MANILA, Philippines – Incumbent Manila Mayor Honey Lacuna, the first woman mayor of the city, has an uphill climb getting re-elected to a second term as chief executive of the Philippines’ capital city, if elections were held today.  

OCTA Research and Development Incorporated (OCTA Research) confirmed on Friday, March 28, conducting an early March survey, which showed Lacuna’s former ally, ex-Manila mayor and defeated 2022 presidential candidate Isko Moreno, ahead by 52-percentage points. 

The survey, conducted from March 2 to 6 or over two months before the May 12 elections, had Moreno on top with 67% of the voters of Manila picking him over congressman Sam “SV” Verzosa Jr. (16%), and Lacuna (15%) of the Asenso Manileño local party.

The wealthy Verzosa, co-founder of marketing firm, Frontrow Enterprise, is currently an incumbent representative of party-list Tutok To Win. 

OCTA Research president Ranjit Rye verified to media organizations the leaked OCTA survey commissioned by Robert Oca of the Associated Workers Union. 

Moreno, 50, and Lacuna, 59, were political allies until the actor-TV host decided in October 2024 to run again for mayor in the 2025 elections, reneging on a promise to support the physician in her re-election bid. Lacuna’s late father, Danilo, a former Manila vice mayor, was Moreno’s political mentor.

In the OCTA Research survey, Moreno dominated all six districts of Manila, especially in Tondo, where he was born and where he grew up. He had a more-than-50-percentage-point lead over Verzosa and Lacuna in the first and second districts which cover Tondo, home to many urban poor families of Manila.

The battle was a bit more competitive in Manila’s third district, also known as its commercial center: Binondo (Manila’s Chinatown), Quiapo, Sta. Cruz, and San Nicolas. Moreno was supported in the third district by 53%, followed by Lacuna with 23%, and Verzosa with 21%. It’s still a commanding double-digit lead of 30-percentage points for Moreno.

An over-50-point lead is difficult to overcome in most cases, especially since the local campaign, which started on Friday, is only 45 days. 

Moreno’s running mate this time is journalist Chi Atienza, a daughter of former Manila mayor Jose Atienza. 

Moreno was the surprise winner in the 2019 mayoral race, defeating fellow actor and former president Joseph Estrada, then the incumbent mayor of Manila, who was seeking re-election. Lacuna, who was then Moreno’s running mate, also defeated Congressman Amado Bagatsing, Estrada’s running mate. (READ: Isko Moreno on Erap: ‘May pagsikat, may paglubog’)

The folksy Moreno had a high-profile first term as mayor from 2019 to 2022 as he launched cleanliness and infrastructure projects in a decaying city, prompting many to take note of his potential for higher office. He also communicated well with his constituents via his Facebook account, showing him live at work in the city even at night. 

He used the political gains from that brief three-year term as mayor to launch an ambitious presidential bid by running under reformist party, Aksyon Demokratiko. Many political analysts then said it was too early to gun for the presidency.

Moreno lost badly in the 2022 presidential polls that was dominated by Uniteam standard bearer Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the late dictator Ferdinand E. Marcos. He even lost to Marcos Jr. in the city of Manila, placing only second in his birth place and ending up fourth overall in the presidential race. (READ: How Isko Moreno’s promising candidacy petered out)

After that bitter loss, Moreno returned to his showbusiness roots by hosting the long-running noon show Eat Bulaga! on the country’s leading broadcast station, GMA Network. The show was later renamed by its block-time producer Television and Production Exponents Incorported (TAPE) as Tahanang Pinakamasaya after TAPE lost a trademark dispute to Eat Bulaga creator Joey de Leon. The Moreno-led show, however, was short-lived as it failed to generate enough advertising revenues. 

Moreno also ventured into the restaurant business by setting up Ugbo in upscale Bonifacio Global City, Taguig, which sells simple Tondo food such as Tumbong Soup (pig’s intestines) and Dila Asado (pork’s tongue). The restaurant turned a year old last February. 

Manila faced a major garbage problem starting January 2025, following a dispute between the city government and garbage collector Leonel Waste Management. Lacuna cried sabotage and cited Leonel’s alleged close ties to Moreno. 

On Friday, Moreno vowed to clean up the city if he wins and resume his health and welfare projects, saying, “Together, we can make Manila great again!” He also indicated he would be not be just a one-term mayor this time around. – Rappler.com