From ally to enemy: Turkey is no friend to the US 

Francis Bacon warned that "False friends are more dangerous than open enemies.” For roughly the past 20 years, America has been dealing with a questionable ally: Turkey. Since Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party came to power in 2002, the gap between American and Turkish interests has widened significantly.  

Erdoğan, who has ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, has led Turkey to abandon the secular vision of its founding figure, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. He has systematically suppressed dissent and attacked civil institutions. This process accelerated after the failed 2016 coup attempt, which Erdoğan used as a pretext to purge Turkey’s military, judiciary and education system.  

Under Erdoğan, the Turkey that was once a stalwart ally of the United States during the Cold War has become all but an open enemy. In nearly every major global crisis involving the United States, Turkey has pursued policies at odds with American interests. 

Ankara has actively supported China’s Belt and Road Initiative, increasing its economic dependency on China rather than prioritizing its economic relationship with the United States. Worse yet, Turkey has deepened its defense ties with Russia, a key U.S. rival. The most significant example was its 2017 purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defense system, which led to Turkey’s removal from the F-35 fighter jet program and raised concerns about exposing NATO military technology to Russia. 

In Syria, Turkey’s military interventions have undermined U.S. efforts to stabilize the region. Under Erdoğan, Turkey extorted Europe with the threat of releasing millions of migrants fleeing Syria into the European Union. Turkey is almost certainly a shadow sponsor of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, the al-Qaeda offshoot now currently at the head of Syria’s new government. Turkey has also targeted U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, including the Syrian Democratic Forces, with indiscriminate force that also has killed and displaced Kurdish civilians. 

Erdoğan has been vocal critic of Israel, another erstwhile ally of secular, democratic Turkey, even threatening it with invasion or military attack. His rhetoric and political support for terrorist organizations like Hamas have fueled regional tensions, further complicating U.S. diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.  

Turkey has also played a key role in helping Iran evade international sanctions. Iranian financial networks have used Turkish banks for transactions, and Turkey has facilitated Tehran’s discounted oil and gas exports despite U.S. sanctions. These actions were a direct challenge to American efforts to contain Iran’s influence and reinforce concerns about Ankara's growing alignment with U.S. adversaries. 

Now that Iran’s regional power has been weakened, Turkey is beginning to fill the emerging power vacuum in Syria, and is now the major regional disruptor of U.S. interests. The neo-Ottoman Erdoğan has long harbored even grander ambitions to secure Turkey as the regional power in the Middle East and to be the leader of a belt of Turkic states stretching across Central Asia. But if Washington acts decisively — using diplomatic and economic pressure while capitalizing on Turkey’s internal political struggles — it could encourage political change in Ankara. 

Public discontent in Turkey has been rising. Fifty-five percent of Turks have an unfavorable view of Erdoğan — a trend likely to grow as Turkey’s economic woes continue and Erdoğan becomes even more repressive. His purges of the military have likely created dissatisfaction among some officers, although there is no clear indication of widespread military unrest. 

Additionally, Erdoğan’s political clashes with the Gülenist movement — once a key ideological ally — have further fragmented his base of support. Erdoğan’s decision to arrest his main political rival, Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, has led to massive — and growing — protests in recent days.  

The U.S. must take advantage of this opportunity to reset Turkish-American relations. 

The U.S. should communicate to Turkey’s government and military leadership that it will not tolerate any violent suppression of the ongoing protests. Turkey still relies heavily on U.S. made military systems and equipment; the U.S. can threaten a reduction in military cooperation and subsidies. Likewise, the U.S. could revisit proposals to expel Turkey from NATO. These moves would certainly alarm the Turkish military, which has historically protected secularism and Kemalism in Turkey, and must now find the courage to do so again.  

Thanks to Erdoğan, Turkey is no longer a reliable U.S. ally. There is no future for Turkish-American relations as long as he remains in power. But that could soon change, and both countries would be all the better for it. 

Arman Mahmoudian is research fellow at the University of South Florida’s Global and National Security Institute. Jeff Rogg is senior research fellow at the University of South Florida’s Global and National Security Institute. The views expressed in this article are their own.