Given the risks in Western Balkan energy policies and political instability, it is vital that this still-volatile region be integrated into this European peace project known as the EU—so that Europe may, once and for all, become a continent of lasting peace, and never again of war.

The Western Balkans—comprising Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, and Kosovo (which Serbia still does not recognize)—is home to approximately sixteen million people, less than half the population of Poland. Nearly thirty years after the armed conflicts in the region, visible progress remains elusive. This is despite the European Union (EU) being the most engaged external actor, as all countries except Kosovo either are EU members or hold candidate status for EU membership.

This raises a broader question: why hasn’t the EU pursued a collective accession of the Western Balkans—similar to its 2004 enlargement, when it admitted ten countries, or more precisely, nine and a half, given that only half of Cyprus was included?

The dissolution of the former Yugoslavia was a traumatic event for the entire region, leaving deep and lasting scars. Although the wars ended long ago, their consequences still persist. Yugoslavia was once a unified space, not only in political terms, but also economically, in terms of energy and security, and as a unified market. With the emergence of new states, this space became fragmented, burdened by the heavy legacy of war and a phenomenon often described as the “criminalization of politics and the politicization of crime.”

Alongside domestic actors, numerous foreign powers were involved in both the Yugoslav and post-Yugoslav crises. The United States played a key role in securing peace, as did the European Union, while Russia and China continue to exert significant influence in the region. The transition from socialism to capitalism, driven by sweeping privatization, gave rise to a new class of business elites—the so-called tycoons—who remain closely aligned with political power. While states retained ownership in the energy sector, there has been persistent pressure to privatize fully. In some cases, foreign telecom companies owned by their respective governments acquired national telecoms or other major firms in the region—transactions still labeled as “privatization.”

Of the former Yugoslav republics, only Slovenia and Croatia have joined both the European Union and NATO, while Montenegro and North Macedonia are members of NATO only. Russian influence remains particularly strong in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. The growing presence of Russia and China in the region can largely be attributed to the European Union’s hesitation to admit Western Balkan countries into its membership. If the EU aims to guarantee Europe’s security and defense, it will need both the full integration of the Western Balkans and active cooperation with Turkey.

The “Specter” of the Energy Community Hangs Over the Western Balkans

War-devastated economies and predatory privatization have led to significant social stratification. Political (in)stability is directly linked to both security and the economy. Particular attention should be paid to Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, where Russian influence remains dominant, in addition to non-transparent Chinese investments and influence.

The energy sector dates back to the era of socialist Yugoslavia and has seen little substantial investment since. While there are occasional electricity surpluses, these stem from the region’s underdeveloped economy. Were the region to experience real economic growth, it would face significant energy shortfalls. The Western Balkans remains heavily dependent on imports of oil, oil derivatives, and gas. Despite considerable hydroelectric potential, the energy system’s stability still relies on coal-fired power plants, which are under increasing scrutiny from the energy community, whose aim is to replace dirty energy with renewables. These efforts face resistance from local communities and the workers at existing facilities, as the current political leadership has shown no intention of seriously investing in new energy infrastructure based on decarbonization.

The energy community plays a key role in the Western Balkans’ transition toward a sustainable and competitive energy sector. With access to EU funding and international support, countries in the region have an opportunity to accelerate reforms and enhance their energy security by reducing dependence on fossil fuels. While member states of the energy community have formally committed to aligning their energy systems with EU regulations (the acquis communautaire), the reality tells a different story. In practice, obligations are readily taken on, but their implementation proceeds slowly, with difficulty, or is even halted altogether. Political hurdles and burdensome administrative procedures continue to delay meaningful energy reform.

Energy diversification is crucial for all countries in the region, particularly for Bosnia and Herzegovina, and is seen as important for reducing Russian influence. A major project in this regard is the construction of the “Southern Gas Interconnection pipeline, which would connect Bosnia and Herzegovina to the LNG terminal on Croatia’s Krk island.  This would significantly diminish Russia’s leverage, as the existing pipeline infrastructure provides access exclusively to Russian gas. In a parallel development, the United States signed an Agreement on Strategic Cooperation in Energy with Serbia last year. The agreement is expected to expand opportunities for U.S. companies to invest in Serbia’s energy sector, promote American business engagement, and further strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries.

Although fossil fuels continue to dominate the region’s energy mix and coal reserves remain substantial, countries continue to grapple with outdated energy infrastructure and inefficient power generation facilities. Renewable energy projects are still in their early stages, due to a lack of investment in hydropower, solar, and wind energy. As thermal power plants continue to serve as the backbone of energy stability—and the construction of new ones has largely been halted—there is growing consideration of nuclear power as a means of ensuring long-term reliability. Yet political instability and security threats hardly provide a conducive environment for the nuclear facilities.

The recent signing of a military alliance declaration between Croatia and Albania, both NATO members, along with Kosovo, is likely to fuel an arms race that is already underway between the region’s two rival countries—Serbia and Croatia—whose maximum military capacities remain constrained by the Dayton Peace Agreement, which ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina—a conflict in which both countries were involved. Rather than further militarization, regional governments would be better served by investing in economic development—and above all, in friendship, mutual trust, and lasting cooperation.

Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia: Key to (In)Stability in the Western Balkans

In the current context, ensuring regional energy connectivity and security is essential, yet the integration of energy systems remains sluggish. Political tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, triggered by the secessionist policies of Milorad Dodik—president of the Republika Srpska entity, which comprises forty-nine percent of the country’s territory—along with ongoing tensions between Serbia and Kosovo and large-scale student protests in Serbia, all continue to obstruct joint initiatives and hinder prospects for lasting peace and long-term stability.

The situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is cause for concern, as pro-Russian leader Milorad Dodik—often referred to as the “new Karadžić”—is pursuing the secession of Republika Srpska with the aim of creating a Balkan South Ossetia, echoing a familiar Russian geopolitical script. It is worth recalling that the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, sparked World War I. In that light, the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina should not be underestimated, and the deployment of additional EUFOR Althea troops underscores the growing security risks on the ground.

Serbia is currently experiencing mass student protests, triggered by the collapse of a canopy at the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024, which resulted in sixteen fatalities. Students issued four demands to the government, which claims to have met them—though the students maintain otherwise. The ongoing unrest in Serbia highlights the pressing need for the effective functioning of democratic institutions and the rule of law across the region, both of which are core requirements for EU accession.

The Western Balkans urgently needs to make meaningful progress toward EU membership, which requires the engagement of society as a whole, including civil society. Serbia is the largest country in the region, and the undemocratic removal of Aleksandar Vučić from power would create a security vacuum, potentially dragging the entire region back into a spiral of conflict reminiscent of thirty years ago. This time, however, such a conflict would not remain local, but could spread across Europe.

Given that the European Union was founded as a peace project, and that the Western Balkans was, not long ago, the scene of violent conflict, it is vital that this still-volatile region be integrated into this European peace project known as the EU—so that Europe may, once and for all, become a continent of lasting peace, and never again of war.

Dr. Zijad Bećirović is the Director of International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES), Ljubljana.

Image: Shutterstock/zedspider

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