South Korea court to decide impeached president's fate

by Claire LEE

The fate of South Korea's presidency hangs on the Constitutional Court Friday as it decides whether to uphold Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment over a disastrous martial law declaration or to return him to power.

Yoon, 64, was suspended by lawmakers over his December 3 attempt to subvert civilian rule, which saw armed soldiers deployed to parliament. He was also arrested on insurrection charges as part of a separate criminal case.

At least six of the Constitutional Court's eight justices must vote to remove Yoon. Otherwise, he will be reinstated.

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All eight justices arrived at the courthouse early Friday, a court spokesperson told AFP. The justices have been given additional security protection from police.

Police raised the alert to the highest possible level Friday, enabling the deployment of their entire force. Officers encircled the courthouse with a ring of vehicles and stationed special operations teams in the vicinity.

Nearby, authorities set up field medical clinics for any emergencies.

A large crowd of pro- and anti-Yoon protesters camped out near the court and the suspended leader's residence overnight, AFP reporters saw.

Anti-Yoon protesters were also streaming into central Seoul, AFP reporters saw.

- Political divisions -

If removed, Yoon would become the second South Korean leader to be impeached by the court after Park Geun-hye in 2017.

After weeks of tense hearings, judges spent more than a month deliberating the case, all while public unrest has swelled.

Yoon, who defended his attempt to subvert civilian rule as necessary to root out "anti-state forces", still commands the backing of extreme supporters, who have staged protests for weeks in the run-up to the verdict.

The wait for the ruling had led to the deepening of political divisions and the emergence of unverified conspiracy theories, some suggesting that the justices were locked in intense disagreements.

At least two staunch Yoon supporters -- one in his 70s and the other in his 50s -- have died after self-immolating in protest of the controversial leader's impeachment.

Opposition MP Back Hye-ryun last month was hit in the face with an egg outside the court, as she was urging justices to uphold Yoon's impeachment.

Embassies -- including the American, French, Russian and Chinese -- have warned citizens to avoid mass gatherings in connection with Friday's verdict.

The decision "would indicate first and foremost the resilience of South Korean democracy," Byunghwan Son, professor at George Mason University, told AFP.

"The very fact that the system did not collapse suggests that the Korean democracy can survive even the worst challenge against it -- a coup attempt."

- 'Highly unlikely' to reinstate -

South Korea has spent the four months since Yoon declared martial law without an effective head of state, as the opposition impeached Yoon's stand-in -- only for him to be later reinstated by a court ruling.

The leadership vacuum comes during a series of crises and headwinds, including an aviation disaster and the deadliest wildfires in the country's history.

This week, South Korea was slammed with 25 percent tariffs on exports to key ally the United States after President Donald Trump unveiled global, so-called reciprocal levies.

Since December, South Korea has been "partially paralysed -- it has been without a legitimate president and has been challenged by natural disasters and the political disaster called Trump," Vladimir Tikhonov, Korean Studies professor at the University of Oslo, told AFP.

Yoon also faces a separate criminal trial on charges of insurrection over the martial law bid, making him the first sitting South Korean president to stand trial in a criminal case.

Many law and constitution experts expect that the court will uphold Yoon's impeachment.

"Given the patently unconstitutional and illegal nature of attempting to seize the National Assembly through the deployment of martial law forces, it seems highly unlikely that a dismissal of the impeachment is a viable outcome," Lee Jong-soo, a professor at Yonsei University Law School, told AFP.

"Based solely on legal principles, I would expect an 8-0 unanimous ruling in favour of upholding the impeachment."

But another expert, professor Lee In-ho at Chung-Ang University's school of law, predicts the court could end in a deadlock.

Lee told AFP he thinks the impeachment will likely be dismissed with "the constitutional interpretation concerning the president's justification for declaring martial law (to) remain unresolved."