'Are you delusional?': 2026 Texas Senate race heats up
AUSTIN (Nexstar) — While the re-election of U.S. Senator Ted Cruz over former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred remains fresh in voters' minds, the primary election for Texas' other seat held by Sen. John Cornyn is less than a year away.
On Wednesday, Cornyn released a video on X formally announcing his re-election campaign. The video highly features President Donald Trump, highlighting the ways Cornyn helped Trump implement his agenda in his first term.
"Now I'm running for re-election, and I'm asking for your support," Cornyn said. "So President Trump and I can pick up where we left off."
Less than six hours later, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton weighed in.
"Are you delusional?" Paxton said on X. While not a candidate yet, Paxton told Punchbowl News he thinks he could win if he raises enough money. "You've constantly turned your back on Texans and President Trump, including trying to stop his campaign in 2024 and saying his 'time has passed him by.' Texans won't believe your lies or forget how you've consistently worked to undermine the President," he continued.
When asked about Paxton calling him delusional, Cornyn replied, "I'm not," in an interview with Nexstar on Thursday morning.
The tale of the tape
On Thursday, Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) released a new poll exploring the 2026 Senate race. TPOR is an upstart organization founded last year, releasing quarterly polls on Texas politics.
"I think it really speaks to the vulnerability of Sen. Cornyn," Luke Warford, who directs TPOR, said. Warford is a former Democratic candidate for the Texas Railroad Commission, and recently penned a New York Times op-ed titled Democrats no longer have the luxury of losing Texas.
The poll claims Paxton currently wins a hypothetical primary by a 38% to 27% margin over Cornyn. It also suggests voters are ready for a change no matter who the opponent is, with 36% of respondents saying Cornyn should be replaced, 27% saying they should consider someone else and only 13% saying Cornyn should be re-elected. The numbers don't get much better when narrowed down to just Republican voters, with only 22% saying he should be re-elected.
Overall, the poll asserts that only 21% of Texans view Cornyn favorably with 43% viewing him unfavorably. By comparison, 35% of Texans in the TPOR poll view Paxton favorably with 40% viewing him unfavorably.
"The top line here is John Cornyn is one of the least popular politicians and least popular public figures in the state," Warford said.
Looking back at a February poll by the Texas Politics Project makes the race seem much closer. Cornyn had a 30% favorability rating compared to 37% unfavorable rating; while Paxton has 37% approval rating with 34% disapproving.
Of note, Allred led TPOR's favorability ratings. The Dallas Morning News reported Allred is considering a second try at the Senate after losing to Cruz in November. According to Warford, his rise in favorability has been accompanied by less name recognition.
"Allred had a net favorability of -1% (in November). He had 43% of Texans (viewing) him unfavorably while 42% viewed him favorably," Warford said. "Now both of those numbers have decreased significantly."
On Wednesday, Cornyn took aim at his potential general election opponent on X, saying "Come and take it, Colin."
Allred responded, "Good luck with your primary, John."
Allred could not be reached for comment. Paxton did not respond to comment on election-related inquiries.