AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Wisconsin’s spring election
WASHINGTON (AP) — Wisconsin’s spring election on Tuesday for state Supreme Court, state schools chief and a proposed constitutional amendment requiring photo ID for voting will be the first major indication of the state’s political climate since Republican Donald Trump recaptured the White House in November.
Trump edged Democrat Kamala Harris in Wisconsin by just 0.86 percentage points, the tightest margin of any state. That narrow win, as well as a highly competitive 2023 state Supreme Court contest, could foreshadow the possible paths to victory for this year’s statewide campaigns.
In the state Supreme Court race, Dane County Judge Susan Crawford and Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel look to replace outgoing Justice Ann Walsh Bradley, the court’s longest-serving member, who announced last April that she would not seek a fourth 10-year term. Wisconsin Supreme Court seats are officially nonpartisan, but voters as well as the state’s party establishments routinely rally behind certain candidates based on their judicial philosophies and records.
Crawford has the backing of Democrats and progressives, including an endorsement this week from former President Barack Obama. Schimel has support from Republicans and conservatives, including endorsements from Trump and Elon Musk.
Liberal-leaning justices gained a 4-3 majority on the court in 2023 for the first time in 15 years after Justice Janet Protasiewicz defeated former Justice Dan Kelly for a seat previously held by a conservative jurist. Bradley’s retirement gives conservatives an opportunity to retake the majority ahead of high-profile cases on abortion, unions and voting rights.
At the top of Tuesday’s ballot is the race for state superintendent of public instruction, the position responsible for managing Wisconsin’s 900,000-student, $9 billion public school system. Incumbent Jill Underly seeks a second four-year term against Brittany Kinser, an education consultant and founder of a state literacy initiative. While that role is also nonpartisan, Underly has the backing of the state Democratic Party and the state teachers’ unions, while Kinser is backed by the state Republican Party.
Underly placed first in the Feb. 18 top-two primary with about 38% of the vote, followed by Kinser with about 34%. Another candidate with support mostly from Democrats placed third with about 27%, not enough to advance to Tuesday’s general election. Underly was first elected in 2021 with 58% of the vote against Republican-backed candidate Deborah Kerr.
In any statewide election in Wisconsin, Democrats tend to win by large margins in the populous counties of Milwaukee and Dane (home of Madison), while Republicans win by wide margins in the smaller, more rural counties that stretch across most of the state. Republican candidates also tend to rely on strong showings in the WOW counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington in suburban Milwaukee, which help counter Democratic advantages in urban areas. Victory is determined by how big those margins are in the respective party strongholds, as well as which side can win over the state’s more competitive swing areas.
In 2024, Harris, who was then vice president, won Milwaukee with 68% of the vote and Dane with 75%, while narrowly losing statewide. In comparison, Protasiewicz in her 2023 court race received 73% of the vote in Milwaukee and 82% of the vote in Dane. She went on to win statewide by an 11-percentage-point margin.
Protasiewicz also won over about a dozen counties favorable to Trump, most notably in Brown County, home of Green Bay, which Trump carried in all three of his White House campaigns.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Recounts are not automatic in Wisconsin, but a trailing candidate may request one if the winning vote margin is less than a percentage point. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Here’s a look at what to expect Tuesday:
Spring election day
The Wisconsin Spring Election will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.
What’s on the ballot?
The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners for state Supreme Court, state superintendent of public instruction and the statewide ballot measure. Besides the statewide contests on the ballot, various local jurisdictions will also hold elections on Tuesday, but the AP will not be tabulating those contests.
Who gets to vote?
Any registered voter in Wisconsin may participate in the election on Tuesday.
What do turnout and advance vote look like?
As of March 1, there were more than 3.8 million active registered voters in Wisconsin. Voters in the state do not register by party.
About 1.8 million votes were cast in the 2023 spring election for state Supreme Court. That was 51% of registered voters and roughly 40% of the voting age population at the time. About 25% of voters cast their ballots before Election Day. As of Thursday, more than 475,000 ballots had been cast before Election Day.
In the Feb. 18 primary, nearly 469,000 voters cast ballots in the race for superintendent, which was 12% of registered voters and roughly 10% of the voting age population at the time.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
The AP first reported results in the Feb. 18 primary at 9:04 p.m. ET, or about four minutes after polls closed. In both the 2023 spring election and the 2024 presidential election, the first results of the night posted at 9:11 p.m. ET. Election night tabulation ended at 12:02 a.m. ET in the Feb. 18 primary, at 2:30 a.m. ET in the 2023 spring election and at 5:47 a.m. ET in the November general election, all with more than 98% of the total vote counted.