Razor-thin House majority has the GOP sweating

House Republican leadership is hanging on by a thread, struggling to maintain control as members either resign or accept positions in President Donald Trump’s Cabinet. With their already slim majority dwindling, passing Trump’s top priorities is becoming increasingly challenging. 

Right now, the GOP holds a razor-thin five-seat majority in the House—218 Republicans to 213 Democrats—with four vacancies, making every vote crucial. The situation has become so precarious that Rep. Elise Stefanik, Republican of New York, has lost her nomination to Trump’s Cabinet.

CBS News reported Thursday that Stefanik’s nomination for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations was pulled following pressure from her party to decline the role. With margins this tight, Republicans are hesitant to lose another seat, leading party leaders to withdraw her nomination altogether. 

Republican Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho shared the news with reporters on Wednesday.

But what he failed to mention is that Stefanik is the ultimate loser in this debacle. By having her stick around in Congress instead of taking the U.N. ambassadorship, she’s now been relegated to the sidelines—just another backbencher with no real influence. She gave up a potential leadership role and still hasn’t been assigned to any subcommittees.

For someone who spent years climbing the GOP ranks, this is a humiliating fall from grace. Instead of elevating her status on the world stage, Stefanik is now stuck in a Congress where she has no power, no platform, and—thanks to Republican infighting—no clear path forward.

Before the news broke, The Hill reported earlier this month that Stefanik’s confirmation could be postponed until at least April. House Speaker Mike Johnson was reportedly responsible for the delay—which his office has disputed—and believes that Stefanik is far more valuable in Congress than in Trump’s administration.

According to CBS News, Johnson was well aware of the internal conflict surrounding Stefanik’s nomination. Notably, unlike some of her former colleagues, she did not preemptively resign from Congress ahead of the Senate confirmation process.

In some cases, Republicans are even delaying special elections in strong Democratic districts, seemingly to avoid further weakening their majority. 

For example, The Texas Tribune reported Wednesday that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has yet to call a special election to replace the late Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner, who passed away more than three weeks ago.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called attention to Abbott’s delay on Tuesday. 

“Congressman Sylvester Turner sadly passed away on Wednesday, March 5. Why hasn’t the Texas Governor called a special election to fill this vacant seat?” he wrote on X.

With the current vacancies, Republicans can only afford to lose two votes while still maintaining their majority on the House floor. And considering their growing internal divisions, their power may be even more tenuous than it seems. 

Republicans appear to be counting on two Florida special elections to bolster their numbers. The April 1 races will determine who replaces former GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz—the latter of whom is currently serving as Trump’s national security adviser (and making a mess of it). 

While both seats lean Republican, Democratic challengers are putting up a strong fight. In the contest to replace Waltz, Democrat Josh Weil has already raised an impressive $10 million compared to his opponent’s $1 million.

The fact that Republicans withdrew Stefanik’s nomination signals desperation and reflects a party in full-blown panic mode. It shows that they’re terrified they can’t advance Trump’s agenda in Congress without resorting to questionable tactics, and it suggests an even deeper fear: another Democratic upset. 

On Tuesday, Democrats flipped a Pennsylvania state Senate seat in a deeply red district that had previously never elected a Democrat, and that Trump carried by 15 points in the 2024 election. 

If Florida’s special elections come down to the wire, as some Republicans apprehend, the GOP might start worrying about Stefanik’s district next.

While the Florida seats are expected to stay red, Stefanik’s seat isn’t guaranteed for the GOP. Sure, she won reelection by 24 points in November, but Democrats have held the district before, with Bill Owens in the seat from 2009 to 2015. If next week’s special elections are close, Republicans will need to worry that her district could be the next to flip. 

And Democrats sense the opportunity. Before news of Stefanik’s nomination withdrawal, they had planned to target her seat—just as they are in Florida. Seemingly scared of what might happen if increasingly dissatisfied voters have a say, Republicans clearly didn’t want to risk it.

The irony is almost too rich. Republicans, once so confident about their grip on power, are now scrambling to rig the game just to keep their fragile majority intact.