'Trump is on the ballot': Wisconsin race could signal 'game over' if rural voters revolt
An election this week in Wisconsin should serve as a bellwether for next year's midterms and gauge whether President Donald Trump's policies have cost him support among rural voters, a report claimed Monday.
Spending in the state's Supreme Court election between conservative Brad Schimel and liberal Susan Crawford is expected to reach $100 million, making it the most expensive state judicial race in history.
And Republicans have been campaigning heavily in deep-red rural areas where voters have been threatened by tariffs on agricultural goods and affected by the Agriculture Department’s funding freeze, reported Politico.
“If [Schimel] doesn’t have the kind of support that President Trump had in rural Wisconsin, ball game over,” said Wisconsin-based former GOP adviser Brian Reisinger, who specializes in rural policy. “The strength of the rural vote, and whether it is going to be there for the conservative candidate in the Supreme Court race like it was for conservative candidates in 2024, is going to be the biggest, most determinative factor in this race.”
“[It's] the biggest signal that we’re going to get headed in the midterms," Reisinger added.
Elon Musk has invested heavily in the race – publicly handing out $1 million checks to two voters – and Trump appeared Thursday at a tele-town hall to boost Schimel. While the president remains plus-nine in favorability in the state's rural areas, his government-slashing billionaire adviser is minus-17.
“What we’re seeing here is kind of a replay of the last election cycle involving Trump,” said Republican strategist Craig Peterson. “Trump is on the ballot here, so is Elon Musk.”
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The Supreme Court race could have a major impact on the ability of farmers to access clean water with a pending case that could limit the Department of Natural Resources’ authority to enforce a spills law. Farmers have been rattled by some of the Trump administration's early policies.
“The biggest thing that I hear is the true uncertainty that we’re in,” said Darin Von Rude, president of the Wisconsin Farmers Union, whose PAC endorsed Schimel. “Not knowing what tomorrow is going to look like, (or) what’s going to come out of the White House or the USDA.”
Republicans have been hearing from worried farmers, but they remain confident that Schimel can beat the Democratic-backed Crawford.
“I’m not hearing people talk about abortion at all, and I’m not hearing them talk about the tariff issue,” said Peter Church, the GOP chair in rural Adams County. “These people are by and large red voters, and though the Supreme Court race is nonpartisan, they see that the red side is Brad Schimel.”