Steady rain and tiny early
Hello Friends,
This morning a massive rain-bearing trough was still mostly inland as early risers arrived at the beach for a look. At Dee Why it was too small to really be rideable. The wind was calm as of 0630 and the 0400 data from the MHL buoy was showing 1.5 metres of 6-second east wind bump dominating the swell picture. But check out the Marine forecast below and you can see that by this afternoon the wind’ll be coming strongly from the NE and the seas and swell will both be rising.
By tomorrow the rain’s expected to dial back to showers (the forecast is for 0-7mm on Sunday, whereas today could easily see that much in an hour or two). Wind will be 20-30 kts from the westerly quarters while a metre or so of south swell in the morning will build to be 2-4 metres by lunch time as it takes over from a 2ish metre NE swell. It may be rideable, in the am before the wind gets to full strength, but it definitely won’t be suitable for beginners. Watch and study the conditions before you go out!
From this morning’s swell models, it looks as though the generally straight south swell will build through Monday, peak on Wednesday in the 4-6 metre range and then gradually fade back to the metre-ish range as we head into next weekend. It’s been a long time since we saw the variables align for a week of solid swell.
Go well with your Saturday everyone!
Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Saturday 29 March 2025.
Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea and a trough over the inland will cause northeasterly winds to increase today as the trough moves east. Later today and during Sunday a low pressure system within the trough is forecast to deepen over the southern and central coast, bringing vigorous south to southeasterly winds and large waves. This system is expected to gradually move southeast early next week.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Gale Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
- Winds
- Northeasterly 20 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots offshore in the late morning and early afternoon.
- Seas
- 1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
- Swell
- Easterly around 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres around midday, then increasing to 2 metres by early evening.
- Weather
- Cloudy. 95% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday 30 March
Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
- Winds
- North to northwesterly 20 to 30 knots shifting southwesterly 25 to 35 knots during the morning.
- Seas
- 2 to 3 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres during the morning.
- 1st Swell
- Southerly below 1 metre, tending southwesterly 1 to 2 metres during the morning, then tending southerly 2 to 4 metres around midday.
- 2nd Swell
- Northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday, then increasing to 2.5 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
- Weather
- Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Monday 31 March
- Winds
- Southwesterly 25 to 40 knots.
- Seas
- 3 to 4 metres.
- Swell
- Southerly 4 metres, increasing to 4 to 6 metres during the afternoon.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.