The Memo: Musk’s risks to Trump become starker

The Elon Musk effect is being hotly debated in Republican circles this weekend, even as the reverberations from President Trump’s tariff policies dominate the headlines.

Put simply, the question is whether Musk is an asset or liability to Trump.

Speculation is rife once again that Musk could leave his role at the quasi-official Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) soon.

And questions are sharper than ever about the pluses and minuses of the billionaire’s broader political role after conservative candidate Brad Schimel was comfortably defeated by his liberal opponent Susan Crawford in Tuesday’s Wisconsin Supreme Court election.

Musk and his affiliated groups had spent about $20 million on the race, hoping to lift Schimel’s candidacy. His political action committee offered $100 per person to signers of a petition opposing “activist judges.” It also awarded two $1 million checks to individuals who had done so — one of whom was the chair of the Wisconsin College Republicans. Musk presented the checks himself amid meandering remarks at a public event in Green Bay last Sunday.

But Musk’s involvement in Wisconsin also became a rallying point for liberals and Democrats who accused him of trying to buy an election.

Musk’s political assets and liabilities in that case appeared to cancel each other out, with Crawford’s 10-point margin of victory almost identical to the last election to the court, in 2023, when another liberal candidate prevailed by 11 points.

But Musk’s fate, of course, will ultimately hinge on Trump himself.

The businessman has taken every opportunity to ingratiate himself with the president whose election chances he boosted with almost $300 million in spending. Musk often says that the sweeping cuts to government he is planning via DOGE would only be possible with Trump in the Oval Office.

Trump in turn has so far poured cold water on the idea of any rift or falling-out between the two men, at least of the sort their detractors have often predicted. But he has been conspicuously vague about what exactly is next for Musk.

“I want Elon to stay as long as possible,” Trump told reporters traveling with him on Air Force One Thursday. “There’s going to be a point where he’s going to have to leave.”

Politico reported earlier this week that Trump had told Cabinet members and others close to him that Musk would step back in the coming weeks.

The most likely exit point would seem to come 130 days into the Trump administration. That’s the total number of days that someone with Musk’s status — a Special Government Employee, subject to fewer disclosure requirements than a fully-fledged member of the administration — is supposed to serve. This timetable would have him departing in late May.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, meanwhile, wrote on the social media platform X that “Elon will depart from public service as a special government employee when his incredible work at DOGE is complete.”

The key question remains whether he is net plus or minus for Trump.

“Look, I think anyone worth as much money as he is can obviously be helpful. His willingness to spend hundreds of millions of dollars is a real asset for Republicans,” said GOP strategist Alex Conant.

But, Conant added, “The DOGE work is controversial, and I think he knows it. After shunning the media for the first two months, he has been on a bit of a media blitz. I think he knows he has to sell what he is doing with DOGE to the American people.”

One problem, however, is that Musk has a tendency to land himself in deeper trouble with his public comments, as when he recently called Social Security a “Ponzi scheme” in an interview with Joe Rogan.

The divisive nature of DOGE’s work has led to embarrassing episodes like the firing and rehiring of federal workers dealing with nuclear safety, and has also been marked by a number of instances where the quasi-official agency has misstated the savings it has made.

Public polling consistently shows Musk to be more unpopular than Trump, and his low approval ratings from women are particularly striking.,

A Quinnipiac University poll last month showed him to be seen unfavorably by 57 percent of Americana and favorably by 36 percent. Among women, a mere 26 percent viewed him favorably, while more than twice as many, 66 percent, viewed him unfavorably.

“I think people, from the White House to the small Wisconsin farmer, are just getting sick of Elon Musk,” said John ‘Mac’ Stipanovich, a longtime GOP operative in Florida and a Trump critic.

“If he were a little more humble, a little less aggressive, maybe he would have gotten farther with this,” he added.

Musk also has his business interests to consider. Tesla’s sales have eroded badly as he has become a more polarizing figure. The electric car-maker’s deliveries fell by 13 percent, year-on-year, in the first quarter.

One inherently unanswerable question is whether Musk serves as a “heat shield” of a kind for Trump, drawing criticism to himself and away from the president — or whether the unpopularity of Musk rubs off on the president.

“He has become a big target for Democrats and he has given Democrats some fodder,” Conant said. “But I also think Trump doesn’t mind someone else taking the arrows.”

Democrats are going to keep aiming barbs at Musk, clearly.

The question is whether Trump is coming to see him as a vulnerability too.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.