How much will an iPhone cost after Trump’s tariffs? A lot more. Or maybe not.

The markets are crashing, businesses large and small are worried about their future, and the world is increasingly looking toward a global recession. But most people I talk to about this chaotic economic landscape want to know one thing: “How much is my next iPhone going to cost?”

They are asking for a very good reason: The predominant countries where Apple makes many of its products—China and Vietnam (and to a lesser extent, India)—are the ones being hit the hardest by President Donald Trump’s tariffs at sky-high rates of 54%, 46%, and 26%, respectively.

This means that if the tariffs stick there’s a very good chance iPhone prices may rise. But by how much? And could Apple find a way to avoid price hikes? Let’s look at some possibilities.

Will an iPhone soon become 54% more expensive?

First, it’s important to note that this article is purely speculative. It’s impossible to predict the future—and the Trump administration’s economic policies could change in the days and weeks to come.

Second, estimating how much more an iPhone might soon cost in America if the tariffs do remain in place depends on numerous variables, including the country of origin for each part and where it is assembled (such as China or Vietnam), along with other factors.

Still, with those caveats in mind, let’s dive in.

For the basis of this thought exercise, let’s say that every iPhone comes from China, and the Trump administration ends up sticking that 54% tariff on an iPhone when it comes into America. If that’s the case, then I have some good-ish news for you: Your iPhone probably won’t be 54% more expensive.

That’s because, as FreightWaves noted last November, tariffs are applied to the declared value of the goods when they enter the country—not to the final retail value. When Apple imports a 256GB iPhone 16 Pro from China into the U.S., it doesn’t declare its value to be its final U.S. retail price of $1,099. 

Apple is very tight-lipped about the cost of the individual parts that go into an iPhone, but several companies have put estimates on it. For example, The Wall Street Journal recently said that according to research analysts at TechInsights, a 256GB iPhone 16 Pro’s parts cost Apple around $550 in total. 

Let’s say that that’s roughly in the ballpark. If Trump hit that iPhone with a 54% tariff, assuming the entirety of the phone and its parts came from China, then Apple would need to pay the U.S. government around $297, which is 54% of $550.

If Apple wanted to fully recoup that $297 cost exclusively from the U.S. consumer, it would add that amount to the iPhone 16 Pro’s existing retail price. This would mean that the 256GB iPhone 16 Pro would rise from today’s price of $1,099 to $1,396. That represents a significant price increase of approximately 27% from the consumer’s perspective. While it’s not anywhere close to 54%, it is more than a quarter more expensive than the current iPhone model.

Of course, this is just one estimate for one iPhone model. Others have suggested some iPhone models could be up to 43% more expensive if Apple were to pass the costs of the tariffs on to customers.

The good news is that Apple doesn’t have to pass that cost on to the end buyer.

Apple has options to keep iPhone prices down

Many companies, particularly small and midsize ones, often have limited options for dealing with tariffs. They generally have one of three choices:

The first is to maintain retail prices and absorb the cost of the tariff themselves. This approach would satisfy customers and likely not result in a direct drop in sales, but it could negatively impact the company’s profit margins and bottom lines—which could make continuing to operate financially unfeasible.

The second is to pass the cost of the tariff on to consumers by incorporating the tariff cost into the retail price. This would allow the company to maintain its current profit margins, but the increased costs of its goods could alienate customers and result in reduced sales, ultimately leading to a worse bottom line.

A third is a hybrid of the two: absorbing some of the tariff costs while also passing a portion of the costs on to customers. This approach requires a delicate balance and could still impact profit margins and alienate customers, ultimately leading to a decrease in the bottom line.

Apple has all three options available. However, the company also possesses a few additional choices—simply because it is so large, powerful, and wealthy—that most small and midsize businesses do not. 

As noted by respected TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple could pressure its suppliers in Asia to reduce the prices they charge the iPhone maker. Why would Apple’s suppliers be willing to take the tariff hit? Because Apple is likely their biggest customer—one they want to keep for decades to come. Those suppliers may be willing to endure a short- to medium-term financial loss if it keeps Apple happy in the long term.

Kou also notes that Apple could move more of its production away from China to Vietnam and India, which face lower tariffs (although not significantly lower in Vietnam’s case). More importantly, those countries are more likely to negotiate new trade agreements with the Trump administration faster than China. 

So, what will Apple do?

The only thing I can say with any kind of reasonable certainty is that if you are thinking of buying an iPhone, you should do it sooner rather than later if you want to lock in today’s prices. The Times of India reports that Apple spent the last week of March flying planes full of iPhones from India to the U.S. to beat Trump’s tariffs, which take effect on April 9. Because those iPhones made it into the U.S. before the tariffs took effect, Apple will still be able to sell them at today’s retail price without needing to take the tariff hit.

But those planeloads of iPhones are only going to last so long. Any iPhones imported after April 8 will be subject to tariffs—meaning Apple may subject the iPhone to price hikes a short time later.