Gasoline prices are likely to dip this summer in the DC area and nationwide
A new report from the Department of Energy shows gasoline supplies will be more than adequate this summer and prices will continue to trend lower, even as driving is expected to increase.
The DOE’s Energy Information Administration releases its Short Term Energy Outlook report each month. April’s report forecasts the U.S. retail price for regular-grade gasoline will average about $3.10 per gallon this summer, mostly because of expected lower crude oil prices. This would be the lowest inflation-adjusted summer average gasoline price since 2020.
Gas prices are expected to be slightly above the national average in D.C., but in line with the national forecast in Maryland and Virginia. Some parts of the country, especially in oil and gas producing regions — including Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and New Mexico — could see prices below $3 a gallon.
AAA puts the average price for gasoline in D.C. at $3.25 a gallon. Maryland is $3.18 and Virginia is $3.02. However, the average in oil-rich Texas is just $2.75 a gallon.
“There may be a lot of problems with the economy this year, but higher prices for oil, whether it is gasoline, jet fuel or diesel, do not appear to be on the horizon,” independent oil analyst Tom Kloza told WTOP. “We’re looking at crude oil prices that are as low as they have been since ’20-21 and on gasoline, most Americans will pay 40 to 50 cents less than they did last year.”
If these numbers hold, and there is no event, such as a significant disruption in oil supply or a major hurricane, prices will stay at the lowest level in five years.
Patrick De Haan, gas price analyst for GasBuddy, said prices in D.C. have actually fallen a bit more than the national average.
“The D.C. average is now down two cents a gallon from a week ago … 56 cents per gallon lower than we saw a year ago,” De Haan said. “The switchover to summer gasoline is largely complete. Refineries are starting to finish up maintenance and boosting supply for the rest of the summer.”
The Energy Information Administration report credited the drop in oil prices in part to the expansion of oil production in the U.S. (which is expected to reach a record high of 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025), as well as the Trump administration’s decision to exempt energy from its recently announced tariffs.
“But market uncertainty could lead to lower economic growth, which could lead to less growth in demand for petroleum products than EIA had previously forecast,” the report said.
Kloza said other factors, unrelated to the Trump administration, are also playing a role in gas prices.
“It was always setting up to be a cheaper year, regardless of who won the election,” Kloza said. “Because there were about six million barrels a day of excess OPEC capacity and U.S. production is pretty brisk.”
The benchmark oil used by traders, West Texas Intermediate, was trading at midday Tuesday at just above $61 a barrel, compared to nearly $85 a barrel one year ago.
Looking at the long-term forecast, Kloza and De Haan said prices could fall even further, especially if the U.S. slips into a recession and people start driving less.
“If we do get that global slowdown that comes with a recession, or something that looks like a recession, we’ll have too much oil,” Kloza said.
“Gasoline demand numbers continue to look rather soft,” De Haan said. “Some of the uncertainty over the broader economy, the stock market could be impacting demand. That is something we will continue to watch.”