UFC 314 predictions
Alexander Volkanovski has been here before, but the circumstances are unusual to say the least.
Obviously, Volkanovski is accustomed to big moments. “The Great” has fought in nothing but championship bouts since 2019 and on Saturday he does so again when he fights Diego Lopes for a vacant featherweight title in the main event of UFC 314. It’s the same title Volkanovski held and successfully defended for five years and that is up for grabs once more with soon-to-be former champion Ilia Topuria leaving the division in search of lightweight glory.
But he’s never fought for a title coming off of a 14-month layoff. And coming off of two devastating knockout losses. Here’s the list of fighters to win an undisputed UFC title on a two-fight losing streak:
It feels incredibly weird declaring the deck is stacked against one of the best fighters ever - especially when most oddsmakers have him slightly favored - but this is about as tall a mountain as Volkanovski has ever had to climb.
Lopes is a worthy challenger, having made it to the UFC the hard way and endeared himself to fans and matchmakers with his anyone, anywhere attitude. He debuted by putting a scare in the undefeated Movsar Evloev and has since won five straight, establishing himself as a fresh face that also has plenty of high-level experience.
Will the conclusion of Lopes’ championship journey also signal the end of Volkanovski’s storied career?
Also on the main card, Michael Chandler and Paddy Pimblett meet in a five-round lightweight co-main event, Yair Rodriguez welcomes multiple-time Bellator champion Patricio Pitbull to the octagon, Bryce Mitchell and Jean Silva clash after a wild build-up, and Nikita Krylov returns from a two-year hiatus to face the resurgent Dominick Reyes.
What: UFC 314
Where: Kaseya Center in Miami
When: Saturday, April 12. The four-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Disney+, followed by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPN, ESPN+ and Disney+ at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Alexander Volkanovski (2, P4P-T13) vs. Diego Lopes (5)
Skill for skill, Alexander Volkanovski is still as good as it gets.
Elite boxing? Check. Rock-solid wrestling? Check. Airtight grappling? Check. Expert clinch work? Check. Even at 36 years young, he can do it all. The first fight with Islam Makhachev showed how high a level he can reach and before he was caught by Ilia Topuria, Volkanovski looked like he was still ready to go a hard five rounds with “La Leyenda.”
But there’s also the second fight with Makhachev to consider. And the fact that he was caught by Topuria at all. Volkanovski has taken a year off to recover, which can only help, but how much? It’s not just the mileage, it’s the rough terrain Volkanovski has navigated throughout his UFC career. At some point, you lose a step, and when you do, there’s a dozen hungry fighters looking to take a step ahead of you.
Enter Diego Lopes.
The hardened Lopes didn’t take the sexy route to his championship opportunity. He’s not an undefeated blue-chip prospect, he’s not coming off a string of highlight-reel knockouts, he’s not going to war on the microphone to force the matchmakers’ hands. It took him nine years to get a look on Dana White’s Contender Series. Then he lost and it was right back to the drawing board.
Lopes’ best ability has arguably been availability, but don’t discount what he can do in the cage. He’s a great striker and an outstanding grappler, more than skilled enough in both departments to challenge even a prime Volkanovski. Or beat this version.
I’m picking Lopes. The 170-pound weight class and below isn’t kind to fighters 35 and up, especially warriors like Volkanovski who have left it all in the cage across multiple continents. Lopes might not have the striking to put Volkanovski down for good, but he will knock him down early, setting the tone for the rest of a competitive fight.
Wherever Volkanovski goes after this one, it won’t be as featherweight champion.
Pick: Lopes
Michael Chandler (14) vs. Paddy Pimblett
I predicted - nay, manifested this fight to happen on an episode of On To the Next One some time ago, and I’m not apologizing for it. I’m also not apologizing for picking Paddy Pimblett to take Michael Chandler’s spot in the rankings.
Chandler’s UFC run has been memorable to say the least as he’s somehow managed to gain popularity and continue booking fights against the top names in the lightweight division despite not, you know, winning much? It’s understandable if you’ve watched his fights, which are always compelling one way or another, and he still has a lot of that former Bellator star cachet. However, at some point he has to drop a notch in the estimation of the matchmakers. A loss to Pimblett should do it.
Pimblett’s dangerous grappling is all he needs to deal with Chandler, a good offensive wrestler that has never been great at avoiding takedowns. “Iron Mike” is more than happy to scramble and power his way out of danger, much to the entertainment of the fans and his own detriment. He’s going to be wearing Pimblett like a backpack for much of this fight and even with five rounds to work with, that could cost him on the scorecards.
The five rounds make this intriguing as Chandler has a deep gas tank and the Florida crowd could push him to an energetic final lap if Pimblett can’t put him away early (which I doubt he can). Pimblett needs to bank at least three of the first four rounds because if it’s a toss-up going into the fifth, Chandler is going to raise hell and push a pace Pimblett can’t match.
That said, I have Pimblett doing what he needs to be up on the scorecards and surviving the last five minutes of the fight. The result should be a real people pleaser all around as Pimblett fans will have another big win to celebrate and Pimblett haters will have more than enough fodder with which to poke holes in the outcome.
Pick: Pimblett
Yair Rodriguez (8) vs. Patricio Pitbull (9)
My heart said Patricio Pitbull when this fight was announced, but the brain has come around to Yair Rodriguez.
The first factor one has to consider is quality of opposition. With respect to the solid Bellator featherweight division, it’s not a radical take to say Rodriguez’s UFC opponents have been of an objectively higher caliber. I’ve always been of the opinion Pitbull would have been a top 5 UFC featherweight in his prime, but that’s theoretical. Rodriguez has actually walked that walk.
Then there’s the sheer size advantage Rodriguez has. We’re not just talking about arm reach either. Rodriguez’s lethal kicks are a nightmare for Pitbull and while I trust Pitbull to mix in takedowns if opportunities are presented, he’s going to eat a lot of feet and knees before he can dig in.
If I were to give Pitbull an edge in anything, it might be hand speed, but even there Rodriguez is no slouch. He’s just a nightmare matchup for Pitbull, an absolute gamer that will give his all for three rounds in pursuit of his UFC championship dream.
It just won’t be enough.
Pick: Rodriguez
Jean Silva vs. Bryce Mitchell
From the moment this matchup was booked, Jean Silva by knockout was the obvious prediction. So obvious, I see no reason to deviate from it.
This is definitely a winnable matchup for Bryce Mitchell, given his excellent grappling and aggressive style. Putting a fighter like Silva on the back foot could be exactly what’s needed to defuse his explosive striking. So you can understand why Mitchell was quick to accept the opportunity to derail the hype train of one of the Fighting Nerds’ most promising representatives.
Silva’s speed will be the difference here, though. He’s quick on his feet and has shown he can defend takedowns and get up when he’s put on his back. His grappling defense has to be on point, but Mitchell isn’t going to have an easy time of it if he takes a one-dimensional approach to neutralizing Silva.
I’m not confident Mitchell can avoid Silva’s punches for three rounds, even if he has some success slowing him down at first. A knockout feels inevitable.
Pick: Silva
Nikita Krylov (9) vs. Dominick Reyes (15)
Dominick Reyes on a win streak? What year is this???
Your eyes do not deceive you. Reyes has strung together consecutive victories for the first time since 2019 and he looks both rejuvenated and free of the expectations that weighed him down for so long after being “that guy who almost beat Jon Jones.” Respectfully, his comeback has probably been helped by the fact that his past two opponents are older than him, but hey, wins are wins!
Krylov, despite having considerably more experience, is somehow younger than Reyes. He’s also been out of action for two years. This is just a weird matchup and yet a fitting one given their current rankings and streaks (Krylov has won three straight! When did that happen?)
Reyes’ athleticism and agility gave him a leg up on the competition early in his career and he’s as spry as ever. He’ll have to be defensively sound here because Krylov will look to close the distance and create as many clashes as possible, with the hopes of preventing Reyes from finding any sort of rhythm.
Expect this fight to be all kinds of junky for as long as it lasts, with Reyes eventually finding an angle from which to crack Krylov and lay him out.
Pick: Reyes
Preliminaries
Dan Ige def. Sean Woodson
Virna Jandiroba (5, P4P-18) def. Yan Xiaonan (3, P4P-11)
Chase Hooper def. Jim Miller
Julian Erosa def. Darren Elkins
Michal Oleksiejczuk def. Sedriques Dumas
Mitch Raposo def. Sumudaerji
Marco Tulio def. Tresean Gore