The Rap-Up: With 7 games left, what’s Toronto’s Flagg-ic number?

In the penultimate edition of The Rap-Up, let’s check in on what Toronto has to do to solidify their lottery standing.

Suppose a ‘magic number’ is the combination of wins and losses that help a team clinch, and the ‘tragic number’ is the combination of wins and losses that result in a team being eliminated. What is it called when teams are trying to clinch their spot in the Cooper sweepstakes?

The Flagg-ic number!

Okay, not my best work, but you know you’re thinking about it too.

The Toronto Raptors are currently in the 7th spot in the draft lottery standings — 4 games clear of the Brooklyn Nets for 6th spot and 3.5 games clear of the San Antonio Spurs for 8th spot. It’s fair to assume the Raptors will have a 7.5% chance of landing the top overall pick and end the season with the 7th.

Toronto’s Flagg-ic number with the Spurs is 5. Any combination of five Toronto losses and San Antonio wins will ensure the Raptors finish below the Spurs in the overall standings.

Toronto’s Flagg-ic number with Portland (4) is the only other number of note, as Chicago (2), Miami (1), and Phoenix (1) should soon be too far to catch (all three as early as tonight).

San Antonio, Portland, and Toronto all play each other once more, so the Raptors may not need more to clinch 7th, especially with games against playoff (Detroit) and play-in (Chicago and Dallas) teams still to play.

April 1 @ Chicago Bulls

The Chicago Bulls might have the greatest collection of buzzer-beaters in the league. Michael Jordan over Craig Ehlo in the 1989 playoffs. DeMar DeRozan’s buzzer-beaters on back-to-back nights (New Year’s Eve 2021 and New Year’s Day 2022). Derrick Rose’s winner against the Cavaliers during the 2015 playoffs. Jordan over Byron Russell in the 1997 NBA Finals. Jordan....six other times in a Bulls uniform (his ninth was with the Wizards).

Somehow. Some way. Josh Giddey’s 47-foot bomb had the most chaotic ending.

Prediction

The Bulls had a 4-game win streak halted on Saturday after falling to the Dallas Mavericks. Chicago almost overcame an 11-point deficit in the final three minutes, but ultimately fell one point shy against their West counterpart also clinging to the final play-in position. Chicago lost again last night (to Oklahoma City, like everyone else in the league). Yet, the Bulls can clinch their spot in the play-in (and officially eliminate Toronto) with a victory tonight. The Bulls cover the -5.5 spread.

April 3 vs Portland Trailblazers

The Portland Trailblazers have lost their last four games in a row, falling four games back of the final play-in spot. Yet, all hope is not lost as they kick off a five-game stretch against sub .500 teams in Atlanta on April 1st.

Deni Avdija has been on an absolute tear of late. The fifth-year pro is averaging 23.4 points and 9.8 rebounds on 51% shooting and 80.7% from the line. Over a full season, Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns are the only players hitting those thresholds.

Just a quick reminder that the Jalen McDaniels trade to Sacramento last year continues to pay dividends. In addition to landing the 45th pick in last year’s draft (and landing Immanuel Quickley’s backup, Jamal Shead), the Raptors also nabbed Portland’s 2nd-round pick in this year’s draft, which should be around 39th. With a draft this deep, Toronto can continue fortifying the bench with more young talent.

Prediction

With the 9th and 10th spots still in play, and with Kevin Durant out at least one week for Phoenix, the Blazers are very much still in the hunt for the postseason. Portland’s ability to crash the glass and create extra opportunities should help the Blazers against Toronto’s thinned out frontline. Portland covers the -1.5 spread.

April 4 vs Detroit Pistons

JB Bickerstaff deserves to win Coach of the Year. The betting favourite, Kenny Atkinson, replaced Bickerstaff in Cleveland and turned the Cavaliers into title contenders. While Atkinson is deserving of the praise, especially transforming a 48-win team into one that was threatening to win 70, Bickerstaff has done something no other coach/team has ever accomplished.

The Detroit Pistons didn’t need an injection of superstar talent to fuel their meteoric rise. The superstar was already on the roster! Cade Cunningham has shown everyone why he was the #1 overall pick in a stacked draft with Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes, Franz Wagner, and Alperen Sengun. Cunningham is the leading candidate for Most Improved Player, averaging 25.7 points, 9.2 assists, and 6.1 rebounds.

Malik Beasley should also be considered for the MIP award, but ranks 2nd to Payton Pritchard in betting odds for Sixth Man of the Year. The nine-year veteran currently leads the NBA in three-point field goals made. Should he end the season on top, he’ll join James Harden (x3) and Klay Thompson (2023) as the only players NOT named Steph Curry to lead the league in made threes since 2013.

Prediction

If Detroit wins, they will sweep the season series against Toronto for the FOURTH time since 2018. The Pistons are two games behind Indiana for 4th place in the East. Think about that for a second. Over the last five seasons, Detroit’s win totals were 14, 17, 23, 20, and 20. Now think about all of the teams that are tanking this season. Philadelphia has 23 wins, and they’ve been tanking since the All-Star break. Detroit was regularly getting those win totals without trying to tank!

Incredible turnaround by the Pistons. Detroit covers the -4.5 spread.

April 6 @ Brooklyn Nets

The Brooklyn Nets have not looked good on the court this season, but that might change as early as next season. Sean Marks has done a good job of recouping draft assets in the wake of Brooklyn’s latest failed Big 3. In addition to their lottery pick, the Nets also own first-round picks this year from Milwaukee, Houston, and New York.

The Bucks pick is especially debilitating to a Milwaukee team that has an aging squad, devastating injury news with Damian Lillard (hope he can recover from the blood clots), and a ticking timeline with Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Regardless, it’s the Nets who will profit in this draft, wherever the Bucks finish in the standings.

Brooklyn still has an incentive to lose, despite having 4 first-round picks. With Philadelphia desperately trying to salvage their top-6 protected pick, they have (successfully?) barrelled down to 5th spot in the lottery standings. The Nets can damage their division rival’s lottery odds by re-taking the 5th spot and leaving the door open for only one team needing to leapfrog Philly in the lottery (ahem, Toronto) and forcing them to give the pick to Oklahoma City!

Prediction

Toronto’s 30-point win over the Nets last Wednesday was a larger margin of victory than 28 of the 29 other teams in the league have mustered against Brooklyn. The Los Angeles Clippers have defeated the Nets by 32 points....and 59 points! Toronto covers the -3.5 spread.

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Last Week’s Record: 2-2

Season Record: 31-44