Marin housing production lags state’s expectation

Marin County is going to need to create housing at a faster pace if it is going to meet the target the state has set, according to county planning officials.

Planners conveyed the message Tuesday while briefing supervisors on an annual report they are submitting to the state Department of Housing and Community Development.

The county must report its progress each year toward fostering the number of new homes it has been assigned. If the county fails to make adequate progress toward meeting the state’s target by 2027, it could be penalized.

Every eight years, the state housing department projects how many more homes will be needed in the Bay Area to accommodate expected population and job growth.

The Association of Bay Area Governments then decides how many of those homes to assign to each county and municipality in the region. Local jurisdictions are required to adjust their zoning laws to make the creation of that housing possible.

Marin was assigned 185 dwellings during the previous eight-year cycle and 773 the cycle before that. But during the cycle from 2023 to 2031, it is expected to create 3,569 dwellings in the unincorporated areas.

In addition, the state has mandated that a specific number of those residences fall into certain income categories: 1,100 for very-low-income households, 634 for low-income households, 512 for moderate-income households and 1,323 for above-moderate-income households.

For example, the county considers a very low income to be $88,150 a year for a three-person household, while above moderate would be $201,550.

Planners told supervisors on Tuesday that since January 2023, the county has issued building permits for 226 residences. That includes 159 in 2023 and 67 last year.

Of the 67 last year, 13 were priced for households with very low incomes, 12 for low incomes, 14 for moderate incomes and 28 with above moderate incomes.

Planners said 48 of the building permits last year were for accessory dwelling units, while the remaining 19 were single-unit residences. The state will allow the county to count only 280 accessory dwelling units toward its 3,569-residence mandate.

“As of today, we have permitted 105 ADUs, so that leaves 175 remaining,” planner Aline Tanielian told supervisors.

Supervisor Stephanie Moulton-Peters asked at what rate the county needs to be producing new residences to meet the state’s requirement.

“If we were to consider linear development and making that final goal, we would need to permit about 446 units a year,” Tanielian said.

If Marin has failed to permit 1,815 new residences by 2027 — half of its assigned total — it could be subject to a state law that provides for ministerial approval of all multifamily housing applications that meet certain requirements.

“I’m not sure how much difference it would make in Marin County,” Sarah Jones, the director of the Marin County Community Development Agency, said Wednesday. “Most of our housing element sites already have ministerial approval if you submit something that’s consistent with the zoning.”

Jones told supervisors on Tuesday that unlike many other counties, Marin rezoned a number of properties to facilitate development before it submitted its housing element to the state for approval.

The housing element included zoning changes to permit 5,197 new residences on 148 sites in unincorporated areas by 2030. The state encouraged the county to identify additional sites in case some residences don’t materialize.

All the housing element sites are developable with ministerial review, which means they are not subject to the California Environmental Quality Act or denial by local elected bodies.

“Many, many other jurisdictions are still involved in considering the rezoning that is following along from their housing elements,” Jones said, “whereas we have a significant number of our sites with applications submitted.”

“The numbers aren’t showing up yet in the building permits because there are a lot of steps from those initial conversations and somebody seeing how they can take advantage of this zoning to actually produce housing,” Jones told supervisors. “But this is a very positive report overall.”

During a budget workshop last month, Jones told supervisors that the county has more than 422 approved dwellings in its development pipeline and another 742 under review. The estimate included projects in various stages, not just ones that had been issued a building permit.

“Some of those entitlements were issued more than five years ago, but for whatever reason the project hasn’t yet been completed,” Jones said.

Planners said Tuesday that the county received 139 applications to build a total of 472 residences during 2024. They said higher interest rates and other financial challenges to building in Marin contributed to the much lower number of dwellings issued building permits.

“So much of it, particularly in this economic environment, is beyond what the county can control,” Supervisor Brian Colbert said. “So many of these permits are just not going to pan out because of other circumstances.”