UFC Mexico gambling preview: Best bets for Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
The UFC is heading back to Mexico!
On Saturday, the latest UFC Mexico City card takes place from Arena CDMX in Mexico City, headlined by a flyweight scrap between former two-time champion Brandon Moreno and former title challenger Steve Erceg. But before that, we’ve got 12 other fights to whet our whistles, so let’s dive right into the best picks and plays this weekend.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Single Plays
Kelvin Gastelum (+240)
Gastelum takes on Joe Pyfer in the featured main card fight this weekend, and this number has already plummeted from where it was. Earlier this week you could find Gastelum at +400 in some places, but the smart money stopped that well enough. Still, this is a big underdog price for a guy who has a real shot at winning on Saturday. Pyfer was supposed to be middleweight’s next big thing until he ran into Jack Hermansson, who didn’t simply fall over in the face of Pyfer’s physicality. That fight revealed Pyfer still has a lot of growing to do, and Gastelum is exactly the sort of opponent who will punish him if he hasn’t. Gastelum has an unbreakable chin, and he keeps coming after an opponent even when he’s down. That’s well worth a shot given the price.
Prop Bets
Brandon Moreno to Win & Round 2 to Start (-185)
Mixing things up a little on this one because I wanted to get slightly better odds than the Moreno straight action at -250. That line isn’t terrible, but we can squeeze a little more juice out of it with this prop bet.
I feel really good about Moreno beating Erceg on Saturday as he’s the more dynamic and accomplished fighter. Erceg has great boxing but his defensive wrestling isn’t the strongest, and Moreno has a more varied striking game plus a granite chin. I simply think he brings too many weapons against Erceg to lose. But I’m also not sure how he gets it done, because he’s so well-rounded. My gut says a submission may happen but instead, I’m taking this line because Moreno should win and he only has two first-round finishes in the UFC and none since 2020.
Raul Rosas Jr. by Points (+105)
Rosas Jr. is a big favorite against Vince Morales, and it’s obvious why: apart from getting the UFC push, Rosas is legitimately talented and Morales is ... less so. Rosas should have no big issue scoring takedowns and working his grappling game to get the win. That being said, Morales hasn’t been submitted since 2018, and he’s fought some very good opponents. His durability means this probably goes to the scorecards.
Loopy Godinez by Points (-155)
Godinez takes on Julia Polastri on the prelims on Saturday, and I’ll be shocked if she doesn’t win. Godinez is on a two-fight losing streak but those losses came to Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern, two of the best women on the planet. Polastri, meanwhile, won a split decision over Cory McKenna in her most recent fight. Godinez brings a lot of pressure and can mix in the grappling too much for Polastri to win, but she’s not a finisher so this will go to the cards.
Parlay
After hitting a big Gimmick Parlay last weekend (Chris Duncan Parlay is now 2-0), we’re going right back to the well on Saturday. No, not with a Rodriguez parlay, but with a Round 1 Prospect Parlay as Saturday features two fighters I graded as elite prospects coming off the most recent season of Contender Series.
David Martinez (-400)
Martinez takes on Saimon Oliveira in his promotional debut on Saturday and this is an obvious set-up fight for “Black Spartan.” Oliveira is 0-2 in the UFC and hasn’t fought in two years, while Martinez is already a polished product, ready-made to start competing with high-level opposition. The former Combate champion should have himself a showcase on Saturday.
Ateba Gautier (-430)
Saturday is also Gautier’s UFC debut as he takes on Jose Daniel Medina on the prelims in what is also a set-up fight. While Martinez is well-rounded and polished, Gautier is a physical specimen who I compared to Melvin Manhoef. Gautier needs some development, but Medina is the right opponent to let him get just that while also not providing a serious risk of setback.
Parlay these two bets together for -185 odds.
Wrap Up
Hot dayum we did it! Been waiting for a big weekend all year and we finally had one with UFC London. We missed on the main event (badly, I might add) but smashed everything else, including some big underdog numbers in there. Let’s hope we can keep things rolling for UFC Mexico.
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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