The Meaning of Marine Le Pen’s Conviction
March 31 will go down as a terrible day for Marine Le Pen—and a good one for French democracy.
A French court on Monday found Le Pen and more than 20 officials from France’s far-right National Rally (RN) guilty in a sprawling embezzlement scheme that prosecutors said involved siphoning off €2.9 million ($3.1 million) in E.U. funds over a decade. Judges applied the French law as written: they barred the nine politicians involved from running for office from three to five years. And presiding judge Bénédicte de Perthus offered a clear explanation for why the court decided to apply the condition of automatic ineligibility to the plot’s ringleader Le Pen: the gravity of the case coupled with the RN’s longstanding refusal to take the allegations seriously suggested the far-right party was at risk of repeat offense.
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]The message was clear: Nobody is above the law, not even a popular presidential contender who stood at the gates of power.
The verdict significantly complicates Le Pen’s chances of standing in the 2027 presidential election, to say nothing of the four-year prison term she faces (two suspended and two that could be served under house arrest). But despite her claims of being targeted for misusing public funds, her case isn’t all that unique. Former President Jacques Chirac and former Prime Minister Alain Juppé were both found guilty for similar cases, while former President Nicolas Sarkozy has also been convicted for corruption and influence-peddling. And following new laws in 2016 and 2017, French courts have routinely barred politicians found guilty of corruption from running for office. Like everyone else, Le Pen retains the right to appeal.
The RN’s temper-tantrum—Le Pen stormed out of court before the full verdict was read—is rich from a party that likes to paint itself as tough on crime. And as many observers in France have noted, it smacks of hypocrisy. Back in 2013, Le Pen herself called for all politicians found guilty of misusing public funds to be barred from running for office for life.
But more generally, those complaining about the verdict should ask themselves the following: Is it a sign of democratic vitality to allow political corruption to go unpunished? Or should elected officials be held accountable when they are convicted for breaking the law?
The political fallout of Le Pen’s conviction will play out over the coming months. But at this stage, it seems fair to state the obvious. Le Pen’s conviction doesn’t necessarily reduce the chances of her party winning the next presidential election.
While Le Pen’s supporters from MAGA-world may think of her as the French Donald Trump, this view fundamentally misreads the source of the RN’s popularity. The party’s strength has less to do with a cult of personality around its leader than the mainstream appeal of its platform. It’s the product of ideological victories that are years in the making—and they won’t vanish without her.
Read More: Jordan Bardella Is the New Face of Europe’s Far Right
In fact, last year’s snap legislative elections were a prime demonstration of the RN’s ability to excel without Le Pen. Her name appeared only once on the ballot—in her parliamentary district in northern France—but that didn’t stop millions from endorsing the RN’s anti-establishment, anti-immigrant message across the country. Detailed opinion polls revealed the impressive scope of the party’s electorate, stretching from disaffected working-class voters to radicalized upper-middle-class conservatives ditching the mainstream right in droves.
Th RN’s mainstream success also flows from an increasingly sympathetic media landscape. Following in the footsteps of Rupert Murdoch, billionaire Vincent Bolloré has built a powerful media empire in service of a hard-right agenda. His properties like newspaper Le Journal du dimanche, radio network Europe 1, and TV channel CNews (now France’s most-watched 24-hour news network) pump out right-wing content on a daily basis, devoting outsized attention to crime, immigration, and Islam. And sure enough, journalists, panelists, and interview subjects at Bolloré outlets were quick to denounce the verdict.
Much like the Republican Party in the U.S., France’s RN also benefits from the weakness of its rivals. Politicians associated with President Emmanuel Macron will be fighting an uphill battle to overcome his broadly unpopular legacy, and the palpable anger at incumbents around the globe. Under Macron’s presidency, French authorities have failed to address voter concerns over the rising cost of living or meet the public’s relatively high expectations of state services. His top-down governing style has further complicated matters.
And despite joining forces last summer to win more seats in the National Assembly than any other coalition, France’s left-wing parties are once again divided over minor differences and competing strategies over the next presidential election. These divisions were even visible in their reactions to Le Pen’s conviction. While leaders of the Greens, Socialists, and Communists all applauded the ruling, Jean-Luc Mélenchon of left-populist La France Insoumise said he disagreed with the principle of courts preventing politicians from running for office.
Of course, the RN has another huge advantage. If Le Pen exhausts the appeals process and truly cannot run for the presidency in 2027, the party already has an obvious candidate-in-waiting in Jordan Bardella. Groomed to run for office, the 29-year president of the party can already count on support from the RN base. And if anything, the absence of the controversial Le Pen family name is a plus for the rest of the French electorate. While Bardella lacks experience, expertise, and mastery of the subjects at-hand, these may not be such flaws in today’s climate.
Ultimately, the RN will still need to be defeated politically one way or the other—with or without Le Pen. And this won’t be an easy task for its opponents. But the RN’s criticism of the verdict—and call for nationwide protests—is a reminder of what’s at stake in France. Like the Kremlin, Trump, and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán who’ve all rallied to the RN’s defense, the party shares a deep mistrust for the rule of law—and a healthy democratic society should be capable of rejecting it at the polls.