Bad mistake: Tulsi Gabbard just threw Iran a nuclear lifeline

Tulsi Gabbard should check her ‘Iran Nuke’ Signal group — if such a thing exists or existed. Why? Because Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appears to have entered the group chat and has led her astray.

Testifying Tuesday before the Senate Intelligence Committee, President Trump’s director of national intelligence said the intelligence community "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.”

Khamenei is undoubtedly thrilled with this.

His regime is in tatters. His so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’ — Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and a host of other militias — has been badly mauled by Israel in the wake of the Oct. 7. attacks.

And yet here is Gabbard, throwing a lifeline to Khamenei’s nuclear weapons program and doing so in the most public of ways.

This is a classic case of ignoring the sum of the parts that do indeed add up to the whole — and in this case, the whole is that Iran is aggressively chasing weaponization of its nuclear program to re-establish strategic deterrence.

Gabbard needs to remember that her job is not intelligence gathering. The mission of her office is to lead and support intelligence integration, delivering insights, driving capabilities, and investing in the future.

In that sense — and please excuse the cliché — if it walks like a nuclear duck, quacks like a nuclear duck, then it is a nuclear duck. Gabbard is, wittingly or not, failing to process all of the intelligence collected.

Consider that Iran is rapidly accelerating its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. The International Atomic Energy Agency now estimates as of February 8, Tehran has amassed “274.8 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60 percent.”

Bear in mind that nuclear power plants, hospital experiments, and other common commercial uses of low-enriched uranium only require enrichment levels between 3 percent and 5 percent. The only reason to highly enrich uranium past 5 percent is to begin the process of weaponizing it.

To create a mushroom cloud, 90 percent entriched uranium is required. But it also requires a sufficient mass of enriched uranium to sustain a chain reaction that results in a nuclear implosion.

Last December, Iran Watch estimated that Khamenei’s “nuclear program has reached the point at which, within about one week, [it] might be able to enrich enough uranium for five fission weapons.” Given Iran’s ever-increasing centrifuge capacity — the key manufacturing component of enriching uranium — that volume will only exponentially increase.

It is important to emphasize that Iran already has this capability. As Iran Watch noted, Tehran is operating at least “36 cascades of IR-1 centrifuges as well as 30 cascades of more powerful centrifuges (15 IR-2m cascades, 12 IR-4 cascades, and three IR-6 cascades) at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant.”

Iran Watch also reported that Khamenei is operating at least “six cascades of IR-1 centrifuges and two cascades of IR-6 centrifuges at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant and nearly a thousand centrifuges at the Natanz pilot plant, notably the IR-4 and IR-6.”

Significantly, these are just the known nuclear sites in Iran. In October 2024, Israel during its retaliatory strikes on Iran, destroyed the Taleghan 2 nuclear facility — an undeclared Iranian nuclear facility.

Others undoubtedly exist. Israel likely already knows their locations. 

Iran is effective in hiding its nuclear weapons program. In February, Fox News Digital reported that “Iran’s chief nuclear development agency, the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, has been operating out two locations previously recognized as space development and launch sites.” 

These include space facilities in Shahrud and Semnan. Gabbard surely knew this before she began testifying. 

Weaponization not only requires sufficient stockpiles of 90 percent enriched uranium — the equivalent mass of two fifty-pounds bags of dog food is needed for one nuke — but also warheads, ballistic missiles, propulsion fuels and launch pads or vehicles.

These are nuclear red flags that Gabbard cannot overlook.

Gabbard needs to bring Team Trump’s policy approach up to speed vis-à-vis Iran’s nuclear weapons program. This notion that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon is nonsense — or it is intentional parsing, in the full knowledge that that is exactly what Khamenei is intent upon doing.

Either way, it is deceptive. Iran is pursuing or already building all of the components needed to construct, deliver and launch nuclear weapons. It would be foolish from a national security standpoint to wait until Tehran either tests or launches a nuke before connecting all of these obvious dots.

Even the IAEA is sounding the warning bells. Rafael Grossi, its director, warned about Khamenei’s intentions in February when he said, “Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state enriching to this level, causing me serious concern.”

There are signs that others in the Trump Administration are recognizing the magnitude of this rapidly growing threat. The War Zone reported on Tuesday that “a significant force of B-2 Spirit stealth bombers looks to be currently wending its way to the [strategically located] Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia.”

Earlier, on Sunday while appearing on CBS Face The Nation, Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security advisor, warned Iran to “give [its nuclear weapons program] up or there will be consequences.” But Gabbard said they were not building a nuclear weapon. That said, saying “don’t” did not work for the Biden Administration. It won't work for Team Trump, either.

In all likelihood, Iran will stand down only if militarily forced to do so. Khamenei is playing a deeper and longer-term game. He and his regime know that unless Iran becomes a nuclear power, its ambitions of dominating the Middle East will be a lost cause.

Gabbard had a chance during the Senate committee hearing to send a signal that it is indeed a lost cause, full stop. Instead, inexplicably, she fumbled, becoming the latest person in Washington to give Iran a nuclear weapons lifeline. 

Team Trump must reverse course. As we have warned before, we are past midnight in the Gardens of Armageddon and Israel will not wait forever before it acts to mitigate or destroy Khamenei’s nuclear weapons program.

Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan E. Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.