Saturday Was A Good Day In The 2025 NCAA Tournament But Sunday Could Be Off The Charts
What a day of basketball we have ahead of us
Half of the Sweet Sixteen was set Saturday with #9 Creighton falling to #1 Auburn in the South, 82-70, #8 Gonzaga zapped by #1 Houston in the Midwest 81-76, #2 St. John’s losing to #10 Arkansas 75-66, #2 Tennessee knocking off #7 UCLA 67-58, #3 Texas Tech taking out #11 Drake 77-64, #3 Wisconsin being upset by #6 BYU 91-89, #4 Purdue sending a stubborn #12 McNeese St home 76-62 and #5 Michigan coming back to top #4 Texas A&M 91-79.
Dan Dakich and a couple of other commentators have argued that the NCAA tournament has suffered because upsets are less common after NIL and transfer rules transformed the NCAA.
There is some truth to that, but not as much as they think. What has characterized this tournament is failed comebacks. We’ve lost track of how many times this has happened, but without double checking, UNC, High Point, Clemson, Louisville, UC San Diego, VCU, Missouri, Louisville, Robert Morris, UNC again, Wisconsin and Gonzaga all mounted solid comebacks that ultimately fell short.
We haven’t seen the spectacular upsets that we have seen in past tournaments, but you can’t go on a one-year sample. There have been years previously where observers have grumbled about the lack of upsets. It’s nothing unusual. If it happens for several years, then it’s a trend. One year can’t be a trend.
What impressed us on Saturday was first St. John’s inability to hit a shot. Rick Pitino really needs some shooters: the Johnnies hit just 9.1 percent from behind the line and 28 percent overall.
Tennessee shot really well from three point range and still beat UCLA by just nine points.
Maybe it’s us, but Auburn seems vulnerable. They’ll face Michigan next weekend in the Sweet Sixteen and that should be interesting.
The Sunday games are no joke: UConn and Florida is a rumble. Illinois and Kentucky could be compelling but it won’t surprise us if the Wildcats run away with it. Alabama should beat St. Mary’s but the Gaels are very tough-minded. We see Maryland beating Colorado State and Ole Miss knocking off Iowa State.
New Mexico’s Richard Pitino and Tom Izzo are close but that’s not gonna save the Lobos. And finally, Arizona should be the favorite against Oregon but those two have some history and it could get more passionate than normal.
Some quick ACC notes: first, Ryan Odom got his first recruit when local point guard Chance Mallory, who had committed to Tony Bennett then re-opened the process, has recommitted to the ‘Hoos. He’s just 5-9 but is well regarded. He says he always wanted to stay home so that’s nice that it worked out for him. Turns out Odom had been avidly recruiting him for VCU anyway. Pretty good for your first weekend on the job.
And new NC State coach Wade is apparently going to bring new celebrity manager Amir “Aura” Khan with him as a graduate manager. The guy has 12 NIL deals, which is amazing, and has the McNeese cheerleaders wearing socks with his face on them. That’s just surreal.
Also, new Florida State coach Luke Loucks has hired a couple of assistants, Michael Fly and Gerald Gillion. Both are FSU guys and both have head coaching experience.
And at Miami, former Duke assistant Jai Lucas is going to have to remake his roster. Jalil Bethea is gone as are Paul Djobet and Kirk Huie. He may end up completely overhauling the roster, but in the Age of the Portal, that’s not the awful problem it would have been 10-20 years ago.