Mailbag: Why the Pac-12 expansion calculation depends on media rights, Stanford’s mess, Whittingham’s place of honor and more
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Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
The Pac-12 is telling us that none of the available schools will move the media rights needle, so what’s the reason for waiting to add a team to become compliant with NCAA regulations? Will the dollars impact the teams they add? The Mountain West expanded first, so there’s precedent for doing it that way. — @brycetacoma
The Mountain West was operating from a position of weakness, having been raided and fighting for survival, while the Pac-12 is operating from a position of (relative) strength with its core intact for the next media rights cycle. Those differing dynamics account for the contrasting strategies since September.
In terms of the Pac-12’s broad strategy, it’s critical to recognize that the media rights negotiations and the membership question are, to a large extent, unfolding together.
The conference has a list of schools under consideration. It’s a matter of wrapping up expansion once the media rights deal is secure, not starting from scratch.
Another key point: There are some expansion scenarios that would increase the media value more than others.
For instance, adding Memphis, Tulane and South Florida would generate more media dollars than only adding Texas State. But none of the scenarios will change the valuation in a meaningful way. The delta is a few hundred thousand dollars annually, not a few million.
Yes, the Pac-12 is following the same misguided strategy that led to its demise a few years ago. Had the conference added San Diego State and SMU immediately after USC and UCLA departed, it could very well be intact today.
But the circumstances are wildly different this time, and prioritizing the media deal over membership makes sense.
Why? Because the most important piece to the survive-and-thrive equation isn’t the TV dollars; it’s the TV exposure.
The rebuilt Pac-12 must partner with a linear TV network for its football product. Whether that’s The CW or ESPN or Fox or Turner, exposure is everything over the second half of the decade as conferences compete for College Football Playoff access and schools audition for the sport’s Great Restructuring in the 2030s.
Also, the media valuation could impact which schools are pursued. Some targets would demand full-share status; others would not. If the media deal lands on the low end of projections, the conference might opt to offer partial shares, thereby creating more dollars for the core eight.
Some basic math illustrates the point:
Let’s imagine the Pac-12 agrees to a media deal with multiple partners for $75 million annually, which is on the low end of the target range, according to sources.
Split equally for nine schools, that’s $8.3 million per campus per year. (Gonzaga receives a full share even though it does not compete in football.)
But if Texas State enters the conference as a quarter-share member, the Bobcats would receive $2.1 million and the remaining schools would split the rest. That’s an additional $775,000 per year — not insignificant.
Again, the media valuation is one component. In addition to linear exposure, the conference must view everything through the lens of the College Football Playoff. Which school, or combination of schools, best positions the Pac-12 to earn the automatic bid reserved for the top team outside the Power Four?
At a certain level, all the issues addressed here (and more) are interconnected.
Regarding Pac-12 expansion: Is there a “3” with an eye toward other non-football schools? For example, Saint Mary’s has plenty of basketball success and the Bay Area market. Another option would be Seattle, which is also in a major market not represented in the conference. — Josh F
Speaking of issues the Pac-12 must address, here’s yet another: The degree to which it should focus on basketball, both with media rights and membership.
Here’s where we enter the realm of cognitive dissonance:
The rebuilt Pac-12 should be a very good basketball conference — better on the court, perhaps, than on the field (thanks largely to Gonzaga’s presence). What’s more, there are more quality basketball schools than football schools potentially available in expansion scenarios.
With that framing, focusing on basketball makes sense. Why not add one school in all sports, to meet the requirements, and three non-football schools for a total of 12 basketball programs?
There’s one hurdle, and it’s significant. Basketball is responsible for just 20 cents of every media rights dollar, and an industry source noted recently that the figure could, in fact, be closer to 15 cents.
The only non-football school that pays for itself is already committed (Gonzaga). We aren’t convinced the basketball-centric schools (Saint Mary’s, Seattle and even Grand Canyon) are worthwhile at reduced revenue shares.
The discrepancy in valuation between football and basketball is enormous.
What is the latest on the Pac-12/Mountain West lawsuit? — @Jimmy0726
That depends on how closely you have been following the situation.
The Pac-12 and Mountain West filed a joint motion in the Northern District of California to stay the case March 14, approximately two weeks before U.S. Magistrate Judge Susan van Keulen was to hear the Mountain West’s motion to dismiss. (Our sources believe she would have allowed the case to continue.)
There have been no filings since then as the sides discuss mediation.
The Pac-12 issued the following statement at the time of the motion to stay:
“To safeguard the well-being and interests of our student-athletes, on September 24, 2024, the Pac-12 Conference initiated legal action against the Mountain West Conference for imposing unlawful ‘Poaching Penalties’ on the conference.
“Today, at the request of the Mountain West Conference, the Pac-12 has agreed to file a mutual 60-day order to stay in the case to discuss mediation options. It is important to state that we are in the early stages; no mediation dates have been set, and mediation is still uncertain.
“The Pac-12 remains confident in our position that the Poaching Penalty will be declared invalid and is committed to defending our stance.”
And remember, there are two cases unfolding simultaneously, with the Mountain West as the defendant in both: The Pac-12’s poaching penalty lawsuit and the exit fee case filed by Utah State, Colorado State and Boise State.
They will be addressed in totality by mediation, if all sides commit to solving the disputes outside the courtrooms.
In mailbag questions about the impact of non-football travel on Pac-12 legacy schools in the Big Ten, why do you constantly ignore the success of the women’s basketball teams from USC and UCLA? —John
Fair question, and we can offer a two-part response:
— The vast majority of questions about travel are focused on football and men’s basketball.
— The UCLA and USC women’s basketball teams are outliers.
They have overwhelming talent and, as a result, are poor reflections of the competitive challenges we foresee over time in Los Angeles and along the West Coast.
Perhaps Lincoln Riley (USC football) and Mick Cronin (UCLA basketball) will reach that point in the near future. Their programs have the requisite tradition and recruiting prowess. But we’ll believe it, and address it, when we see it.
Andrew Luck seemed to support Troy Taylor during Stanford’s Pro Day last week. Do we presume he had prior knowledge of the two investigations into Taylor? If so, should we question his judgment after the about-face when the ESPN story broke? — @Brian_Wood45
Stanford’s handling of the situation absolutely deserves scrutiny, and that includes Luck’s role, but let’s start broadly.
Luck was hired in late November. We don’t know what he knew about the two investigations into Taylor’s conduct during discussions with president Jonathan Levin and what he learned after taking the role.
His session with the media occurred March 20, hours before ESPN’s report broke. Did he know, while answering questions, that the story was about to be published?
It’s also possible Luck wanted to make a change before ESPN’s article but was overruled by Levin and/or university attorneys. We simply don’t know.
But it’s clear he and the university were swayed more by optics than substance. Frankly, Stanford’s handling of the matter is embarrassing.
Let’s also remember that Luck is a retired football player, not an experienced manager of people and departments. Also, the Cardinal currently lacks an athletic director.
It’s a giant, stinkin’ mess of Stanford’s own making.
The makeup of the Sweet 16, with so many teams from the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12, is more evidence that the NCAA is broken. The western teams should split and form a new conference with new rules, money and a tournament. Something like the NFL/AFL model. — @BonitaVista1971
The central problem with your premise is that it would not be comparable to the NFL and AFL co-existence in the pre-merger era.
It would be more like the NFL and the CFL.
The western half of the country doesn’t have nearly as many schools or championships as the eastern.
It has precious few major brands in football and men’s basketball.
It lacks the resources and media dollars.
It would instantly be relegated to a secondary existence.
After all, the breakup of the Pac-12 began with USC and UCLA departing for the Big Ten — and all the revenue and media exposure the conference had to offer.
Where will Kyle Whittingham rank on the list of all-time college football coaches? — @utahfootballgm
It’s difficult, if not impossible, to make the case Whittingham belongs on a short (or mid-sized) list of the best coaches in history. Not without a national title or a major bowl win — much less without multiple major bowl wins.
Is he one of the top 50? Maybe. We would have to take a deep dive. The sport is 150-something years old and, for the bulk of that time, has featured hundreds of teams. The candidate pool is hundreds of coaches deep.
But Whittingham has been one of the elite coaches for the past decade if judgement is based on maximizing a program’s resources, winning consistently and exceeding the historical standard for success.
He built on Urban Meyer’s foundation and won on the big stage, which helped the Utes gain admission to the Pac-12.
He then elevated the program to an unprecedented tier with back-to-back conference titles and Rose Bowl bids and regular finishes in the top 25.
In addition to the quantifiable standards, Whittingham’s teams just look extremely well-coached. The Utes have been a model for numerous programs over the years.
In our estimation, only Chris Petersen has commanded the level of respect given to Whittingham over the years (among coaches in the western half of the country).
And eventually, Whittingham, like Petersen, will be elected into the Hall of Fame.
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