UFC Mexico predictions
Brandon Moreno is on the long road back to another shot at the UFC flyweight title.
He’s reigned over the division twice and that puts a large target on Moreno’s back, one Steve Erceg aims to strike in Saturday’s UFC Mexico main event. By any measure, Moreno is still one of the five best fighters in the world competing at 125 pounds, but circumstances have not been in his favor as of late.
First, he lost a split decision to nemesis Alexandre Pantoja, a result that could have gone either way and ended his second championship run. Then, he lost a split decision to Brandon Royval, a result that could have gone either way and ended his hopes of facing Pantoja again (for now). And even though he rebounded with a win over Amir Albazi in his most recent outing, that was always a matchup Moreno had more to lose than to gain from.
So once again, Moreno is tasked with defending his spot against a would-be contender, this time Erceg, a one-time title challenger also seeking another championship shot. Erceg is coming off a knockout loss to Kai Kara-France and could possibly be fighting with even more determination—and desperation—than Moreno.
High-level flyweight fights are always buzzing, but Saturday’s comes with an added layer of pressure and a lively Mexican crowd eager to push Moreno back to glory.
What: UFC Mexico
Where: Arena CDMX in Mexico City
When: Saturday, March 29. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN 2 and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN2 and ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Brandon Moreno (4) vs. Steve Erceg (13)
0-2-1.
0-7.
The first number? Brandon Moreno’s record fighting in Mexico City.
The second number? My record picking UFC Fight Night main events in 2025.
In other words? We’re both due.
That’s a slightly reductive way of looking at things, so let’s take a glance at the actual style matchup. Moreno uses his incredible speed and skill to pressure every opponent he faces and he’ll do the same with a hot crowd behind him. Steve Erceg is not the type to be overwhelmed, so expect him to rely on his technical boxing and sharp footwork to keep him out of danger.
Erceg’s grappling could be a factor here as well and any exchanges between him and Moreno will lead to some highly entertaining scrambles. I’ll always lean towards Moreno in these situations because he’s proven time and time again he will not be controlled on the ground. This could become a war of attrition after the first couple of rounds.
It’s a war Moreno will win. I like him to eventually catch Erceg on the feet and finish with ground-and-pound late in the third or early in the fourth.
Pick: Moreno
Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober
Heading into his 25th UFC appearance (bravo!), Drew Dober has carved out a nice niche for himself as a surefire action fighter capable of flirting with top 15 greatness. Is it time to pass the torch to the next generation of lightweight entertainers?
You could do a lot worse than Manuel Torres if you were to pick a fan favorite fighter of the future. Torres uses his lanky frame beautifully to attack from a variety of angles and with deadly precision. He rarely fails to capitalize on an opportunity when he smells blood.
There will be plenty of opportunities for both fighters to land a knockout punch in this one. Dober, for all of his technical shortcomings, has always had power as the great equalizer, and if he touches Torres’ chin, Torres will go down as so many others have. It’s all about who scores first.
Call it lazy, but I’ll go with the younger, less shopworn Torres to beat Dober to the punch. Dober will threaten early, but once Torres finds his timing, a surgical strike will sneak through and set Dober up for a great fall.
Pick: Torres
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer
Kelvin Gastelum, here to stay at middleweight. That’s good news. Now he has to deal with intriguing finisher Joe Pyfer.
It’s difficult to get a proper gauge of just how good Pyfer actually he is. His lone UFC loss is to veteran Jack Hermansson, so there’s no shame in that. He’s proven to be a cut above the middle of the middleweight pack, and now he gets another shot to prove he’s a future contender.
Size and athleticism are in Pyfer’s favor here. It’s entirely possible he hosses Gastelum to the ground and wears him down with wrestling, setting the one-time interim title challenger up for a submission as his resolve fades. Gastelum is a good wrestler in his own right, but there are holes in his takedown defense.
Pyfer may also want to slug it out with Gastelum. That’s where I see problems arising. Sixteen years into his pro fighting career, Gastelum still has a rock-solid chin, and Pyfer will gas out early if he attempts to bulldoze Gastelum. Add in the elevation of Mexico City and a suspect gas tank could be Pyfer’s undoing.
That has to be the gameplan for Gastelum and his team. Drag Pyfer into deep waters and let him drown in his own perspiration until it feels like the clock is ticking backwards in Round 3. If Pyfer isn’t prepared for that possibility, he could stumble hard.
Gastelum by decision.
Pick: Gastelum
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Vince Morales
World, say goodbye to 19-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. and get ready for the 20-year-old takeover.
Yes, das wunderkind is a man now, not quite old enough to drink, but more than old enough to continue a cagefighting career that has seen him win nine of his first 10 fights, including his past three. Next up for Rosas is Vince Morales, a seasoned veteran known for his stick-to-itiveness if nothing else.
This is meant to be a layup for the still-maturing Rosas and, with respect to the always game Morales, that’s exactly how this should play out. Rosas’ speed, athleticism, and wrestling are exactly the kind of attributes that have typically spelled trouble for Morales. “Vandetta” has the skills to put Rosas in danger, but the plucky bantamweight should be able to power through and grind Morales down.
He could finish late, but I’m expecting Rosas to have to work for three rounds to earn the win.
Pick: Rosas Jr.
David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira
Saimon Oliveira hasn’t fought in over two years, so he better hope his cardio is up to snuff because David Martinez is going to make him move.
Martinez, a 2024 Contender Series signing, is all about agility and angles. He’ll invite Oliveira to chase him, mixing in tight defense with smart counters before letting his hands loose. His pace will increase as the bout progresses, assuming it doesn’t end in Round 1.
It’s on Oliveira to mix the martial arts to throw Martinez off his rhythm, but I don’t know how effective the Brazilian’s wrestling will be in this matchup. Martinez keeps his hips so far back at all times, Oliveira will waste a tremendous amount of energy if he can’t set up his takedowns effectively.
I see Oliveira fighting with a sense of urgency that will lead to his doom as Martinez susses out his strategy early and KOs him in the opening round.
Pick: Martinez
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas
Ronaldo Rodriguez is a classic coiled-spring fighter. He’s ready to unleash offense at any moment, and when he does, it comes in the form of unpredictable bursts of wrestling and wild swings in the standup. He also has a tendency to wait too long to get going, which has led to some shaky starts to his UFC fights.
Those defensive lapses could prove costly against Kevin Borjas, a talented Contender Series signing who has struggled through some tough matchups. He’ll happily lead the dance if Rodriguez lets him, taking advantage of the space to attack with his free-wheeling striking style.
I’m torn here, because Rodriguez should be able to grapple his way to a victory if the situation calls for it, but I’ve also seen him eat so many clean shots and get away with it on sheer toughness. That’s not a sustainable strategy and Borjas could be the one to teach him a harsh lesson.
Borjas by knockout.
Pick: Borjas
Preliminaries
Edgar Chairez def. CJ Vergara
Ateba Gautier def. Jose Daniel Medina
Christian Rodriguez def. Melquizael Costa
Loopy Godinez (11) def. Julia Polastri
Rafa Garcia def. Vinc Pichel