Musk's influence faces first big test in Wisconsin

The Wisconsin Supreme Court race Tuesday will put Elon Musk’s political and financial influence to the test after he poured millions of dollars in the race to support a conservative candidate.

Musk has spent $12 million through his America PAC to support Brad Schimel over liberal candidate Susan Crawford in a race that will determine the partisan tilt on the state Supreme Court. Building America’s Future, a group that has previously received funding from Musk, has added $4.7 million to the race. On top of that, he will speak in Wisconsin on Sunday night, days before voters are set to head to the polls.

The election has been seen as the first critical bellwether of President Trump’s second term, as Democratic energy appears to be growing on the grassroots level. But much of the attention has centered on Musk, whose role in the administration has received outsized attention and whose presence in the race has given fodder to Democrats supporting Crawford. 

“We're seeing a test of how much impact can one man have on a race in terms of bringing these kinds of resources to bear, which are gargantuan and which will kind of set a new benchmark that we've never really seen in terms of, you know, a person like him with groups like his spending in ways that they are,” said one Wisconsin GOP operative familiar with the strategy.

“It’s also true in the other direction with the Democrats, given how much they stake on having their messaging be about him,” he added.

Democratic donors have also opened their pockets in the race, including most notably George Soros and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, underscoring the degree to which both sides see the election as critical.

It’s also not the only race on Tuesday Musk has gotten involved in. 

In Florida, he is supporting GOP candidates Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine, who are running to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and White House national security adviser Mike Waltz, respectively, in the House. Both seats are Republican-leaning and the party expects to keep them, though some members of the party are warning it could be a closer-than-expected race for Fine in Florida’s 6th Congressional District.

But it’s the Wisconsin race that is seen as one of the first major tests for both parties. Democrats have looked to harness anger over Musk as a way to drive out their voters. And they’ve argued that Musk, whose company has pending litigation over establishing Tesla dealerships in the state, stands to benefit if Schimel wins — particularly if the litigation winds up before the state’s high court.

“First of all, in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, this is very troubling,” Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) told The Hill. “He has a suit in the state of Wisconsin that could make its way up to the Supreme Court, and buying favor is obviously corrupt.”

Schimel has previously said he’s looking for the support of Wisconsin voters and has no control over what outside groups do.

Republicans, meanwhile, have suggested Democrats are being hypocritical about Musk’s involvement, noting that liberals like Pritzker and Soros are also wading into the race.

The GOP is applauding Musk’s contributions in the spring races.

“I think if I was in an election, I would appreciate all contributions,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) told The Hill.

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who is running for Florida governor, called Musk’s involvement “a great thing.”

Experts on both sides caution not to read too much into what Tuesday’s results might mean regarding Musk’s influence, noting there’s a number of factors at play that could tilt the results one way or another.

Asked if the Crawford campaign saw the race as a bellwether for Musk and his influence, consultant Sam Roecker, who’s working on the campaign, said it’s “a tough question to answer,” acknowledging the sheer amount of money Musk is spending.

“On the other hand, though, I mean, I do think it's important to point out that, you know, the bulk of our paid advertising has not been about Elon Musk,” Roecker said.

There have been indications of Musk’s slipping popularity among voters amid the ongoing federal cuts under his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). An NBC News poll released earlier this month found that 51 percent of voters said they viewed Musk negatively while 39 percent said they viewed him positively. A separate Marquette University Law School poll showed 53 percent of registered voters in Wisconsin viewed Musk unfavorably while 41 percent said they viewed him favorably.

There have also been signs of voter discontent with Musk in recent town halls Democrats have held in GOP districts, forcing the party’s lawmakers to defend Musk’s role spearheading DOGE.

Republicans push back on the criticism Musk is facing at town halls, arguing much of the backlash is manufactured by Democrats.

“You mean in the town halls where you have groups who are pushing people to town halls?” Donalds said. “We still have Democrats in Republican districts.”

Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) acknowledged Musk’s popularity but warned that voters in states where he is spending money may not be aware of the extent of his involvement.

“The super PAC doesn’t say Elon Musk super PAC. It says America super PAC,” said Lee, who is introducing legislation banning super PACs by placing a contribution limit on donations.

“By the time people actually realize who’s putting the money in, it’s almost always too late. The damage has already been done,” she continued.

Some Republicans argue that Musk’s involvement in the Wisconsin race is not the best test case for his involvement, given the expected low turnout that special, off-year elections usually bring in.

“This is a race Democrats should win and if they don’t, it’s a huge embarrassment,” said one Republican official working on the race.

The special elections in Florida’s 1st and 6th districts are also in their own categories. The 1st Congressional District is the most conservative in the state and expected to be a cakewalk for Republicans. The 6th District is considered slightly more competitive, but some Republicans have pointed to Fine as a weak candidate while Democrats have insisted the race is more about narrowing the margins in a Trump district.

One strategist who’s done work in a dozen states suggested Musk could be helping pave the way for other individuals to get involved in elections.

“We've seen this with the way that a lot of those big tech companies came around after Trump was elected, like, I think Elon is going to set a precedent that like, ‘Hey, if you want to be good with the president, with the MAGA movement, open up your wallet, too,’” the strategist said.