Senate GOP braces for primary headaches after 2024 break

After a two-year hiatus, Senate GOP primaries are on the way back.

Senate Republicans are bracing for a midterm cycle that could be littered with nasty primary challenges to both incumbents and preferred candidates alike, marking a stark change after party leaders worked hand in glove with President Trump to root them out to help boost their efforts in 2024.

Those efforts paid off handsomely last cycle, with Senate Republicans being able to sidestep a number of potential primary landmines en route to a 53-seat majority that is already paying dividends in Trump’s first 100 days. 

But 2026 is shaping up to be very different with Republicans staring down upward of a half-dozen potential primary battles as they look to keep hold of their majority, potentially making this cycle even more perilous than it was already shaping up to be. 

“There’s a real opportunity to get to 54, 55 seats [this cycle],” one GOP operative who has worked on Senate races told The Hill. “Putting any red seat in play after a divisive primary where you potentially get a weak challenger that allows Democrats to give some degree of hope is incredibly ill-advised.”

After a rough 2022 midterm cycle, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) altered the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) tactics so the party would take a more heavy-handed approach. That included identifying preferred candidates — particularly those who could self-fund — who could win both a primary and a general election. That stamped out meddlesome primaries by getting Trump on the same page and supporting those candidates, and by saving money that could be used in November instead of in costly intraparty battles.

This resulted in a single competitive primary in Ohio, a competitive state.

While the committee is hoping to build off that success, primaries have already started to emerge, with a number of incumbent senators serving as prime examples — a group the NRSC has made clear it will protect as they look at the rest of the map on a case-by-case basis.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a longtime GOP leadership member and ally, is staring down a primary from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, one that promises to be bitter throughout given their personal rivalry. 

In Louisiana, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is facing a primary challenge from former Rep. John Fleming (R). The sitting senator has long been a target of Trump World due to his vote to convict the president in his second impeachment over his actions related to Jan. 6, 2021. 

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) could be on the receiving end of one in the coming months given conservative backlash he’s received over the years for some bipartisan work. 

There also are set to be a number of open-seat states and Democratic-held seats that could feature Republican primary battles. Former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) is expected to face off with Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), who is set to officially announce a run next week. The winner will replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) announced a second bid in as many cycles in the Wolverine State last week. But unlike last year, it is less clear that he will be able to skate through a primary. Despite being endorsed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and the NRSC, Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) did not appear dissuaded from a potential run, though it is unclear whether he will actually launch one of his own.

Finally, the Georgia GOP primary is a major question mark as the field would likely be cleared if Gov. Brian Kemp (R) decides to take the plunge. But if he doesn’t, that race could get crowded fast. 

“It's harder to ask people to sit this one out than it was last year,” one Senate GOP aide said. “We’re coming off a really successful cycle, and that's good for business. The recruiting effort is really different.”

On top of the aforementioned list of states, there are also a number of them percolating on the periphery as multiple Senate Republicans look at possible gubernatorial runs, headlined by Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) and Mike Rounds (R-S.D.).

Despite the consternation, there is an upside to some of the primaries, particularly those in the open-seat contests. Despite the potentially high spending, operatives are quick to note that a robust primary can help an eventual general election candidate sharpen their operation and serve as a testing ground for November. 

However, it’s the efforts against incumbents that are worrisome, with members and operatives staring at two people to weed them out: Trump and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), the new NRSC chair. 

Cornyn’s race is the highest profile given his stature in the conference and years-long feud with Paxton, who is an ardent Trump ally. But given Trump’s need for the Texas senator’s support to advance his agenda, Republicans believe he will endorse Cornyn at the end of the day. 

GOP members also believe that the onus is on Scott to help make that happen, with some concerned that his rosy exterior could present problems down the road and looking toward the Cornyn race as a major test case. 

“The early thought is: He’s a nice guy, he’s just got to be very assertive,” one Senate Republican said. “I don’t think anyone’s judged him. Everybody loves Tim. He’s a nice guy, but they are afraid that niceness could end up creating some exposure that we don’t need.” 

“If Cornyn wins the primary, we’re not going to have to spend a lot of money in the general. If Paxton wins the primary, we’re going to have to spend a lot of money in the general because he’s a flawed candidate,” the Senate GOP member continued. 

“If Tim is really going to step up and be an effective leader in the conference, he’s got to go down [to to the White House] and say, ‘You’re not doing us any favors. You’re costing us money in a resource-constrained cycle,'” the member added.

The NRSC took issue with the criticism and argued that members need to recalibrate their focus. The committee has already issued warnings to members and their top aides that their individual operations need to carry more weight on the fundraising side. 

“The NRSC had a record-breaking first quarter raising the money needed to begin paying off the debt incurred retaking the majority. Chairman Scott and [Leader John Thune] are focused on one thing: protecting and growing the majority,” said Jennifer DeCasper, the NRSC’s executive director. “Anyone saying otherwise clearly isn’t doing the same.”

Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.), an NRSC vice chair, also defended the party’s unity at these early stages in a statement.

“Senate Republicans are more united than ever, working as one team to grow the majority,” Britt said. “We are breaking committee fundraising records, turning promises made into promises kept, and exposing the left’s radically out-of-touch policies while Democrats continue to be in disarray and on defense.”

Successful primaries against incumbent members are incredibly rare, with the last one on the GOP side coming in 2012, when Richard Mourdock defeated the late Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.).

The 2010 and 2012 cycles served as a turning point for the Senate GOP, led by McConnell, to start playing in primaries. That culminated in the 2014 cycle, which produced a class that helped give Republicans the majority.  

Twelve years later, many of those are likely to be on the ballot once again. 

“These were the candidates in most cases who the party intervened for. And now there seems to be some who want to challenge them,” the first GOP operative said, calling the full-circle moment “funny.”