Series Preview: Guardians at Orioles
Let’s aim for a winning road trip
The Guardians righted the ship at home; now it’s time to see if they can keep sailing steady on the Chesapeake Bay against the Baltimore Orioles.
The Guardians are 8-7 with a -2 run differential, 17th in MLB with a team 99 wRC+, 25th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at -1.4, 23rd in Defense at -4.6, 28th in starting pitcher SIERA at 4.53, and eighth in bullpen SIERA at 3.06. The Orioles are 6-9 with a -6 run differential, 13th in MLB with a team 103 wRC+, 20th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at -0.6, 28th in Defense at -6.4, 25th in starting pitcher SIERA at 4.30, and 21st in bullpen SIERA at 3.84.
Both teams made the playoffs in 2024 and didn’t do a lot in the offseason; both are off to somewhat uneven starts and have underlying numbers that make them look like mediocre squads. Let’s see which team will emerge from this series looking the most competitive of the two.
Matchups:
Tuesday, 7:05PM ET, Logan T. Allen, LHP 6.01 SIERA vs. Charlie Morton, RHP, 3.94 SIERA
Wednesday, 6:35PM ET, Gavin Williams, RHP, 3.85 SIERA vs. Dean Kremer, RHP, 4.16 SIERA
Thursday, 6:35PM ET, Tanner Bibee, RHP, 5.10 SIERA vs. Tomoyuki Sugano, RHP, 5.67 SIERA
Analysis:
On paper, I think the Guardians have an advantage in games 2 and 3, and the first game looks to be a slugfest. Guards’ pitchers will look to control Cedric Mullins 184 wRC+, Tyler O’Neill 159 wRC+, Adley Rutschman 138 wRC+, Ryan O’Hearn 123 wRC+ and Jordan Westburg 108 wRC+. The Orioles will see if they can minimize damage from Angel Martinez 220 wRC+, Austin Hedges 153 wRC+ (interested to see how long he can last on this list?), Steven Kwan 144 wRC+, Gabriel Arias 142 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 128 wRC+, and Carlos Santana 108 wRC+.
If I can glance into my crystal ball, this will be a series where Emmanuel Clase will have two chances to save games. If he’s figured out his location issues and mechanics issues distinguishing his slider release from his cutter release, I feel good about the Guaridans’ chances of winning the series. Meanwhile, let’s hope some left-handed hitters who have LOOKED better than their results - Nolan Jones, Bo Naylor and Brayan Rocchio (against RHP) - find a way to get things going in this series as they see three righty starters.