GOP warns of closer-than-expected race in conservative Florida district

Republicans are warning of a closer-than-desired special election in Florida’s sixth congressional district as Democrats see fundraising gains in a district President Trump won by double digits.

The party’s frustrations come amid growing interest in the race for national security adviser Mike Waltz’s seat, thanks to the large amounts of cash raised by Democratic candidate Josh Weil, the involvement of national Democratic strategists and concerns shared by some on the right, such as Steve Bannon, over GOP candidate Randy Fine.

Still, Democrats face an uphill climb in the district, which spans a portion of the state’s east coast. Waltz and Trump both prevailed in the district by 30 points in November.

“Randy Fine is going to win this race, but it’s going to be much closer than many people expected,” said Ford O’Connell, a Florida-based Republican strategist. “The Republicans are also, what, one cold away from being in the minority. It’s really important for both parties to win.”

Even the state’s top Republican has acknowledged the margin could be closer than it usually is in the district.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) told reporters on Tuesday that his party would underperform in the election, noting that “it’s a reflection of the candidate running in that race.”

"It's a candidate-specific issue. I think the district is so overwhelmingly Republican that it's almost impossible for someone with an R by their name to lose that district,” DeSantis said. “So I would anticipate a Republican candidate is still going to be successful. Do I think they will get even close to the margins that I received or the president received? No."

Fine and DeSantis have a contentious history. Fine was the first Florida Republican to switch his endorsement from DeSantis to Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.

Conservative media host and former Trump adviser Steve Bannon went even further, warning on his show “War Room” that “we have a candidate that I don’t think is winning and that’s an issue.”

Democrats are realistic about their chances in the deep-red district, but argue that it’s not necessarily about winning the race, but rather about narrowing the margin in a part of the country that has been dominated by Trump.

“We’re under no illusion that we’re going to win either of these,” said one Democratic operative, referring to the special election in the sixth and first congressional districts. “If these were 10 points more Democratic, we would be talking about flipping them.”

A closer-than-usual margin in the district would give Democrats more fodder going into next year’s midterm elections, particularly after a string of victories and overperformances in special elections this year. Democrats are hoping to use a close margin to point to what they say is widespread anger at Trump and Republicans’ agenda.

“These are races that should not, under ordinary circumstances, be on anyone’s political radar. They are safe Republican seats that Donald Trump won by more than 30 points,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters this week. “The American people are not buying what the Republicans are selling.”

Rep. Mike Haridopolos (R-Fla.) noted that Democrats are looking to make the special election “a bellwether for things to come.”

“I think the Democrats are trying to say, let's say he doesn't win by 30. He only wins like 15. They're going to say, ‘Oh, every seat that's within 15 points you could lose,’” Haridopolos said.

Two early indicators to note are fundraising and early voting turnout. According to recent campaign finance filings, Weil raised $9.7 million and has $1.2 million cash on hand. Fine raised just under a million and has $93 cash-on-hand.

According to early and mail-in voting data compiled by Decision Desk HQ, it is estimated Fine narrowly leads Weil, with Republicans expected to swamp Democrats in total voter turnout.

“The biggest thing right now for Republicans is to make sure you raise awareness about it just because Florida statewide, we have basically a 1.2 million voter advantage,” O’Connell said.

“The Dems are focused on this because they want to change the narrative. The Republicans are not as focused on it because most voters don’t know the difference between two and three and four seats in the House,” he added.

Republicans on Capitol Hill are keeping tabs on the race, but say they aren’t worried. National Republican Congressional Committee Chair (NRCC) Richard Hudson (N.C.) told reporters on Monday that he wished Fine would have raised money at a faster rate and got on TV quicker, but later told The Hill he was “not concerned.”

“It’s a Republican seat. We have a strong candidate. He’s up on the air now,” Hudson told The Hill. “If you look at turnout numbers, they’re exactly where they need to be.”

Haridopolos added that Fine and Republicans have stepped up their fundraising efforts in the race.

“He is putting his money where his mouth is, and there's a lot of us raising money for Randy because we need him in Congress,” the congressman said.

Emily Brooks contributed.