-Cortez also lead another poll that excludes Harris from the list of options.)
However, Ocasio-Cortez’s prospects could be underrated. For one, she’s currently on a cross-country tour with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and drawing tens of thousands of people, even in some dark red areas of the country. And with a certain endorsement from Sanders, she’d likely have the progressive lane to herself, all while other candidates probably try to out-moderate each other.
More importantly, though, Yale University’s new poll shows her a close second behind Harris when it comes to 2028. Among Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents, Harris pulls 27.5% support and Ocasio-Cortez scores 21.3%. No other named option received more than 15% support.
The poll also finds that she’s the most liked among potential 2028 Democratic candidates, with a net favorability of +62. Harris is in second place, at +59.
Harris’ 2028-related support is likely to keep falling as well. After all, she did lose last year’s election, and Democrats will likely get even more wary about backing her for a second go at the White House. Also, Harris is currently weighing a run for governor of California and has set a self-imposed summer deadline to decide. She’d be an obvious favorite in that race, with 31% of California’s overall likely-voter electorate already backing her for the job, according to new polling from Emerson College.
If Ocasio-Cortez enters the 2028 Democratic primary, she would need to prove she can win general-election voters, who might be less keen on a candidate who sells “Abolish ICE” dad hats. Democrats will surely be hesitant to take an electability risk after being burned last year.
That said, an idealistic, fresh-faced, anti-establishment Democrat of color beloved by young voters, known for delivering powerful speeches, and with one parent who was born outside the U.S. does ring a few bells.
Global warming, personal threat
Good news for people who love bad news: More Americans than ever before are worried about how much climate change will harm them personally.
Forty-eight percent of Americans say that global warming will pose “a serious threat” to them and their way of life in their lifetime, according to new data from Gallup. That’s up from a previous high of 46% in 2023 and well above the 39% average of Gallup’s polling since 1997.
That said, 51% of Americans say it won’t pose a personal threat to them.
The odd thing is, more Americans than ever before also say the effects of climate change are currently playing out. According to Gallup, 63% say global warming’s effects have already begun, with another 23% saying they will begin in the future. Just a scant 12% say those effects will never happen.
The burning-hot silver lining in these numbers is that Americans are taking climate change more seriously than ever before. The downside, though, is that the issue still ranks at the bottom of their biggest environmental worries, with problems like drinking-water safety and river pollution ranking much higher.
Still, 63% of Americans worrying a great deal or a fair amount about global warming ain’t terrible. But for the worry to become big enough that U.S. politicians are forced to meet the moment, it’ll no doubt take things getting even worse.
The “good” news here is that things very much are.
Republicans soften on China—wait, what?
As infamous sinophobe Trump slaps heavy tariffs on China, fewer Americans see the world’s most populous country in a negative light, but more curiously, it’s Trump’s base that is softening.
According to new data from Pew Research Center, 33% of U.S. adults overall have a “very” unfavorable opinion of China, down from 43% last year, making for a drop of 10 percentage points. Another 44% have a “somewhat” unfavorable view of China. That marks the first time in five years that the percentage of Americans with an unfavorable view has declined from the year prior.
Largely responsible for that drop are Republicans, whose very unfavorable view of China has fallen 16 points since last year. And the percentage of those with an unfavorable view (“very” or “somewhat”) has fallen 8 points.
The reason for this may be that Republicans see China as less of a threat, with fewer considering the nation to be the world’s leading economic and military power, according to Pew.
For Democrats, the survey finds a 5-point drop from 2024. Democrats have also long been less critical than Republicans when it comes to China.
The survey was fielded before Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, though, so it’s possible that his 145% tariff on China (or is it 245%?) has reminded Republicans to start hating the nation again.
Any updates?
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Maine’s perennially concerned Republican Sen. Susan Collins holds a seat Democrats must win to have a real shot of retaking the chamber in the near future, and a new poll brings welcome news: Collins is much more unpopular than she was at this point six years ago, ahead of her 2020 reelection, according to Morning Consult. In 2019, 52% of Maine voters approved of the job she was doing, while 39% disapproved. Now only 42% approve, and 51% disapprove.
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As the Trump administration illegally deports Maryland fathers and student activists without due process, it does so with very little public support. A new poll from Data for Progress finds that even most Republicans support giving common due process rights, such as the right to a fair trial, to legal immigrants. Additionally, 57% of likely voters think the government should be able to deport undocumented migrants only if it provides evidence for their deportation and offers them a hearing.
Vibe check
Democratic voters’ view of Harris has soured slightly since the 2024 election, according to Civiqs. The day before last year’s election, 93% of Democratic voters had a favorable view of her, while only 5% had a negative view.
However, as of this past Monday, only 87% have a favorable view of her, and 8% have an unfavorable view.
Also notable is that Civiqs has been tracking her favorability since November 2017, and she has never once had a net-positive rating among all registered voters.
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