Sweet 16 teams, ranked by likelihood to win the national championship in 2025 women’s March Madness

After the injury to USC’s JuJu Watkins, UConn’s path to the Final Four looks a lot easier. Meanwhile, Notre Dame seems to be regaining its elite form.

Just 16 teams remain in the 2025 women’s NCAA Tournament. March Madness began with 68 teams and we whittled down the field last weekend. Along the way, we saw players face former teams, some squads make statement wins, records broken, history made, and one massive bummer of an unfortunate injury.

March goes on. This weekend, eight teams will be sent to Spokane, Washington, and another eight to Birmingham, Alabama. When the dust finally settles next Monday night, just four teams will remain to vie for a national championship.

We’re ranking the 16 teams remaining, sorting them by their chances to win the national title in Tampa, Florida.

16. Oklahoma

It’s been a fun season for the Sooners – who by the way just landed the nation’s No. 1 recruit in Aaliyah Chavez – and are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2013. Unfortunately for Raegan Beers and co., they’re about to run up against UConn, which has won 12 games in a row since losing at rival Tennessee on Feb. 6. The Huskies are on a mission and Oklahoma is just in the way.

15. Ole Miss

If there’s one thing that’s true about Ole Miss it’s that the Rebels have no back-down in them. Coach Yo’s squad isn’t intimidated by anyone. But confidence might not be enough against Lauren Betts and the Bruins. Even if Ole Miss can pull off an upset, talented and high-scoring teams in LSU or N.C. State awaits.

14. Kansas State

The Wildcats are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2002 and have a real shot at upsetting a USC team that’s going to be playing without superstar sophomore JuJu Watkins. But even if the Wildcats do advance to the Elite Eight, UConn likely awaits. And just like when the Death Star blew up Alderaan, the Huskies will zap the Wildcats.

13. Maryland

Brenda Frese is a great coach, Shyanne Selliers is a talented guard, and the Terps have lots of solid pieces around her. But South Carolina is up next and, unfortunately for Maryland, we’ve seen this movie before.

12. USC

Without JuJu Watkins, there’s a good chance that USC struggles against Kansas State. Even if they beat the Wildcats comfortably, UConn likely awaits. Even with Watkins back in December – a game that the Huskies’ Azzi Fudd only played in for eight minutes – USC narrowly won by two points. Unfortunately for the Trojans, getting to the Final Four seems highly unlikely now.

11. Tennessee

Kim Caldwell’s Lady Vols lost at Texas by just four points earlier this season and have a real chance at pulling off an upset over the Longhorns in the Sweet 16. But if that happens, they’ll face the winner of Notre Dame and TCU. It’s not impossible for Tennessee to beat one of those teams, but they’ll have to play a near-perfect game.

10. North Carolina

Let’s say the Tar Heels can beat Duke, which they did in an absolute rock fight earlier this season in Carmichael Arena with Alyssa Ustby and Reniya Kelly healthy. Up next – if we’re being honest with ourselves – is probably South Carolina. Now, this UNC team and this South Carolina team are very different from the ones that met in the second round last season, where the Gamecocks absolutely bulldozed the Tar Heels. For one, this South Carolina roster doesn’t have Kamilla Cardoso and Ashlyn Watkins. Two, UNC isn’t decimated by injuries like it was a season ago and can actually play more than two scholarship guards. Will those differences be enough, or will Courtney Banghart drop to 0-4 against Dawn Staley?

9. Duke

Ok, let’s flip that last point: Let’s assume Duke beats North Carolina and gets a matchup with South Carolina in the Elite Eight. The Blue Devils lost to the Gamecocks earlier this season in Columbia by 11 points, but the since-injured Ashlyn Watkins played in that game and ACC Rookie of the Year Toby Fournier was ineffective for Duke in that first matchup. It’s also worth noting that, in rematches this season after losing the first game, Kara Lawson is 4-0, notching wins in her second try against North Carolina, Louisville, Notre Dame and N.C. State.

8. Texas

I know Texas is a No. 1 seed, but even if they emerge from a Sweet 16 battle with Tennessee unscathed, it’s somewhat difficult to imagine them beating a team like Notre Dame or TCU in the Elite Eight. The Horned Frogs are playing with momentum and Notre Dame already beat the Longhorns by 10 earlier this season.

7. TCU

TCU beat Notre Dame earlier this season, but Liza Karlen and Maddy Westbeld didn’t play in that game for the Irish. And against a center like Sedona Prince, having post depth like that could make a real difference for Notre Dame. In the Sweet 16 for the first time ever though, the Horned Frogs have already exceeded expectations and are playing with house money.

6. LSU

Kim Mulkey’s Tigers should feel good about their path to the Final Four in that they don’t have to face South Carolina or UConn in Spokane, and their first opponent – N.C. State – is a team they’ve already beaten. But the Wolfpack are a bit of a different team since they saw LSU back in November. For one, Tilda Trygger – who played just four minutes in their last meeting – is now the starting center for N.C. State and has proven to be more than just a serviceable player in the paint. Also, did y’all see what the Wolfpack did to Michigan State?

5. N.C. State

Everything seems to be clicking for the Wolfpack right now, who have lost just once in their last nine games and defeated six NCAA Tournament teams in that span. Madison Hayes is coming off a career-best shooting performance, Saniya Rivers continues to do a bit of everything for them, and it’s March – so Aziaha James is playing well. The question for LSU and likely UCLA is, who is going to stop all these guards?

4. UCLA

One could make the case that, with USC’s Watkins injured, UCLA’s Lauren Betts is the best player left in the tournament. If she flexes her dominance in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, there’s not a team in Spokane equipped to handle the 6-foot-7 center at the peak of her powers.

3. South Carolina

Memories of that February loss to UConn still linger, and folks reminded in the second round that these Gamecocks are indeed vulnerable when they started slow against Indiana and trailed the Hoosiers at halftime. South Carolina then, of course, stomped on the gas in the second half, but the Gamecocks can’t afford to have sluggish halves against any of the teams in the Birmingham 2 region.

2. Notre Dame

The Irish seemed to have gotten their act together and played some of their best basketball of the season in a second-round win over Michigan. That’s the Notre Dame team we saw that was ranked No. 1 in the nation before losing in double-overtime at N.C. State, and that’s the Notre Dame team that’s capable of winning this whole thing.

1. UConn

Most online sportsbooks made the Huskies the betting favorite to win the national title after Watkins’ injury. And indeed, their path to the Final Four just got a lot easier. UConn is rolling and its smallest margin of victory during this 12-game win streak was by 19 points against Creighton. One could easily make the case that UConn has a Big Three – Paige Bueckers, Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd – that’s as good or better than any trio in the country. This could be the year that Geno Auriemma’s Huskies end their national title drought.