One big miscalculation could cost the Lakers an NBA Championship
The Lakers have a gap, and they fumbled the chance to fix it.
The Los Angeles Lakers are a very, very good team — that much is certain, but as we draw closer to the NBA Playoffs this team is looking much more like one that could see its run end in the Western Conference Finals, at best.
When it comes to big men at the top of the conference the Thunder have Chet Holmgren, the Rockets boast Alperen Şengün, the Nuggets have the incomparable Nikola Jokic. The Lakers? Well, they’ve got Jaxson Hayes. It’s one of the most biggest talent disparities among all the top teams in the NBA, and it could very well be their downfall. The strangest part of this is that it didn’t need to be this way.
The Lakers made the decision at the trade deadline to rescind their deal for Mark Williams with the Hornets. The cold feet purportedly came from Williams’ physical, something Charlotte pushed back against vehemently. At the time a majority of Lakers fans took the organization at face value, branding the trade as the Hornets trying to sell damaged goods. Now two months later it’s looking more and more like not making the deal could be the factor that stops the Lakers from potentially winning a championship.
Charlotte has played 20 games since the deal fell through. Williams has missed just two due to foot soreness, and a one more for load management. In the 17 games he’s played Williams has been on a tear, registering 12 double-doubles — averaging 15.3 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks.
Essentially Mark Williams has been everything the Lakers need for their playoff push, and while Dalton Knecht (the primary piece in the deal for Williams) has been quite good over that same span, his scoring has largely been superfluous with Luka and LeBron on the roster.
Defensively is where this team has struggled the most down the stretch. Since trading away Anthony Davis the Lakers have allowed an average of 115 points per game, which puts them in 8th in the West, and 18th overall in the NBA. Meanwhile the Hornets, who are an objectively terrible defensive team, have allowed 113 points per game over that same span.
Individually on offense we see this impact too. According to Dunks & Threes, Williams’ offensive EPM plus-minus is +1.4, while Hayes’ is -1.1. Couple that with the fact Williams is one of the best offensive rebounders in the NBA this season. The Hornets are grabbing 11.8% of offensive rebounds when he’s on the court, which beats out Hayes (8%), Anthony Davis (9.1%), and even Jokic (9.4%), and it supports the idea that he would be an absolute difference maker for the Lakers right now with a volume shooting of Doncic.
This isn’t to say the Lakers would absolutely win a championship with Mark Williams, but they’d be a lot closer than they are now — which made backing out of the trade all the more strange. Brass tacks: Williams is playing much better than anyone the Lakers have at a critical position, and thus far in 2024-25 their bet that Williams would be an injury liability has not paid off.
If the Los Angeles Lakers are unable to advance far in the playoffs this will be a huge reason why, and an unforced error they did not need.