Sizing Up The AL West At The 1/8 Mark

This weekend marked the 1/8 point in the season, with teams getting into the low 20s in games played. The Rangers got off to the best start with the other 4 teams all mucking right around the .500 mark even if they came to it in different ways with the A’s trending up, the Angels trending down, the Astros and Mariners following the won-loss pattern of a series of coin flips.

1/8 of a season is not enough to conclude “who they are” about a team, but it’s also enough time to see some indicators. So with 21 or 22 down and about 140 to go, what have we seen so far in the AL West and what might we anticipate going forward?

Who Is “The Team To Beat”?

Pre-season pundits leaned Rangers while recent history gives the Astros the incumbency and with it the best record to build on. So far Texas has outclassed Houston every step of the way, starting strong while the Astros stumbled out of the gate and staying several games over .500 while Houston struggles to win half the time.

That being said, the two teams are separated by only 2.5 games in the standings and there is something to be said for it being Houston’s to lose until someone dethrones them. The Astros have won the division in every 162 game season since 2016. Here’s a look at each team in order of 2024 finish...

Houston Astros

Winners of 88 games last season, that’s down from 90 the year before and 106 the year before that. The Astros’ diminishing fortunes correlate with the loss of key players and that pattern continued this past off-season.

Houston is trying to equal or better those 88 wins after losing Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Ryan Pressly, and moving Jose Altuve to LF. Those are significant losses and changes which could explain a team winning more like the 81 the Astros are currently on pace for.

But I would caution that the Astros have also made some gains that could help them tread water. Isaac Paredes is not Bregman but he is a quality 3Bman, and Cam Smith was a prized return in the Tucker deal who is starting in RF every day and holding his own (.231/.298/.442, 3 HR, +1 DRS) at age 22 while getting his feet wet.

There is still plenty of talent on the roster, from Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown to Jeremy Peña and Yordan Alvarez. Pressly is gone but Bryan Abreu remains, Altuve is doing Altuve things and batting .305.

But Altuve is also butchering LF (-4 DRS already), Christian Walker is off to a brutal start (.164/.265/.274) at age 34, Ronel Blanco has been terrible (6.48 ERA), and the back of the rotation is unremarkable (Hayden Wesneski, Spencer Arrighetti, Ryan Gusto).

I think what is fair to say is that this is not your Astros’ juggernaut of 2017-2024 led by multiple stars. It is a decent but flawed team that is most likely somewhere between their currently projected 81 wins and last year’s 88.

They are looking to me like about an 85 win team, which puts them in strong contention for a weaker-than-usual AL West but does not make them a clear favorite.

Seattle Mariners

Coming off of a bizarre off-season in which they didn’t really address their deep weakness of a terrible offense, the Mariners are hoping to be carried on the backs of their fantastic starting pitching.

So far it has worked about half the time. Losing George Kirby was a big blow because the team is so dependent on its starting pitching, but at the same time even without Kirby the rotation is excellent.

Here’s a shocker: Through their first 21 games the Mariners batted .218 as a team. It’s almost as if they needed to address their lineup this past winter. With a 3.80 team ERA their pitching has been very solid, though not dominant. The defense has been adequate, committing only 9 errors (tied for 6th fewest), though the M’s rank just 22nd in overall defensive ranking.

They are looking to me like a “what you’ve seen is what you’ll get” team that can expect to win half its games. Trouble is, that means they can also expect to lose half its games.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers might be the most interesting team to try to gauge. Keep in mind that they are coming off of just a 78 win season, so the question is have they added a lot more than they’ve lost to be able to win 10+ more games.

You could argue they added Jacob DeGrom in that DeGrom made only 3 starts in 2024. But will they get 30 starts from him in 2025? 25? 20? 12? We don’t know, but what we do know is that since the pandemic he has made 15, then 11, then 6, then 3.

It’s quite possible the Rangers’ fortunes will correlate strongly with how DeGrom’s arm holds up. It might be worth noting that his fastball velo, while great, has been down 2 MPH from 2023, when it averaged 99.1 MPH. So far this year it’s 97.1 MPH, and his performance has been good-but-not-other-worldly (3.32 ERA, 20 K in 21.2 IP).

Tyler Mahle has been sensational (3-0, 0.68 ERA through 5 starts), but there are signs he is due for some regression (not that you would expect him to maintain an 0.68 ERA all season). His fastball velocity is down 1 MPH from his career average, though he has vacillated 1 MPH in either direction throughout his career so that’s not necessarily a red flag.

But he has also walked 12 in 27.2 IP and has only averaged 5.3 IP per start meaning he is benefiting from not facing the order a third time and putting pressure on the bullpen to eat around 4 innings.

Meanwhile, Kumar Rocker has been hit hard (6.38 ERA) and Texas is trying to weather the injuries to Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, and Jack Leiter. It could be that when those pitchers return the Rangers take off and dominate the division — or it could be that as one pitcher returns another goes down and Texas’ lack of depth is exposed.

On the lineup front, the loss of Nathaniel Lowe was significant but Texas returns a lot of premier talent — but it’s not all performing at a premier level. Marcus Semien has been strangely terrible, batting .141./209/.192 with neutral defense, both huge drops from recent seasons. Adolis Garcia was the hero Saturday but he’s hitting .216 after batting .224 last year.

All in all, Texas will go as far as their starting pitching holds up. Before the season I predicted they would have a strong start but by mid-season their lack of SP depth would catch up to them. They’re off to a strong start but the season has 7/8 left and it’s hard to say which way it will go.

They are looking to me like about an 86 win team with a lot of variance — I wouldn’t be shocked if they won 92 but I wouldn’t be shocked either if they repeated 78.

Los Angeles Angels Of The Land Of Large Mice

I think this is a bad team that has looked ok in a small sample. They have Jo Adell playing CF even though he’s a career .212/.268/.380 hitter with a 31.9% K rate and is probably stretched at the position. They have some legitimately good players — Logan O’Hoppe and Zach Neto come to mind — along with their superstar in Mike Trout, but they also trot out an awful lot of mediocrity, especially on the mound.

The Angels’ rotation is led by Yusei Kikuchi and while he isn’t a bad pitcher he isn’t worth the hype or contract he was afforded. He’s off to a so-so start with a 4.13 ERA. Jose Soriano might wind up being their best SP, but after that they’re trotting out the tattered remains of Kyle Hendricks, the enigmatic Tyler Anderson (2.08 ERA so far but 12 BB in 21.2 IP), and something called a Jack Kochanowicz who has a 6.20 ERA and a 4.43 K/9 IP rate. (Note: when your ERA is higher than your K rate, something isn’t going quite the way you hoped.)

They are looking to me like a team that will replace the A’s as the AL West’s 93 loss team. I expect them to settle into last place by mid-season never to look back.

And of course there’s...the A’s, about whom I regularly analyze the good, the bad, and the ugly (guess which one showed up today?). So we’ll save those nuggets for ongoing pieces about the pitching, the hitting, the defense, individual players, and ridiculous rostering decisions.

I still think if you’re at .500 at the end August you will have a chance — even if it’s an outside one — at winning the AL West. I’m not convinced there’s a 90 team there and there wasn’t in 2024.

And everything will undoubtedly have come into sharper focus after the next 1/8 of a season. And just as certainly the waters will still be murky with most of the season still ahead.