NHL Playoffs: Western Conference first round predictions

Who will win in the first round of the playoffs?

First, if you haven’t joined our NHL Bracket Challenge, don’t rip these predictions off. Or go ahead and take ‘em, what can I do about it. But join anyways and make your own selections.

We’ll start with the Western Conference today, since it has the first two games of the playoffs kicking off tonight.

Winnipeg Jets (1st Central) vs. St. Louis Blues (Wild Card 2)

This might be one of the more blasé matchups that isn’t drawing a lot of buzz, so maybe it will surprise by giving some juice.

The Jets enter the playoffs with a league-high 56 wins and 116 points in the standings. The Blues made the postseason in large part due to a late-season 12 game winning streak that makes them one of the more intriguing teams around due to peaking at the right time. It’s worth wondering if that peak is over since STL had a 1-2-1 record in their last four games and could be missing Dylan Holloway for this series (Holloway was injured and hasn’t played since taking a hit from none other than Rutger McGroaty of the Penguins earlier this month).

The Athletic summed this matchup up well in saying, “the Blues are a threat, but this is still Winnipeg’s series to lose.”

Connor Hellebuyck has been amazing as one of the sport’s top netminders but hasn’t had the best run in the playoffs lately with a 2-8 record in the last two seasons and .870ish save percentage along the way. The level of competition explains part of that with Winnipeg out-manned against Vegas in ‘23 and Colorado last spring and Hellebuyck having no chance to shine. That won’t be happening again in the first round this year, the Jets are a better and deeper team throughout the lineups so this one looks like it could be straight forward.

Prediction: Jets in 5

Dallas Stars (2nd Central) vs. Colorado Avalanche (3rd Central)

Talk about a powerhouse opening round matchup featuring two 100+ point teams. Someone’s offseason is going to start very early but the winner might take some momentum in passing a very difficult first test in the Mikko Rantanen Bowl. Rantanen started the season in Colorado but ends up playing for the Stars now, how much of an impact that will have as a potential difference-maker will be a fun key to watch unfold.

Dallas has limped into the playoffs with a 3-5-2 record in their last 10 games. The questions around the availability of (no pun) star defender Miko Heiskanen is another critical factor. Without Heiskanen the Stars have looked ordinary, but with him at full power they swing towards being one of the best in the league.

If Heiskanen is missing or limited, Dallas will have a hard time slowing Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar down. Those two have helped the Avs get out of the first round of the playoffs in five of the last six seasons, it’s usually a good bet to advance Colorado. (Dallas is no slouch themselves in that department with a 2-1 first series record and two straight seasons of winning the first round)

This series could be considered a true coin flip for who advances but we’ll take the team entering with better health. As an observer and fan of the sport, the main item to cheer for would be getting a Game 7 out of this series, that would be some tremendous theater.

Prediction: Avalanche in 7

Vegas Golden Knights (1st Pacific) vs. Minnesota Wild (Wild Card 1)

On paper this series looks like a mismatch. The Knights are a deeper and more consistent team. The Wild only have a few legit offensive threats, the dangerous Kirill Kaprizov is an outlier on a Minnesota team that finished 25th in the NHL in scoring this season and makes you wonder how they even got into the playoffs with Kaprizov missing an even half of the season (41 games played).

Surprises can always happen in a NHL playoff series but it would take a significant one here for Minnesota to defeat a stronger opponent, maybe even hanging with them for a while would be an achievement.

This one looks open and shut, Vegas gets a great reward for winning the division by having an easier playoff matchup than the one we’re about to get to talking about..

Prediction: Golden Knights in 5

Los Angeles Kings (2nd Pacific) vs. Edmonton Oilers (3rd Pacific)

For the fourth straight season the Kings and Oilers will lock horns in the first round of the playoffs. So far Connor McDavid and the Oilers are 3-0 in these matchups but they have major injury concerns of their own, most notably key defenseman Mattias Ekholm expected out for all of this round.

Los Angeles is one of the NHL’s best defensive teams, their 206 goals allowed in the regular season ranked second in the West behind only Winnipeg. The Kings are built to shut teams down but that hasn’t held up to keep McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in check during the postseason. Last year McDavid put up 12 points in six playoff games against LA, Draisaitl was right behind him with 10. The year before in 2023 it was even more with McDavid producing 12 points in just five games (and Draisaitl notching 11).

It’s been proven time and again that the Edmonton’s edge in star power defeats LA’s greatest strength. Maybe the Kings having a home ice advantage will matter — the LA was an amazing 31-6-4 at home this season to lead the NHL in points earned and tie with Carolina for most home wins. But can a Los Angeles team that ranks seventh among playoff teams in the West in goals during the regular season really be able to keep up with the Oil when No. 97 and 29 flip it into playoff mode? It hasn’t broken that way yet in this matchup, we’re not going to predict it to start now.

Prediction: Oilers in 6

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That adds up to a fairly chalk-y first round outlook. Gee, what could go wrong? The good or bad thing depending on perspective is that the divisional 2 vs 3 matchups in the first round tend to lead to some amazing matchups and the potential for some of the best hockey of the year. That shouldn’t disappoint or be any different this year.