Karachi, Dhaka to receive 5.4m climate migrants by 2050: UN
• UN-ESCAP report estimates urban population of Asia-Pacific region to rise by 1.2bn
• Govts in the region asked to boost climate cooperation
ISLAMABAD: Karachi and Dhaka will be the only two cities in Asia-Pacific region among the 10 cities of the Global South that will receive eight million climate migrants by 2050 if the world warms by more than 1.5 centigrade above pre-industrial levels, a UN study finds.
Of those 10 cities, Karachi and Dhaka, projected to receive the most extreme influx of climate-induced migration: 3.07 million additional people in Dhaka and 2.4 million additional people in Karachi, according to the “Urban Transformation in Asia and the Pacific: From Growth to Resilience” report, published by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN-ESCAP).
The report is part of the agenda of the 81st annual session of the UN-ESCAP, opening in Bangkok next month.
It analyses both challenges and opportunities facing cities and towns across the region, which is home to the full spectrum of human settlements, from the world’s largest metropolises to ancient villages and every size of city and town in between.
Karachi suffers greatly from fragmented jurisdiction. As the largest city in Pakistan, it routinely ranks near the bottom of the Global Livability Survey of the Economist Intelligence Unit. Housing estates, home to tens of thousands of families, are run by public sector authorities outside the local government’s control, which contributes to overlapping and unclear jurisdictions unable to coordinate critical infrastructure. This situation can lead to disasters like the August 2020 floods that swept through Karachi, Pakistan but left better-governed cities like Lahore relatively unscathed.
At present, one-third of all migrants come from Asia and the Pacific, while the region is home to 24 per cent of the world’s migrants, some 66.6 million people. The Asia-Pacific region is home to over 2.2 billion city dwellers and many of the planet’s largest megacities. Over half of the 30 largest urban areas in the world call this region home. By
2050, this urban population is expected to grow by 50 per cent, with an addition of 1.2 billion people.
From being 16 per cent urban in 1960, roughly 36pc of South and South-West Asians live in cities as of this decade.
Meanwhile, there are megacities as well including densely-packed Dhaka, Karachi, Mumbai and others. India is projected to become 40pc urban by 2036 and cities are responsible for 70pc of the country’s GDP, which means sustainable urbanisation is essential to the stated goal of achieving developed country status by 2047.
Climate change adaptation and mitigation is a paramount challenge for Asia and the Pacific, which must grapple with vulnerabilities like extreme temperatures, water scarcity, food insecurity and natural disasters. Asia-Pacific countries are among those most severely affected by extreme weather events such as storms, floods and heatwaves.
The report says in the longer term, as the climate crisis accelerates, cities and towns must provide critical adaptation support for those most severely affected by climate-induced migration, which is already becoming evident in some low-lying areas.
Cities are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat because of the urban heat island effect. The tendency for buildings and paved surfaces to absorb heat can make urban areas hotter than their surroundings, further exacerbating the impacts of heatwaves.
The urban population growth in Asia and the Pacific has led to increased demand for water and groundwater exploitation, thereby straining the region’s water resources. Extensive groundwater extraction and the loss of natural buffers have increased the risk of land subsidence. While the threat is most visible in megacities such as Bangkok, Dhaka, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Karachi, Manila, Mumbai, Shanghai and Tianjin, similar conditions are affecting secondary and other cities such as Chittagong in Bangladesh and Semarang in Indonesia.
Buildings, which are ubiquitous and account for between 14pc and 33pc of direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions in Asia and the Pacific, represent one of the most difficult aspects of the global economy to decarbonise.
Remittances are a significant source of financing for Asia and the Pacific. In 2023, four of the top five low- and middle-income recipient countries of remittances were India ($120bn), China ($50bn), the Philippines ($39bn) and Pakistan ($27bn).
Meanwhile, South and South-West Asia and South-East Asia are the sub-regions with the highest concentration of informal settlements in Asia and the Pacific. Almost 43pc of the urban population in South and South West Asia and 25pc of that in South-East Asia live in informal settlements.
The report recommends governments in the region to enhance regional cooperation to effectively and jointly respond to environmental and socioeconomic vulnerabilities by developing collaborative urban networks that facilitate the sharing of knowledge and best practices among cities, thus enabling them to act as catalysts for regional leadership for the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals and the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
Published in Dawn, March 24th, 2025