Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg prediction, pick: Can ex-champ get first UFC win on home soil?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 64 main event between former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno and ex-title challenger Steve Erceg.

Brandon Moreno UFC on ESPN 64 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 23-8-2 MMA, 11-4-2 UFC
• Height: 5’7″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 70″
• Last fight: Decision win over Amir Albazi (July 27, 2024)
• Camp: Team Moreno/Fortis MMA (Mexico)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former 2x UFC flyweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 5 KO victories
+ 11 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Improved boxing technique
+ Accurate left hook
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Hard lead-side kicks
+ Improved wrestling ability
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Solid scrambles and submissions

Steve Erceg UFC on ESPN 64 preview

Staple info:

• 12-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC
• Height: 5’8″ Age: 29 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68″
• Last fight: TKO loss to Kai Kara-France (Aug. 17, 2024)
• Camp: Wilkes Martial Arts (Australia)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Jiu-jitsu black belt
+ National wrestling gold medal (Aus.)
+ Muay Thai state title
+ 2 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Educated lead hand
^ Jabs, hooks, timing change-ups
+ Well-rounded striking arsenal
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Sneaky elbows off frames
+ Good from front-headlock
^ Dangerous submission in transition

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg point of interest: Flyweight fisticuffs

The main event in Mexico City features a battle between top flyweights, Moreno and Erceg.

A well-rounded martial artist who is comfortable on their feet, Erceg poses threats in multiple phases. He’s a large flyweight who isn’t afraid to fight to his frame, and does a decent job of staying long with a solid jab and active kicking game.

Whether Erceg is looking to punish opponents down low with leg kicks or craftily come up high with question mark kicks, the 29-year-old challenger demonstrates excellent control of his lower extremities.

When it comes to his boxing game, Erceg shows an educated left hand that can offer change-ups in both his shot selection and timing. Inside the clinch, he offers the knees you’d expect from a fighter with his height and is also good about sneaking in elbows that he likes to fold over frames.

Although Erceg appears to do some of his best work when countering and sharpshooting from range, he’s not beyond being caught upright off the counter himself in exchanges.

Enter Brandon Moreno.

Initially stepping onto the UFC scene as more of a grapple-first fighter, Moreno has since developed into a more complete and technical striking threat as he’s matured.

Still only 31 years of age, Moreno continues to display almost unshakable composure, win or lose, almost as if he’s determined to finish the fight stronger than his foe. But when you look beyond the brief, brash moments that allow his character to shine, you can see a more mature countering game at play.

Always a fan of the left hook (both coming forward and off the counter), Moreno does a much better job of variating both his timing and targets, often working them off of a jab. The theme of lead-side savvy travels fluently for the Mexican fighter in the way that Moreno attaches lead-leg kicks to his combinations when feeling in stride.

Moreno also has a knack for navigating extended exchanges, which, in this case, could lead to some grappling opportunities.

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg point of interest: Potential grappling threats

Considering the potential for chaos on the feet, no one should be shocked if these two end up tangling on the floor.

Erceg, akin to Alexander Volkanovski, is also a national wrestling gold medalist in Australia and is not beyond switching gears to go for takedowns.

From double legs along the fence to reactive shots in the open, Erceg appears to be a well-versed wrestler from multiple spots. And when opponents attempt to shoot in on Erceg, the Australian standout shows a strong front-headlock that he’s able to parlay into positive positions and potential chokes.

Luckily for Moreno, the Mexican is far from a slouch in the grappling department.

Starting off his career as more of a jiu-jitsu fighter, Moreno smartly swam toward the wrestling side of things (from an offensive standpoint) after being afforded the chance to train stateside through the UFC’s former developmental program.

Although Moreno was still not beyond being taken down or scoring submissions off his back, he offered plenty of glimpses of improvement during his first run with the promotion.

Moreno has been much more aggressive on the feet during this second stint, but doesn’t seem to be ignoring the other parts of his game. As far as grappling and wrestling scrambles go, Moreno was able to come out on top of stanzas against some of the division’s best grapplers in Jussier Formiga and Askar Askarov (who he clearly beat, in my opinion).

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg odds

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Mexican fighter, listing Moreno -250 and Erceg +190 via FanDuel.

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg prediction, pick

Considering the UFC’s current trend of booking fighters on losing skids opposite hometown heroes, then I suppose it’s not surprising to see the betting spread above. Alhough I don’t disagree with who is favored, I caution anyone feeling too confident about either side of this attraction.

Flyweight fights, given the speed and technicality of the action at play, often make for contests that are scored much more closely than some might expect.

Not only is Erceg a fighter who can compete with Moreno’s lead-handed savvy, but the Australian has proven he can carry a high output across five rounds. The elevation of Mexico City will certainly put Erceg to the test, but no one should be surprised he’s able to compete punch for punch with Moreno.

The potential problem, however, is that Moreno, who already has an experience edge, also appears to have some advantages in the wrestling and durability department.

Despite Erceg’s accolades, his wrestling still shows some room for growth when competing with the upper echelon of the weight class. Even though I wouldn’t go so far as to say Erceg is “chinny,” I can’t help but wonder when the point of diminishing returns will come as far as the amount of weight the Australian contender cuts to fight at flyweight.

I’m a big fan of Erceg and wouldn’t mind being wrong on this one, it’s just always hard to back a fighter after the UFC’s already backed them into a proverbial corner. I hope this isn’t another case of the promotion rushing (and potentially ruining) a young product by bringing it to market too quickly, but the pick is Moreno to take a competitive win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Moreno by decision

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg start time, where to watch

As the main event, Moreno and Erceg are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 9:40 p.m. ET (7:40 p.m. in Mexico). The fight streams on ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 64.