UFC London predictions
Leon Edwards didn’t get an immediate championship rematch and now he badly needs a win if he’s ever to get close to gold again.
That’s an unfair scenario for a fighter that dropped his title in his first loss in nine years, but that’s also reality. Edwards had to scrape and claw just to earn a championship fight with Kamaru Usman and one gets the sense the UFC is in no rush to throw Edwards back into the title mix against Belal Muhammad or anyone else. For whatever reason, “Rocky” has never been pushed as a favorite son, and a loss in Saturday’s UFC London main event could leave him in no man’s land.
Sean Brady is theoretically in a better position. Should he defeat Edwards, it would cap off an incredible three-fight run. After a humbling loss to Muhammad, Brady rebounded with wins over two past UFC title challengers, Kelvin Gastelum and Gilbert Burns. Taking out a former UFC champion? It won’t move Brady to the front of the line (that’s Shavkat Rakhmonov’s spot whenever he’s healthy), but it puts him on the short list and that’s a great place to be in the eyes of the matchmakers.
The co-main event has similar stakes with former light heavyweight king Jan Blachowicz fighting white-hot contender Carlos Ulberg. Again, we have the more proven name fighting for survival, while the up-and-comer can make a legitimate case for a title shot with a win. In fact, an impressive performance could push Ulberg closer to a title shot than any of Saturday’s competitors.
What: UFC London
Where: The O2 Arena in London
When: Saturday, March 22. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 4 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Leon Edwards (T2, P4P-12) vs. Sean Brady (5)
Surprisingly (to me, anyway), Leon Edwards is a slight underdog according to our pals at FanDuel and that’s mostly been the case in the lead-up to this bout. To what can we attribute this disrespect?
Nearly 30 fights into his 14-year fighting career, is Edwards considered washed? Was his uninspiring title fight loss to Belal Muhammad that damaging to his reputation? Do people think Sean Brady is just that good?
Brady is certainly a reasonable pick on his own merits. The Philly native was a blue-chip prospect in his pre-UFC days and he mostly delivered on that promise before running into Belal Muhammad. In his recent wins, he’s reminded his boosters of his high-caliber skill set: he’s a great wrestler, has good hands, and is a plus-athlete in the welterweight division.
My assumption is that after seeing Edwards out-wrestled by Muhammad for five rounds, oddsmakers and bettors like Brady to emulate that game plan. I’m not convinced. Maybe he can have success early, but Edwards typically isn’t as easy to control on the ground as Muhammad made it look. And I doubt Brady can keep the same pace as Muhammad for 25 minutes.
Edwards will do enough damage on the feet and even break out some of his own offensive wrestling to win this on the cards.
Pick: Edwards
Jan Blachowicz (5) vs. Carlos Ulberg (10)
Jan Blachowicz is way more experienced than Carlos Ulberg. He’s fought a higher level of competition, he’s more well-rounded, and he still has plenty of pop in those venerable hands. He’s the better fighter.
He also just turned 42.
That’s eight years older than Ulberg, and even in the heavier weight classes that are more favorable to aging fighters, it’s hard not to consider Blachowicz’s mileage when picking this fight. He’s also coming off of a layoff due to shoulder surgery, which seems suboptimal.
And yet!
Blachowicz by decision.
Pick: Blachowicz
Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin Holland
This matchup has me thinking of a classic Simpsons bit.
Kevin Holland is back at welterweight. That’s good!
He’s facing a grappler. That’s bad.
His opponent, Gunnar Nelson, is 36 and this is just his third fight in the past five years. That’s good!
Nelson beat his past two opponents and usually only loses to ranked welterweights. That’s bad.
Holland is making a two-month turnaround. I think that’s bad? And yes, you can go now.
Sorry, even though he’s doing the right thing and dropping back down to 170 pounds, I’ve just lost all faith in Holland making the necessary improvements to be a relevant contender again. Nelson is no world-beater and he’s entering the twilight of his career, but he’s still too much on the ground for Holland. “Gunni” snags a submission in the second round.
Pick: Nelson
Molly McCann vs. Alexia Thainara
This was supposed to be a layup for Molly McCann. She was originally scheduled to fight Istela Nunes, a veteran with an ignominious 0-4 UFC record tailor-made for McCann to style on in front of a home crowd. But Nunes is out and stepping in for her is recent Contender Series signing Alexia Thainara, who presents all kinds of problems on paper.
There’s nothing fancy about Thainara’s game. Her standup is a work in progress, though she certainly enjoys letting her fists and feet fly, and her takedowns are primarily comprised of tackling her opponent to the ground. Hey, if it works it works. And once Thainara is on the mat, she is a threat.
Given all that, you have to be worried for McCann here. We all know she’s capable of fun striking matchups and Thainara could occasionally oblige, but we also know she has limitations when it comes to grappling, limitations that Thainara will exploit. I don’t trust McCann to keep this one standing nor to get it back to the feet if Thainara puts her on her backside.
Thainara is the trendy pick of the week and it’s entirely possible we’re all massively overrating this UFC debutante’s chances, but I’m riding the wave here and picking her to beat McCann by submission.
Pick: Thainara
Jordan Vucenic vs. Chris Duncan
Fight of the Night candidate here between two entertaining additions to the impossibly deep lightweight roster.
Perhaps to a fault, Chris Duncan likes to let the fight come to him. The results have been fine so far as he has a great mixture of toughness and timing, which allows him to lure his opponents into danger. That’s what makes this matchup perfect because Jordan Vucenic is going to pressure early to kickstart the action.
Whether Duncan can find an opening for his own offense is the question. Vucenic enjoys striking, but also has legit submission skills, so he has plenty of options to prevent Duncan from sussing out his next move. Duncan will catch Vucenic plenty, but enough to overcome the diversity and volume Vucenic will bring to the fight? I doubt it.
Keep your eyes locked on what should be a thrilling three-rounder that Vucenic takes by decision.
Pick: Vucenic
Nathaniel Wood vs. Morgan Charriere
Speaking of Fight of the Night, what an opener we have between Nathaniel Wood and Morgan Charriere.
Wood always finds himself in a scrap regardless of who he’s fighting and that will be the case again Saturday. I’ll be surprised if he can simply use his grappling to impose his will on Charriere, so he’ll likely have to rely on his always improving striking to keep this one interesting. I give Wood the slight speed advantage, while power is definitely on Charriere’s side.
“The Last Pirate” has sneakily become one to watch in the featherweight division. He had all the makings of a contender after a successful Cage Warriors run, but has also proven to be a valuable action fighter for the UFC with bonuses in each of his first three appearances for the promotion. He’s willing to absorb damage if it means catching Wood with bigger shots.
I see another main card fight going to a decision, with Charriere narrowly edging out a win.
Pick: Charriere
Preliminaries
Jai Herbert def. Chris Padilla
Lone’er Kavanagh def. Felipe dos Santos
Mick Parkin def. Marcin Tybura (10)
Christian Leroy Duncan def. Andrey Pulyaev
Shauna Bannon def. Puja Tomar