Le Pen conviction: How France’s courts keep sidelining the establishment’s political rivals

The case of the National Rally leader and presidential favorite, conveniently taken off future ballots, is part of a long pattern

Earlier this week, the anti-establishment French political leader whom all polls suggest would easily win the presidency, if the vote were held tomorrow, was barred from running for office for five years. How convenient.

Right-wing National Rally leader Marine Le Pen has been found guilty in a Paris court of embezzling European Union funds. Accused of enabling a system whereby aides hired to serve in Brussels ended up doing work for the party, she was also fined an sentenced to two years of home detention under electronic monitoring. The allegations against Le Pen, dating back to at least 2014, were so old that they could have qualified for a French pension. But now the verdict conveniently takes her out of the 2027 election cycle.

If you were looking for a foolproof way to supercharge support for Le Pen’s party, congratulations, French judiciary – you nailed it. There’s no better way to fire up a political movement than to turn its leader into a martyr of a state that looks to be meddling with citizens’ democratic options. Just ask Romania’s Câlin Georgescu, who was on his way to victory before getting politically kneecapped by the system: arrested, accused of foreign funding, then ultimately just dismissed for a paperwork technicality.

And what happened next? His replacement, George Simion, is now surging in the polls. Who could’ve seen that coming? (Spoiler: Everyone.)

Disqualifying candidates for crimes like corruption, fraud, and electoral violations wasn’t automatic in France – until Emmanuel Macron’s party conveniently made it so in 2017. Timing is everything: that law landed roughly three years after Brussels put Le Pen in its investigative crosshairs. Surely just a coincidence.

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The law’s biggest cheerleader? Macron ally and centrist leader, François Bayrou, who championed it – right up until he found himself accused of the exact same EU cash-grab scheme as Le Pen. Awkward. He lasted a whole month as Macron’s justice minister before getting booted. But don’t worry, he bounced back. Acquitted last year, he was later handpicked as Macron’s prime minister, despite not running for anything. You know who actually won that election? Le Pen’s party got the most votes, and the anti-establishment left won the most seats – neither of which entitles you to actually govern France anymore, apparently. Meanwhile, leftist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon is also under investigation for – you guessed it – precisely the same kind of disqualifying offense involving EU funding as Le Pen.

It’s no wonder Trump looks at this mess and sees himself in Le Pen’s situation. “She was banned for five years and she was the leading candidate,” Trump said. “That sounds like this country.” If Trump had been French, and convicted on some of his own election-related charges, like those in Georgia, he wouldn’t have been able to run for president, either. Hopefully the fashion capital of the world won’t set a trend with this one. Sure, convict someone. But let the people decide if the convict is still a better electoral option. Democracy means letting people choose – even if their top pick needs a parole officer instead of a campaign manager.

There’s a distinct pattern here: every time a candidate starts looking like a real threat to the establishment, the legal system suddenly finds a reason to hit the brakes. It’s almost as if France has an unofficial “Incumbent Protection Act”.

Remember Dominique Strauss-Kahn? Back in 2011, as IMF head, he was basically measuring the drapes at the Élysée Palace for his imminent move in. Then – bam! – a New York hotel maid accused him of sexual assault. Career over. And just to make sure, French authorities later charged him with pimping. Yes, pimping. He was acquitted, but good luck running for office when “IMF President” and “Accused Pimp” are both on your CV.

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Jump to 2017: François Fillon, a former prime minister, was leading the race to replace then president François Hollande. Then, right on cue, an investigative paper got a tip that he was allegedly paying his wife and kids to hold fake parliamentary aide jobs. His campaign imploded, and suddenly, here comes a relatively unknown political wonderboy named Emmanuel Macron to win it all. What luck!

Even the much-beloved former President Jacques Chirac couldn’t dodge the pattern. He was convicted in 2011 for a fake jobs embezzlement scheme dating back to his Paris mayoral days from 1977 to 1995. The only reason they didn’t nail him sooner? He had presidential immunity until 2007. They waited him out like a debt collector until his longtime nemesis, Nicolas Sarkozy, took office. To illustrate the contrast of worldview between the two presidents, Chirac kept France out of Uncle Sam’s regime-change-mobile in Iraq, and Sarkozy invaded Libya and was single-handedly responsible for reintegrating France back into NATO command after President Charles De Gaulle refused to do so in the interests of national sovereignty. By the time Chirac was actually convicted, he was no longer any kind of electoral threat to Sarkozy’s team, since he was denying Alzheimer’s rumors by that point more often than political wrongdoing.

Le Pen’s conviction has sparked immediate reactions from her political allies. Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán tweeted, “Je suis Marine,” in a nod to the “Je Suis Charlie” slogan that emerged after jihadists shot up the Parisian newsroom of the “Charlie Hebdo” satirical magazine. Dutch right-winger Geert Wilders called the sentence “incredibly harsh” and predicted that she’d win on appeal and win the French presidency. If she actually wins on appeal. And if that happens before 2027. And if the French legal system doesn’t suddenly “discover” another obstacle, with the EU’s help, as is often the case. Because if history tells us anything, it’s that French elections aren’t just won or lost at the ballot box – they’re also decided in courtrooms. And somehow, the ruling party never seems to be the one on trial.